core view
In January 2022, the performance of major categories of assets ranked as the leading equity market and bond market in the commodity market. Commodity prices rose and fell, and crude oil prices rose sharply against the background of strong demand and tight supply. The central banks of the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom and other developed countries have tightened monetary policies one after another, and the global stock markets have pulled back to a certain extent. The global bond assets were affected by the tightening of monetary policy, the bond yields of many countries rose, and China's bond market went out of an independent market.
In February 2022, our major asset allocation strategies are as follows:
Main ideas of industry allocation: adhere to the medium and long-term industrial development logic and continue to be optimistic about medium and small cap growth stocks. In January, the A-share market was significantly adjusted, the large blue chips were relatively resistant to decline, and only the banking industry in the primary industry gained positive income. We believe that the current adjustment of the A-share market is coming to an end. The law of "restlessness in spring" means that there is a high probability of A-share rise in February. At the same time, the current market liquidity and policy environment are very friendly to the market. Looking forward to February, we adhere to the general logic of medium and long-term industrial structure upgrading as the main line, comply with the policy guidance, carry out industry configuration, and focus on small cap hard technology stocks, including electronics, communications, power equipment, new energy, computer and other industries.
Main ideas of bond market: in terms of interest rate bonds, the market is currently at the junction of "bull market in the second half" and "shock market", and the bond market may face pressure at the end of the quarter. When the "two sessions" were held in early March, the national economic growth target in 2022 may be at the expected upper limit of 5.5%, and the corresponding fiscal deficit ratio and the issuance scale of local special bonds may also exceed the expectation; In addition, the infrastructure investment at the beginning of the year released in March and the real estate sales and investment data at the bottom will gradually verify the position of the bottom of the economy. Throughout the year, the economy bottomed out as early as the end of the first quarter. In the context of the economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate hike in March, February is still the window period for the central bank's operation. It is not ruled out that the easing signal may be released again, but the short-term benefits are limited. In terms of credit debt, pay attention to the credit debt of medium and high-grade subjects. In January, the bond market credit spread was divided. Specifically, the grade spread narrowed and the term spread differentiated. In January, there were 2 issuers whose ratings were upgraded and 11 issuers whose ratings were downgraded, of which 7 were from the real estate industry. It is recommended to allocate carefully in the future.
main ideas of commodity market: macroscopically, the Federal Reserve accelerated the reduction of QE, which was responded by the central banks of Europe and the UK. It was once again confirmed that the process of global liquidity tightening was further accelerated, the US dollar remained high and volatile, some emerging markets were exposed to risks, and global risk appetite was affected, which was not conducive to the continued significant strength of commodities as a whole, It is difficult to have the opportunity to trend long, but under the background that the market pays more attention to short logic, the supply and demand factors are more critical. It is recommended to configure bulk commodities as standard.
risk tip: the macro economy is less than expected, the epidemic spread causes the imbalance between supply and demand, the overseas market fluctuates sharply, and the monetary and fiscal policies exceed expectations.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : A shares may have bottomed out periodically. What do you buy?
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : the short-term counterattack is not finished, and the medium-term reversal needs to wait
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : taking history as a mirror, how did the stock market perform in the past wide credit cycle?
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : it is recommended to over allocate A-Shares and Hong Kong shares and moderately reduce the allocation of overseas assets
