The central bank issued the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021. The strategy we have studied and recognized as a kind of main mold board has the following concerns:
1) steady growth remains the top priority. The report "upholding stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability" has changed from "doing a good job" to "strengthening cross cycle regulation". It will face greater pressure on steady growth and more active policies. 2) The attention of wide credit has increased. In the next stage of the main policy ideas, the focus is to expand credit. The overall attitude of the credit conference should be consistent with that of January 18. 3) Leverage has room to improve. "The macro leverage ratio has decreased steadily, creating space for the future financial system to continue to increase the support of the real economy". The implication is that there is room to increase leverage this year, which also points to wide credit. 4) Monetary policy will remain stable and loose. In the fourth quarter, "no flood irrigation" was mentioned again. We think it can not be simply interpreted as the end of loose monetary policy. In column 1, it is clear that we should pay attention to interest rate indicators rather than quantitative indicators. 5) Marginal relaxation of real estate policy. The report deleted "maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies" and retained "no speculation in real estate". 6) In terms of China's inflation, the central bank pointed out that "in the future, the CPI operation center may rise slightly over the previous year and continue to operate within a reasonable range." For overseas imported inflation, the central bank will still "focus on me" to deal with it. On the whole, under the overall sound and loose tone of monetary policy, the attention gradually began to tilt towards wide credit and leverage, which is conducive to the repair of the real economy. The economic growth may be low in the first place and high in the second place during the year. The friendly macro policy environment is also good for the equity market.
The increment of social finance and credit reached a record high. On February 10, the central bank released financial data for January.
1) m2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded significantly. In the early spring festival, enterprises concentrated on paying salaries, bonuses and benefits, which led to the transfer of enterprise deposits to residents. At the same time, the accelerated investment of financial expenditure also supported the recovery of M2 growth rate. 2) Social finance has made a good start. In January, the increment of social finance was 6.17 trillion yuan, a record high, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.5% year-on-year, rebounding for three consecutive months.
Structurally, RMB loans, corporate bonds and government bonds have become the main contributions to the high growth of social finance, driven by a wide currency since the second half of last year, abundant reserves of infrastructure projects at the beginning of the year and the advance of finance.
3) credit data exceeded expectations. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a record high in a single month. Loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. The recovery of enterprise credit demand mainly stems from the demand for physical financing driven by infrastructure under the demand of "stable growth" of economy. Overall, the total amount of social finance data in January was significantly higher than expected. The year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock has steadily rebounded since the end of October, which is in line with our expectations. In the future, the financial data in January may help to strengthen the optimistic expectation of the market on the policy of "stable growth", which is good for a shares. It is suggested to pay attention to infrastructure and large finance related sectors.
In the first trading week after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated upward, while the gem index continued to decline. On the disk side, coal, architectural decoration and steel sectors were among the top gainers; Power equipment, electronics, medicine, biology and other sectors led the decline. In the future, the data of social finance and RMB loans in January obviously exceeded the market expectations. The monetary policy will still adhere to the general tone of "focusing on me". With the promotion of a series of "steady growth" stimulus measures such as the reduction of MLF, LPR and SLF and the sufficient reserve of infrastructure projects, we are optimistic about the follow-up structural market under the background of wide currency + wide credit in the first quarter.
Globally, the covid-19 epidemic situation has improved slightly. As of February 12, 410 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia had been confirmed worldwide, 16.82 million more than the previous week and 4.12 million lower than the previous week. Germany, the United States and Russia ranked among the top in the cumulative number of new diagnoses this week, with 1.4 million cases, 1.32 million cases and 1.3 million cases respectively.
In China, the epidemic situation is obviously under control compared with that before the Spring Festival, but it is still sporadic. On February 13, 26 cases were confirmed in China.
