Rare earth is known as “industrial gold”. The total reserves of global rare earth resources are about 120 million tons, of which China’s reserves are 44 million tons, accounting for about 37.89%, ranking first in the world. Since the Spring Festival, rare earth prices have continued to rise. After China’s rare earth price index reached 420.6074 on February 14, the index rose to 426.7512 on February 15, up 17.11% from 364.3938 at the close on January 14.
Lin Boqiang, President of the China Energy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the Securities Daily that the international commodity prices have generally risen recently, and the rare earth prices have been at the high point of this cycle. From the perspective of historical periodicity, the support for the subsequent rise of rare earth prices is insufficient, there is a certain downward range, and it is expected to stabilize in the later stage.
release of the first batch of rare earth indicators
the tension between supply and demand needs to be alleviated
For this round of rare earth price rise, Wu Longkun, rare earth analyst of rare earth business unit, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily: “At present, the demand for rare earth is increasing. For example, praseodymium neodymium oxides are in short supply, and the supply of corresponding metals is also in a tight balance. Under the strong demand for medium and high-end new energy vehicles and wind power, the demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials is also increasing. This year, the rare earth industry is still in a state of rapid development, the field of terminal application is also increasing, and the price of rare earth products is increasing Will still run high. “
Wang Meiting, a researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, “At present, rare earth prices are rising continuously. On the one hand, the global economic recovery momentum is still continuing, and almost all bulk commodities including crude oil, iron ore, coal and copper mine are in the rising range, which will naturally be transmitted to rare earth products; on the other hand, China is constantly improving its control over the rare earth industry, focusing on reforming the rare earth market pattern and improving market concentration and competitiveness Bargaining power. At the same time, the demand of the global economy, especially in the high-tech field and the new energy industry chain, is still growing rapidly, which leads to a structural mismatch between supply and demand and a natural rise in rare earth prices. As the inhibitory effect of the Fed’s interest rate hike on economic growth still takes time, rare earth prices are expected to rise in the short term. “
In order to ease the tight supply and demand of rare earth products and promote the orderly development of the industry, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on Issuing the first batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022 on January 28. According to the notice, the total control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation were 108000 tons and 97200 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20%. Among them, the mining index of medium and heavy rare earth mines remained unchanged, and the increment came from light rare earth mines. The mining index of light rare earth mines was 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. Most of the increment came from China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , and the mining index of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) was 60210 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 36.44%, accounting for 67.42% of the total light rare earth mining index.
Wu Longkun further said, “the release of the first batch of rare earth general control indicators this year will help alleviate the current shortage of rare earth supply. In the future, we should further increase the total rare earth control indicators, strengthen the linkage between upstream and downstream industries, and promote the coordinated development of rare earth permanent magnet industry.”
In addition, according to the Research Report of Huabao securities, although the two ministries and commissions have issued the first batch of rare earth general control indicators for rare earth mines in 2022, it is now coincided with the rainy season, and the mining of medium and heavy rare earth mines in the south is difficult. It is expected that the supply of medium and heavy rare earth oxides in China will not increase in the first quarter of this year. The contradiction between the supply and demand of rare earth materials in the upstream market and the low price of rare earth materials in the downstream market has changed from the strong contradiction between the supply and demand of rare earth materials in the upstream market to the low price of rare earth materials in the downstream market.
prices are rising like a rainbow
performance of rare earth related companies benefited
Rare earth prices have remained high since the fourth quarter of 2021. In January 2022, the average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 914600 yuan / ton, up 108% year-on-year and 7% month on month; The prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were 2.9908 million yuan / ton and 12.7816 million yuan / ton respectively, up 41% and 54% year on year and 2% and 14% month on month respectively.
In 2021, rare earth has maintained a high industry prosperity, and the upstream and downstream companies of the industrial chain have also benefited from it. The 2021 performance forecast disclosed by four rare earth listed companies, including China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) , Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , shows that the four companies are expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent of 4.9 billion yuan to 5.061 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan to 1.2 billion yuan, 130 million yuan to 160 million yuan and 1.179 billion yuan respectively, all of which have achieved significant growth. For performance growth, most companies said that they mainly benefited from the optimization of the upstream supply side and the support and pull of the downstream wind power, new energy vehicles and other terminal consumer demand. In addition, the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of major rare earth products and the optimization of product structure are also important reasons for the performance growth.
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to increase by 488.58% to 507.79%, with the highest increase. China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) is the largest rare earth company in the world, and its growth is better than the average value of China’s industry. Relying on the controlling shareholder Baotou Iron and Steel Group’s exclusive mining right advantage of Bayan Obo mine, the company’s rare earth ore and smelting separation indicators have accounted for more than 50% of the country for a long time.
Zhang Zhiqiang, chairman of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) once said that China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) will not change its original intention to ensure the supply of high-quality products and its determination to promote the high-quality development of rare earth industry. It will continue to improve the supply capacity of high-quality rare earth raw materials, accelerate the implementation of industrialized operation, constantly promote the reform of marketing mode, and promote the safe, efficient and sustainable development of rare earth industry.
Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) in 2022, the medium and heavy rare earths in the first batch of Rare Earth total control indicators accounted for nearly 18%. It is an important rare earth production enterprise in South China. According to the annual performance express of 2021 disclosed on February 15, in 2021, the company’s rare earth business continued to deepen lean production and improve product quality, continued to optimize product structure, and the sales volume of rare earth deep-processing products increased. At the same time, due to the increase of raw material prices, the operating revenue and profit of rare earth products increased greatly. The company’s rare earth business achieved an operating revenue of about 4.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 56.98%; The total profit was about RMB 229 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 154.34%.
industrial pattern ushers in remodeling
the added value of rare earth products is expected to increase
On December 22, 2021, China rare earth group was officially established, and the pattern of China’s rare earth industry was reshaped. Ao Hong, chairman of China rare earth group, once said that we should speed up the integration, deeply promote the substantive reorganization of rare earth assets, accelerate the optimization of resources, assets and business layout, deeply integrate scientific and technological R & D resources, strengthen the in-depth integration of industry, University, research and application, accelerate the green, digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and lead the independent innovation and green and sustainable development of China’s rare earth industry.
Coordinate the “two resources” and “two markets”, deepen and expand the global layout of rare earth industry and international exchanges and cooperation.
Rare earth has irreplaceable excellent magnetic, optical and electrical properties, which plays a great role in improving product performance, increasing product varieties and improving production efficiency. At present, as the third generation of rare earth permanent magnet materials, Nd-Fe-B permanent magnet materials are the magnetic materials with the best magnetic properties and comprehensive properties. The rapid development of new energy vehicles, wind power, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other fields, as well as the increase of the penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motors in industrial motors, variable frequency air conditioners, energy-saving elevators and other fields, will drive the significant increase of rare earth demand. Specifically, new energy vehicles are the core application field of rare earth demand growth. In the medium and long term, the trend of vehicle electrification is determined, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations in the near future. Among them, permanent magnet synchronous motor occupies an absolute advantage because of its excellent performance, driving the full outbreak of rare earth consumption.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) analyst Liu Mengluan believes that the consumption of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in the field of electric vehicles will exceed 50000 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 47% in five years. In addition, under the guidance of energy conservation and consumption reduction, permanent magnet motors are expected to be widely used in the future due to their excellent energy-saving effect, and the rare earth consumption driven by them can not be ignored. It is estimated that the global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide may exceed 130000 tons by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 13.5% in five years. Under the assumption of steady supply growth, the global supply and demand gap of praseodymium and neodymium oxide will continue to expand.
For the current rare earth price, Wang Meiting said, “Strengthen the layout of the rare earth industry chain and the construction of deep processing capacity, avoid the simple export of rare earth raw materials and improve the added value of the industry. If the rare earth material industry chain can stay in China more and the proportion of localization increases, there will be room for price reduction of relevant finished products downstream of China’s rare earth, and the profits of relevant rare earth industry companies are expected to rise further.”
“Benefiting from the high outlook of the rare earth industry, listed companies in the rare earth sector should seize the opportunity, timely promote the in-depth layout of the industry, open up the upstream and downstream industrial chain, control the rare earth price and improve the added value of rare earth products on the basis of the rapid performance in 2021.” Lin Boqiang said.
