On February 15, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) disclosed the pig sales profile, which showed that in January this year, the company sold 1292600 pigs, with a month on month and year-on-year increase of 20.62% and 76.61% respectively; The sales revenue of live pigs was 1.638 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 34.66%. The company said that the main reason for the large year-on-year increase in pig sales was the normal release of production capacity.
So far, the achievements of most A-share pig raising enterprises in January 2022 have been released. On the whole, in 2022, the pig production capacity of pig raising enterprises continued to release, and the sales volume of pigs showed a growth trend month on month. From the sales price of commercial pigs, although it was close to the Spring Festival, the price of pigs still fell in January.
Guo Dandan, pig analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that it is expected that the supply of raw pigs will continue to release before May 2022, so the pig price will fluctuate lower, and the low point may appear around April. In the second half of the year, with the reduction of supply and the gradual improvement of demand, the pig price will pick up. "Considering that the listed enterprises will expand their output and gradually make up for the elimination, the total number of sows that can be bred is still guaranteed. Therefore, there is limited room for pig price rise, and it may be difficult to enter the next round of pig cycle in 2022."
the selling price of commercial pigs fell month on month in January
In 2022, under the background of continuous release of pig production capacity, pig sales of A-share pig breeding enterprises showed an overall growth trend in January. Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) in January, the sales volume of live pigs increased by 19.07% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 21.86%; The sales volume of commercial pigs in January increased by 3.7% month on month; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) the number of pigs sold (including hairy pigs and fresh products) increased by 22.75% month on month and 50.01% year-on-year.
At the same time, despite the spring festival pork consumption season, pig prices still fell in January. According to the data disclosed by the above pig raising enterprises, the average sales price of commercial pigs (or hairy pigs) in January ranged from 12.92 yuan / kg to 14.09 yuan / kg, with a month on month decrease of more than 10.91% and a maximum decrease of 16.24%.
\u3000\u3000 "Before the Spring Festival, the price of pigs did not rise but fell. Firstly, the slaughter volume of farms increased by about 10% month on month. At the same time, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the slaughter time of farms was shortened, so the slaughter volume of farms increased in a single day. Secondly, farms reduced the weight and slaughter, and some breeding enterprises advanced the planned volume in February, resulting in sufficient supply. Although the demand is supported by the Spring Festival, covid-19 pneumonia continues to occur Fermentation, bad terminal consumption, mismatch between supply and demand, and pressure on pig prices. " Guo Dandan analyzed it to the reporter of Securities Daily.
pig prices may continue to be under pressure in the first half of the year
After experiencing "roller coaster" fluctuations in 2021, pig prices are considered to continue to be under pressure. Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told the Securities Daily that pork prices may show a trend of "going down first and then rebounding" in 2022: "but the extent of the rebound is still unknown. At least from the perspective of cycle, there is still no way to get rid of the impact of centralized listing after large-scale investment in the early stage." New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) said in a recent institutional survey that the company expects the pig price to have "relatively high pressure" in the first half of 2022, with a relatively low point from March to may, and then adjusted relatively.
As a major pig raising Province, Sichuan Province has more than 63 million pigs in 2021, ranking first in China. Zeng Junlin, chief economist and spokesman of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of statistics, once told the reporter of Securities Daily that the recovery target of pig production capacity has been completed ahead of schedule. Between April and may 2022, the supply of pigs will increase. In addition, it is a low season after the Spring Festival. Therefore, it is expected that the pork price "has a high probability of falling" after and before the middle of this year's Spring Festival.
It is worth mentioning that on February 8, the national development and Reform Commission announced that it would start the collection and storage of pork reserves with relevant departments as appropriate. It is reported that many places have launched the "first shot" to stabilize pork prices in the year of the tiger, Sichuan has issued a total of tens of thousands of tons of pork collection and storage tasks, and Hubei Province has launched a new round of provincial pork temporary collection and storage. What impact will this have on industries and enterprises in the downward phase of the pig cycle?
Guo Dandan said: "the government's collection and storage has a great impact on market sentiment and plays a guiding role in pig prices. However, at present, the number of collection and storage is relatively small. After a short adjustment, pig prices still depend on supply and demand. For breeding enterprises, the impact of collection and storage is limited, and farms still need to resist later risks by reducing costs and increasing efficiency."
Jiang Han believes that in a sense, the measures of pork collection and storage are only a move to stabilize pork prices. The fluctuation of pork prices can be suppressed through centralized collection and storage, but it is impossible to completely change the development trend of pork prices on the whole. "For pig breeding enterprises, the government's collection and storage can help the development of enterprises to a certain extent, but the core is still to improve efficiency and reduce costs, further reduce the pressure caused by previous excessive investment, and really let themselves enter an effective cycle of market development."
