Although the pig price continued to be depressed, thanks to the expansion of marketing volume, pig enterprises “supplemented the price by quantity”, and the sales volume of most pig enterprises increased significantly year-on-year in January. After the Spring Festival, the price of pigs continued to fall. Front line personnel expect the price of pigs to bottom out in the first half of the year, and the price is between 5 yuan / kg and 5.5 yuan / kg. In contrast to the “endless falling” of pig prices, pig stocks have taken the lead in rebounding. Insiders told the financial associated press that the speculation in the secondary market is expected to be the removal of production capacity after the second bottom, rather than the reversal of the cycle.
pig enterprises generally increased in January
As of the 15th, the sales of major listed pig enterprises in January had been disclosed successively. Under the background of downward pig prices, large pig enterprises continued the sales strategy of “compensating price by quantity”, and the sales of most pig enterprises in January increased significantly year-on-year.
According to the published January briefing, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (603363. SH) grew at an alarming rate. In January, 380800 pigs were sold, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1.4 times, which is close to the listing volume of the fifth largest pig enterprise Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) (002124. SZ). The sales volume of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (300498. SZ) ranked first. 1.561 million pigs were sold in January, with a year-on-year increase of 50% and a revenue of 2.471 billion yuan; The sales of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) (000876., SZ), Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (002157., SZ) and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) (002385., SZ) were 1292600, 958700 and 416500 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 76.61%, 21.86% and 36.16%, and the sales revenue was 1.638 billion yuan, 1.219 billion yuan and 608 million yuan respectively.
(Note: since the sales volume in January and February fluctuates greatly between months, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) will jointly disclose the sales from January to February in March)
Not all pig enterprises increased year-on-year, but also the sales volume of listed pig enterprises decreased in January, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 381300 commercial pigs were sold in January, a year-on-year decrease of 18.01%; Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) (002100. SZ) sold 126900 pigs in January, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.96%; Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) (002567. SZ) sold 130400 pigs, a year-on-year decrease of 20.44%.
For the decline in sales, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) said in the announcement: “the main reason is the significant decrease in piglet sales.” Wang Lingyun, a pig analyst at the Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, told the associated press that the pig market was depressed, the losses at the breeding end were intensified, the piglet market was relatively cautious, and scattered farmers also made more inquiries and waited. In the early stage, affected by the loss of classical swine fever in winter, some breeding scales have purchased piglets to make up the fence, but the overall transaction in the market is limited, and the price rebound of piglets is not strong. According to Mysteel Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) data monitoring, after the Spring Festival holiday, the transaction price of 7kg three yuan piglets is 281 yuan / head, which is nearly 1300 yuan / head lower than the high price of piglets in the same period in 2021.
In 2022, all major pig enterprises still raised their marketing targets one after another. According to the equity incentive plan previously announced in Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (002714. SZ), the marketing target in 2022 may not be less than 50.23 million, an increase of more than 24% compared with that in 2021, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) put forward the incentive and assessment mechanism of “please leave without increasing income”.
(data source: announcements and speculative calculations of Chinese listed companies, compiled by the financial Associated Press)
123567 {contrast with pig price}
Affected by the previous pre consumption, the pig price did not significantly boost before the Spring Festival, and the average sales price of major pig enterprises decreased by more than 10% month on month. After the Spring Festival, the pig market entered the stage of lack of supply and demand. The front-line staff told the financial associated press that the pig price rose slightly during the Spring Festival, mainly due to the reduction of the marketing volume of the group market and the “price without market” of retail investors selling pigs. After the festival, the pig price fell rapidly, and the bottom price is expected to be between 5 yuan / kg and 5.5 yuan / kg.
Wang Lingyun said: “in just four days from February 7 to 10, the pig price fell by 1.35 yuan / kg, with a drop of 9.9% in the region. After the festival, the inertia of terminal demand fell, the performance of the white bar market was poor, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was reduced by more than 50% compared with the peak before the festival. The breeding loss continued to increase, according to Mysteel Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) According to the data monitoring, the loss of self breeding pigs at the breeding end has reached 407.4 yuan, and the loss of purchased piglets has reached 391.7 yuan. Affected by the sluggish operation of the piglet market in the early stage, the recent loss of self breeding pigs is still higher than that of purchased piglets. However, driven by the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of enterprises rose slightly at a low level, the enthusiasm of breeding end for marketing improved, the market supply and demand increased, and the pig price stabilized at a temporary low level. “
(source: Steel Union data)
In contrast to the falling pig prices, pork stocks in the secondary market have rebounded significantly in the past two months.
In addition to the rapid release, the share price of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) also rebounded sharply. From the end of last year to the present, the share price of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) has increased by more than 60%, which has nearly doubled according to the recent peak of share price, and other pig stocks Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) (002548. SZ) have increased by more than 20%.
In this regard, industry insiders told the financial Associated Press: “the trend of pork stocks is often earlier than the pig price. At present, it is still the left layout. The speculation is expected to be the removal of production capacity after the second bottom, rather than the cycle reversal.”
In the long run, pig prices will not remain low. “The first half of this year will be more pessimistic than the second half of 2022 {, but it may not be better than the first half of 2026} in the near future.”
