With the weakening marginal impact of the epidemic and the adjustment of policies, tourism has been repaired. At present, the industry as a whole has stabilized and rebounded, with high capital attention, and the repair market is on the way. Although the sector fluctuated significantly after the short-term rapid rebound, the sector can still pay attention to bargain hunting under the background of gradual improvement of expectations.
Behind the rebound in the tourism sector, industry insiders believe that it is related to the recovery expectation of outbound tourism. Since February 2022, there has been a growing call for the resumption of global outbound tourism. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, since February, more than 60% of countries and regions around the world have opened or planned to relax outbound tourism. In addition, Disney, Tui and other global tourism leaders performed better than expected in the fourth quarter, and the global tourism industry recovered strongly. It can be predicted that 2022 will be a turning year after the international travel epidemic. it is suggested to pay careful attention to the outbound tourism leaders Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) and tax-free leaders China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism.
Although China's tourism market is still suppressed by the epidemic, the recovery progress of the industry continues, and the market potential needs to be released. Lei Huihua, an analyst at Anxin securities, pointed out that China's tourism market was still repeatedly suppressed by the epidemic in 2021. In 2021, China's total tourism revenue recovered to 51% in the same period in 2019, and the number of people recovered to 54%. Under the background of the normalization of the epidemic, the demand for travel showed the characteristics of shortening the decision-making cycle, increasing preference for medium and short distance peripheral travel, and rising demand for local travel. In addition, from the medium and long-term perspective, The demand for immersive leisure travel, high-end vacation travel and parent-child travel is becoming stronger and stronger, and the trend remains unchanged. At the same time, the tourism market recovered faster during the small and long holidays, and the potential for normalized travel needs to be released.
On the whole, with the smooth launch of covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs, the epidemic situation in China is expected to be effectively controlled in 2022. Even if the epidemic situation is still repeated in a small range, the epidemic prevention and control policy is also expected to be accurate, reduce the fear of repeated epidemic situation on Residents' consumption and travel, and look forward to the high-frequency peripheral short-distance travel The high-end demand of returning outbound tourism drives the rapid repair of China's tourism market. investors are advised to focus on natural scenic spots Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) with high performance flexibility, as well as Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) with excellent profit model.
Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707) significantly reduced losses throughout the year
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that one belt, one road, the other two cities, and the other two countries signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Hainan group and Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) . The plan is to try the "tourism plus shopping" business model, and try to "along the way" along the country and region, the city's duty-free shops and the free trade port tourism retail business. At the same time, the company actively participated in the construction of Hainan free trade port, explored new tourism formats such as "tourism + medical treatment", health care and online tourism integration, and deepened the market layout of Hainan. During the reporting period, the company introduced Alibaba network strategic investment to access Alibaba's huge b-end and C-end resources and data, payment and settlement system platforms; It also cooperates with Alibaba travel to jointly fund the establishment of a joint venture company, which is committed to building a mature tourism distribution platform and exploring the optimization and upgrading of tourism store brands under the "new retail".
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) profit will be supported
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) pointed out that according to the draft national economic and social development plan of Hainan Province in 2022, the amount of tax-free sales in Hainan will strive to reach 100 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 66.4% over 2021. In this process, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) has increased its influence on the local outlying island duty-free industry and supply chain links. In the long run, the scale effect will enhance the bargaining power of the industrial chain. Under the management guidance of paying equal attention to quality and quantity and tapping the potential of operational efficiency, it is expected that the company's profits will be supported.
Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) (600054) turning losses into profits
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) pointed out that with the gradual relaxation of border restrictions in many countries and the gradual restart of outbound tourism market, the restrictions on China's tourism market will also be greatly reduced, and residents' travel enthusiasm and consumer confidence are expected to be significantly boosted. From the perspective of the company itself, the comprehensive upgrading project of Huashan mystery Cave Scenic Spot in the third quarter has been completed and opened for business; At the same time, the company continues to accelerate the process of digital transformation, set up joint ventures, innovate and create a new one-stop service platform of "new tourism and new life in destination" shared by host and guest, and accelerate the development of systematic solutions for smart scenic spots.
Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144) performance is obviously flexible
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the repeated epidemics in many places limited the flow of tourists to a certain extent and had a negative impact on the recovery speed of the industry. However, with the vaccination and stable control of the epidemic situation, the recovery situation of each scenic spot of the company will be accelerated. The good business development of Huafang group, the successive implementation of new projects and the comprehensive expansion and upgrading of existing projects will become the main driving force for the rebound of the company's performance.
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (603136) future growth is the focus
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the future growth of the company is very interesting. Firstly, with the transition from tourism consumption to vacation economy, as a national leisure tourism area, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) is expected to undertake the leisure vacation market with huge space and rapid growth; Secondly, in the medium term, the company's product matrix continues to enrich and contribute to the increment. The successively launched products such as zhuxigu Hotel and new cableway perform well. The construction and orderly implementation of capacity expansion and upgrading projects such as Nanshan Zhuhai phase III and Nanshan Xiaozhai phase II are expected to further increase the company's profits; Finally, the company has low dependence on resources and outstanding operation and management ability. It is more likely to succeed in remote replication of multiple "one-stop destinations" for a long time.
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754) sufficient exhibition space
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that China's hotel chain rate has entered the middle and late stage, and we believe that the hotel group will enter the stage of product strength as the core competition in the future. In the middle of the three-year plan of the company, GIC Innovation Center + GPP direct cost reduction + full life cycle financial empowerment + the core variable for the improvement of hotel product power in the epidemic stage after the formation of hotel digitization; With the rationalization of internal governance mechanism, informatization and digital upgrading, as well as the subsequent experience of the group's high-star hotels and the empowerment of Radisson, the ability of the product moat to overturn single and weak brands will be continuously strengthened, and the potential of store opening growth + performance flexibility can be expected.
