On February 15, , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH) and China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) (601898. SH) released the main operation data in January 2022, which showed that the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by more than 20% year-on-year. While coal sales fell in January, China’s coal prices began to rise sharply. According to the price index of thermal coal in China’s iron and steel network, in January 2022, q5500 in Qinhuangdao port increased from 780 points to 1160 points, an increase of 48.72%.
Cao xute, an analyst at Shengang securities, pointed out in his research report that the subsequent rise in coal prices is expected to be limited. With the gradual resumption and increase of coal production after the festival, the fluctuation range of coal price is expected to narrow.
As of February 11, the coal price of Qinhuangdao port (q5500) was flat at 1010 yuan / ton.
thermal coal rose more than expected
In fact, although the overall coal price showed an upward trend in January, the increase also fluctuated. In the first and last ten days of the month, the growth rate was relatively fast, while in the middle of the period from January 10 to 19, the rise of q5500 coal price at Qinhuangdao port was relatively stable. The market believes that this round of coal price rise is affected by both international factors and China’s approaching Spring Festival. However, the coal demand in December 2021 was lower than the market expectation. By the end of December, the coal price was reduced to the lowest point in half a year.
Internationally, according to a letter to all coal mines signed by the director of the Indonesian Coal Bureau in early January, all coal exports are prohibited from January 1 to 31, and Indonesian coal imports have a great impact on the supply pattern of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal.
According to Sindh maritime information, from January to November 2021, China imported 293 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Among them, Indonesia imported 178 million tons of coal, accounting for 60.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, mainly due to the obstruction of Australian coal import. In terms of coal types, China mainly imports thermal coal from Indonesia. From January to November last year, China imported 176 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia, accounting for 74.43% of thermal coal imports; The imported coking coal is 20.5693 million tons, accounting for 4.36% of the imported coking coal.
Affected by this, the price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal will bottom in the short term. Indonesia’s export ban has accelerated the reversal of pessimistic market expectations, while power plants, metallurgical and chemical enterprises have opened storage before the Spring Festival, and the rising purchase demand has driven up prices.
On January 7, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 815 yuan / ton, up 27 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. By January 14, the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 900 yuan / ton, up 85 yuan / ton on a weekly basis.
In terms of demand, the low temperature weather continued to support the high daily consumption level of the power plant. The coal consumption demand was strong, which also led to the decline of coal storage in the power plant. At the same time, combined with the phased centralized replenishment on the eve of the Spring Festival, the overall demand for power coal was relatively strong.
coal price is expected to decline
Before the festival, some mines gradually stopped production and had holidays. At the same time, with the end of the supply guarantee task, the coal supply weakened. On January 28, the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1065 yuan / ton, reaching the high point in January, with a weekly increase of 108 yuan / ton.
This weak growth signal is also confirmed in the operating data released by listed companies. On February 15, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) released the main operation data of January, the coal output was 10.3152 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.59% and a month on month decrease of 8.72%; The sales volume was 18.8301 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.12% and a month on month decrease of 10.93%.
In response, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) staff said, “Although the coal price rose in January this year, its average price is still lower than that in December last year. The output and sales volume in January decreased, mainly because the base number in January of the same period last year was high. The company’s monthly output generally fluctuated between 10 and 12 million tons, which is a reasonable mining level. Secondly, the company’s coal mine will be overhauled from time to time. This January is a month The overhaul of a large mine will affect the output to a certain extent. “
According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the average price index of thermal coal q5500 in Qinhuangdao port in December 2021 was about 1009.35 points, and 981 points in January 2022, lower than the average level in December.
Meanwhile, in January of China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , the sales volume of commercial coal was 24.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. However, in December 2021, the sales volume and output of the company were 22.66 million tons and 10.24 million tons. In January 2022, the sales volume and output increased by 9.75% and 3.03% respectively.
On February 9, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting to arrange and deploy to continue to stabilize the coal market price, and interviewed and reminded some enterprises with falsely high coal prices found in the monitoring, requiring them to speed up the verification and rectification.
At present, the thermal coal price index q5500 of Qinhuangdao port has dropped, from 1160 at the end of January 2022 to 1080 on February 11.
“Judging from the situation last week, the price of thermal coal operated smoothly, and the quotation of thermal coal in QinGang was still stable at 1010 yuan / ton, but it has begun to be under pressure due to the price limit policy, and there is a downward expectation. Last week, the coal price of origin took the lead in responding to the policy to reduce.” Zhang Xucheng, an analyst at Kaiyuan securities, pointed out that in terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work in the first week of the Spring Festival, and the industrial power load still needs to be restored. However, the low temperature weather continues to support the high level of civil power load, and the daily consumption level of the power plant is generally high. Considering the high inventory of the power plant and the downward expectation of coal price, the demand for replenishment is suspended; In terms of supply, some mines at the origin end still need to resume production after the Lantern Festival. Large and medium-sized mines resume work faster than the demand end, and the supply is looser than before the festival and during the holidays. However, considering that the demand has not weakened as scheduled, the overall supply is slightly tight.
