Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened up and down differently. After the shock of the three major stock indexes at the beginning of the session, the trend was further differentiated. With the sharp rise and fall of track stocks, the gem index sang all the way and effectively led the Shenzhen composite index upward, while the financial stocks rose and fell, resulting in the shock and fall of the Shanghai index; In the afternoon, the Shanghai index turned green for a time. Fortunately, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed strong performance, and the two cities came back to strength again in the late trading, ushering in intraday highs one after another.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the varieties of topics such as small and medium-sized enterprises generally rose on Tuesday, and the gem index ushered in a reversal for the first time in nearly a month, investors need to pay attention to fast in and fast out, heavy position operation is not suitable, and small and medium-sized enterprises still need a shock bottoming process . On the one hand, we can continue to tap the short-term opportunities of oversold growth stocks and wait for the undervalued blue chips to step back in place.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the financial, real estate and cyclical industries that have recently bucked the trend have declined across the board, and the structural characteristics of the market are still relatively significant. It is worth noting that although the track stocks rebounded in an all-round way, the trading volume of the two cities failed to be effectively enlarged, and the stock game characteristics are obvious. Whether the gem index can detect the periodic low point still needs to be verified . It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the GEM market is more likely to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the market trend was strong on Tuesday, the market style switched again, and the oversold track stocks welcomed the rebound. Considering the sustained efforts of the steady growth policy, is expected to stabilize the market in shock, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, building materials, building materials, TMT and other industries.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the previous make-up decline of heavyweights on the gem is more like the last vent of bears. After the panic, there will be a technical rebound in the day, but it still needs to be noted that the volume energy of the market has not returned to the previous state, and the medium and long-term upward logic remains unchanged, but in the short term, the market will still face the trend of front row differentiation, so we need to pay attention to rhythm and other issues .
As far as the future is concerned, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the high-low switching in the rotation of the market sector is more frequent, the track growth stocks have staged counterattacks, and the stable growth chain is mostly strong. On the whole, against the background of loose liquidity and rising overseas uncertainty risks, we are still optimistic about the performance of value blue chips in the short term.
Guosheng Securities said that because the market volume can continue to shrink, the current Shanghai index does not have the momentum to continue to rise, and it waits for further catalysis on the policy side or emotional side in the form of platform shock in the short term; According to the gem, after continuous adjustment recently, the sharp rise on Tuesday has shown the K-line form of "Morning Star". The short-term bottom may be confirmed, and the probability will get rid of the decline.
The agency further analyzed that after the recent continuous decline of the market, there is a high probability of periodic oversold rebound in the short term . In terms of operation, the valuation of some boom track stocks has been adjusted to a reasonable stage. We can pay attention to the new energy vehicles and photovoltaic downstream sectors that are expected to reverse their difficulties due to the rise of raw material prices last year. However, in the short term, if there is a periodic rebound, it is recommended to reduce the position. In addition, we can configure some stable growth sectors such as infrastructure, real estate and banks to hedge the adjustment risk, digital economy, specialization and innovation Thematic concepts such as the meta universe can also be focused on.
In the macro aspect, YueKai Securities pointed out that at present, it is in the transition period from wide liquidity to wide credit. The growth of social finance and the credit growth of the enterprise sector are higher than expected. The strength of fiscal policy is appropriate. The infrastructure continues to invest. The banking sector is expected to improve the quality of assets and drive the performance growth . We expect that the banking sector will maintain the upward momentum at the beginning of this year, and we are optimistic about the continuous repair of the undervalued sector whose fundamentals continue to improve.
In addition, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that the new social finance in January was much higher than expected, and the wide credit pattern was basically established. Since 2004, China has experienced six credit expansion cycles. The agency reviewed the macro background and stock market performance of these wide credit cycles. The main conclusions include: (1) credit expansion is good for the stock market. In the past six credit expansion cycles, monetary policy and credit easing will significantly rebound A shares in the short term. The social finance in January exceeded expectations and brought a good long time window to the market.
(2) there is no absolute conclusion on the structural market during the credit extension period . The core determinant is whether there is an upward nominal economy in the credit expansion cycle. In the upward nominal economy cycle, social finance is upward, and the pro cyclical value performance is better. For example, from 2016 to 2017, social finance is upward in the downward nominal economy cycle, and the performance of growth stocks will be better, For example, the first quarter of 2019.
(3) looking back at the current time point, under the favorable conditions of wide credit cycle in the short term, we are optimistic about the overall performance of the market . However, as we judge that the overall nominal economic growth will decline this year, the pro cyclical sector may not have a better performance. Structurally, we are optimistic about the performance of science and technology growth companies under the cycle logic of emerging industry zhugra.
In terms of operation strategy, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that under the tone of stable growth, infrastructure investment is expected to underpin the economy. Considering the capital factors such as special debt and implicit debt supervision of local governments, it is expected to achieve a growth rate of 6.5% throughout the year, and infrastructure REITs is expected to become a potential source of incremental infrastructure funds. The infrastructure industry chain may usher in extreme changes in the basic area. At present, the overall sector is undervalued and low allocation. We suggest to select infrastructure industry chain companies that benefit from the expected rise of infrastructure development, such as cement, construction, new power system, digital infrastructure, power station operation and so on.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that global capital expenditure is expected to start a new upward cycle. According to our statistics, the capital expenditure of leading companies in various industries in the next five years is unanimously expected. Electric smart vehicles, energy transformation under carbon neutrality and investment in electric power and environmental protection, digitization and semiconductors are expected to become the main driving forces in the upward cycle of this round of capital expenditure. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of upstream energy and materials, such as petroleum and petrochemical, industrial metals, cement, etc. At present, China's steady growth policies are relatively intensive. The financial data in January exceeded the market expectations, and the infrastructure has been gradually developing. It is suggested to pay attention to the pro cyclical sector of steady growth, especially the investment opportunities of upstream commodity stocks .
