Glyphosate sector index rose again, and phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry sector closed red for many consecutive days.
glyphosate enterprises won the "pre increase king" of A-share performance in 2021
In 2021, the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus promoted the six-year high of glyphosate price to a certain extent. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of yellow phosphorus was 15900 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021. Under the influence of power restriction, the price of yellow phosphorus rose to 66000 yuan / ton at the end of September. Affected by the cost, the price of glyphosate increased from 28500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 84000 yuan / ton at the end of the year. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus has fallen below 31000 yuan / ton, and the price of glyphosate has begun to fall.
Among the glyphosate enterprises that have released the annual report forecast, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) has the largest increase in performance. It is expected that the net profit will increase by 2.96 billion yuan to 3.26 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7227.36% - 7960.09%. Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) it is estimated that the profit in 2021 will be 4.2-4.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 573.14% - 605.19%. Performance growth is also reflected in last year's share price.
supply contracted, and the price rise of glyphosate this year is still expected to be strong
According to pesticide information network, on February 11, Bayer's global active ingredient production director wrote to customers that due to a mechanical failure in the manufacturing plant of a supplier of key raw materials, Bayer's glyphosate production will decline sharply. It is expected that the maintenance time of the above production line will be about three months.
Debang Securities pointed out that the production of the world's largest glyphosate supplier is blocked or leads to supply shortage. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the total capacity of glyphosate in China is 752000 tons / year. After years of integration and elimination of overseas production capacity, only Bayer is left. At the same time, Bayer is also the world's largest glyphosate supplier, with a glyphosate production capacity of about 370000 tons / year, accounting for about 32.98% of the global production capacity. According to the notice issued by Bayer, due to the mechanical failure of Bayer's key raw material suppliers, it will take about three months to resume production, which will lead to the obstruction of Bayer's production or the shortage of supply, and the glyphosate price is expected to increase.
In addition, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the new capacity of glyphosate in the next one to two years is still limited. except that Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd. (subordinate to Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ) will add 50000 tons of capacity in 2022, other companies did not disclose the new capacity.
According to Zhuo Chuang consulting, the price of glyphosate has remained basically stable since the middle of January. At present, the mainstream quotation of 95% technical glyphosate in China is 72000-78000 yuan / ton, which is still nearly four times higher than the average price of 20000 yuan / ton in the past. if glyphosate prices rise again in the future, the profit center of glyphosate enterprises is still expected to improve.
the price of chemical fertilizer has continued to rise since January
recently, the international dispute between Russia and Ukraine has led to soaring food prices. In addition, affected by the rising prices of bulk commodities such as oil prices, the international price of chemical fertilizer has increased sharply, especially with the approach of spring farming. Spring sowing is the biggest demand for chemical fertilizer and agricultural film every year. the price of chemical fertilizer in China has also been running at a high level for many months. Take urea as an example. At present, the ex factory price of 2600 yuan / ton and the wholesale price of more than 3000 yuan / ton are at a high level in recent 10 years. Since January, the prices of urea and phosphate fertilizer have still risen. in 2021, benefiting from the price rise, the net profit of phosphate fertilizer leader Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) in 2021 is expected to increase by about 12 times, and the performance of nitrogen fertilizer leader stocks is also excellent. The rise in the price of urea and phosphate fertilizer is the primary factor to promote the profitability of enterprises.
Many securities companies are still optimistic about the prosperity of the chemical fertilizer sector. Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the supply side reform and limited new production capacity have greatly improved China's past surplus supply of chemical fertilizer, and the profit of chemical fertilizer products has shown a central upward trend. In recent years, China has carried out supply side reform for industries with excess capacity, and gradually cleared the excess capacity in the industry through environmental protection rectification and returning to the park. Through the two-way control of supply and demand, the capacity utilization rate in the industry has rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the industry pattern has been gradually improved. At the same time, China's new capacity of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer is relatively limited. As a coal chemical product, nitrogen fertilizer is subject to two-way constraints of energy consumption and carbon emission, and the new capacity is regulated ; Ammonium phosphate products are located in the national list of restricted production capacity. According to the 14th five year plan, the new production capacity will also be strictly limited. The superimposed industry will continue to eliminate the expanded production capacity, and the industry pattern is expected to be continuously optimized.
In addition, the No. 1 central document was released in 2022. China's No. 1 central document, which has been in the eighteen year for 2004-2021 years, focuses on the theme of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". It emphasizes the priority among priorities of the three rural issues in the period of China's socialist modernization. in the past 18 years, the release time of Document No. 1 is concentrated from late January to mid February, which will give a certain boost to the agricultural sector and help the peak season of spring farming.
