“The short-term counterattack is not over, and the medium-term reversal needs to wait.” On February 15, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) chief strategy officer Chen Guo stressed at the 2022 spring investment strategy meeting of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities “gold digger in the year of the tiger” that “three low and one change” will be the main allocation line that can be grasped in the A-share market in 2022.
“Three low and one change”, that is, on the basis of low level, undervalued value and low congestion, there are fundamental marginal improvement expectations. Specifically, Chen Guo emphasizes three major allocation ideas. One is countercyclical upward, that is, industries with profit margin improvement (food and beverage, electric power, infrastructure and building materials), upward inflection point of industry cycle (intelligent vehicle and accessories, animal husbandry) and price rise cycle chain such as crude oil chain.
The second is the high dividend strategy, that is, the sectors with stable profits, high dividends and strong defensive, such as real estate, banking, steel, coal, transportation, public utilities, etc.
Third, we should pay attention to the rebalancing of chips in the low distribution industry, and pay attention to power, banking, computers, communications, etc.
At the same time, Chen Guo admitted that the big opportunity for growth still needs to wait. “The high degree of congestion may be one of the important reasons for the continued weakness of some high boom industries since the end of last year. This year, the degree of congestion needs to be out of the danger zone.”
\u3000\u3000 α Difficult to find, the operation mode of A-share market is changing
From institutions outperforming individuals to the intensification of inter agency competition, the operation mode of A-share market is changing, “more and more forward-looking and faster.” Chen Guo said.
The accelerated process of institutionalization is a significant feature of the structure of A-share investors. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the market value of institutional investors accounted for more than 30% of the free circulation market value of a shares. According to Chen Guo’s analysis, in the market α The difficulty of has increased, and the market responds faster, more fully and more forward-looking to the expected changes in fundamentals.
For the reasons for this change, Chen Guo said that it may be related to the vigorous development of quantitative funds and strategies. In recent years, quantitative funds have made significant development. According to statistics, the total scale of stock quantitative strategy has exceeded trillion, and there are nearly 30 10 billion quantitative private placements.
At the same time, the alpha strategy found by the active fund is often quickly interpreted as a new beta. Chen Guo said that most quantitative funds themselves have a high trading frequency, often use leverage and long short strategies flexibly, and will sell decisively in stylized trading when the market fluctuates greatly, amplifying the market beta to a certain extent.
“The traditional boom trend investment is facing challenges, that is, the downward inflection point of stock price is more and more likely to lead the inflection point of fundamentals. The current investment strategy needs to consider quantitative factors.” He said so.
the profit cycle of A-Shares is down, and pay attention to the contrarian upward sector
It is believed that the current monetary policy is intertwined with the current downward policy, which is similar to the current market. In addition, the two time points also face overseas pressure. 2012 is the European debt crisis, and 2022 is the expectation of global interest rate hike.
Structural opportunities can be focused this year. But at the same time, it is undeniable that 2022 is also a period when the A-share market is facing many challenges. In particular, the profit growth rate of A-Shares may decline significantly in 2022. Chen Guo said that in 2021, the growth rate of A-share profits was about 15-20%, which was at a high level in recent 12 years under the low base effect; In 2022, under the downward pressure of the economic cycle and the downward pressure of PPI, the profit growth is expected to slow down significantly compared with that in 2021, which is expected to fall from about 15-20% to about 0-5%.
In the context of the downward profit cycle of a shares, Chen Guo believes that the upward performance sector has stronger risk resistance against the trend.
From the perspective of marginal changes in profits, looking back on 2021, the reasons for the lower performance than expected mainly include three aspects: the damage of the epidemic, cost pressure and the decline of the real estate cycle. By 2022, the above three factors are expected to reverse. Chen Guo said that under the catalysis of short-term policies, the real estate infrastructure chain may be stronger. However, from the perspective of fundamental sustainability, it is more optimistic about the weak recovery of consumption driven by the subsequent epidemic alleviation and economic stabilization. Among them, food and beverage, electric power, infrastructure, building materials and tax exemption can be focused on.
From the perspective of industry cycle, the sectors currently in the downward to upward cycle and with strong expectation of prosperity improvement mainly include smart cars and accessories (benefiting from product cycle and core shortage mitigation), food (benefiting from epidemic recovery and profit improvement), and animal husbandry (benefiting from pig cycle reversal expectation).
stabilize the word and select “three low and one change”
Looking forward to the spring of 2022, Chen Guo put forward eight words “the twists and turns ahead, and the word stability takes the lead”. He said that judging from the general trend of this year, the short-term counterattack is not over, and the medium-term reversal has to wait.
The downward pressure on performance brought by the economic bottoming period, the rhythm and intensity of policies, the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve and the China policy of the US mid-term election year are the twists and turns that the market will face in 2022. At present, Chen Guo believes that we should focus on the selection of low, undervalued and low congestion, and have the expectation of fundamental marginal improvement, that is, the opportunity of “three low and one change”.
In terms of specific directions, Chen Guo suggested that first, pay attention to the sectors that go up against the cycle, such as food and beverage, electric power, infrastructure and building materials with improved profit margin, intelligent vehicle and accessories, animal husbandry and breeding at the upward turning point of the industry cycle, and the crude oil chain on the price rise cycle chain.
Second, choose the high dividend strategy, that is, pay attention to the sectors with stable profits, high dividends and strong defensive, such as real estate, banking, steel, coal, transportation and public utilities. “The earnings of these leading stock enterprises themselves fluctuate relatively little and may be additionally supported by stable growth policies.”
Third, pay attention to the low distribution industries of institutions, such as power, computer, communication and other industries.
At the same time, Chen Guo bluntly said that the great opportunity for growth still needs to wait. “The internal and external resonance of high congestion and the rapid rise of US bond interest rates is an important reason for the continued weakness of some high boom industries since the end of last year.” He said that when the interest rate of US bonds tends to stabilize, we can gradually pay attention to the profit trend in growth stocks and determine the subdivision directions with low congestion, including photovoltaic, smart cars and accessories and automotive electronics, military industry, IGBT, smart grid, etc.
