Recently, international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have fluctuated significantly.
According to the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT), as of 16:30 on February 15, the main contract of wheat futures in the Chicago market was reported at $7.905/bushel, and the main contract of corn futures was reported at $6.5/bushel. In fact, not only wheat and corn, but also international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) futures prices such as soybeans, rice, oats and soybean oil have entered a rapid rising track.
According to relevant statistics, China’s total grain output reached 68.285 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. While the total grain output hit a new high, China’s grain imports also hit a new high. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 164.539 million tons of grain, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, equivalent to 24% of China’s total grain output. Among them, the import of wheat was 9.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; The import of corn was 28.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 152.2%; Soybean imports were 96.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, but still accounted for 58.6% of the total imports.
With the continuous rise of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the import amount of wheat, corn and other grains and grain flour imported by China last year increased significantly year-on-year. Among them, the import amount of corn increased the most year-on-year, reaching 203.1%.
Li chunding, director of the Institute of international economics, School of economics and management, China Agricultural University, said that bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) is an important part of the CPI index. In the future, if the international bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price continues to rise, it is bound to lead to the rise of China’s bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, and the rise of China’s bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price will also lead to imported inflation and the synchronous growth of CPI. On the whole, the rise of international bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices has brought certain challenges and risks to China’s future grain import and food security, or will exacerbate the risk of imported inflation. It is expected that the international bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices will continue to maintain a high level in the first half of 2022. In the second half of the year, with the bumper harvest of summer grain and the increase of global food supply, the global bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is expected to show a downward trend.
As a major food consumer, the importance of food security in China is self-evident. In the face of the rising trend of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices and the changes in China’s grain demand structure, both the central rural work conference and the central economic work conference emphasize the need to grasp and ensure the supply of primary products, truly implement the mayor responsibility system of “vegetable basket” and ensure the supply safety of pork, vegetables and other agricultural and sideline products.
At the same time, the just concluded national conference on spring agricultural production and strengthening winter wheat field management also stressed the need to increase support for agricultural production, ensure the production and supply of agricultural materials, stabilize the price of agricultural materials, strengthen agricultural technical guidance, and ensure the smooth development of spring tillage and sowing preparation. We should stabilize the sown area of grain, coordinate the production of “vegetable basket” products such as meat, eggs and vegetables, strengthen the protection of cultivated land and the construction of high-standard farmland, and deeply implement the action to revitalize the seed industry, so as to ensure that the annual grain output remains above 1.3 trillion kg and ensure food security.
Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary General of Rural Revitalization and Construction Commission, said in an interview with Securities Daily that price is an important economic lever. With the impact of international market integration and trade globalization, the correlation between international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price and Chinese market has gradually increased. The fluctuation of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price will not only cause the price linkage of China Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , but also produce a comprehensive linkage effect on China’s overall Hongyuan economic operation through a series of direct or indirect transmission mechanisms. China’s sustained rise in food prices and consumption should be avoided, which will have an adverse impact on China’s medium and long-term stability of food production and consumption.
Li chunding suggested that China’s food security work in 2022 should focus on stabilizing the sown area of grain, expanding soybean and oil production, implementing the cultivated land protection system and curbing the “non grain” of cultivated land. At the same time, we should promote the revitalization of the seed industry, improve agricultural productivity and increase output. We should also build a support policy system to ensure farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain, compact local grain production responsibilities and expand grain output.
Judging from the “optional” actions of various places, Heilongjiang Province recently proposed that the soybean planting area of the whole province will increase by more than 10 million mu and the soybean output will increase by 2.6 billion kg this year. At present, the area of soybean expansion has been decomposed and implemented to cities, counties and townships. For another example, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region proposed to expand the subsidy gap for soybean and corn producers in response to the task of planting 3.5 million mu of clear soybeans, focusing on guiding the conversion of corn into soybeans in the fourth and fifth accumulated temperature zones, and increasing the planting of 1.1 million mu of soybeans. While stabilizing the grain planting area, Chongqing has continuously optimized the grain and oil variety structure. The municipal level has organized 19 technical guidance groups to continue the action of “100 days of spring ploughing service” and promote soil testing and formula fertilization technology, so as to drive the reduction and efficiency of chemical fertilizer and improve the quality of grain and oil.
In addition, recently, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas held the 2022 centralized demonstration of culture, science, technology and health “going to the countryside” and the technical service activities of winter wheat “strong seedlings with science and technology” and soybean corn strip composite planting in Shandong Province, and launched expert technical services and special training actions. In the centralized demonstration activity of “going to the countryside for three times”, experts guided the technical measures of “promoting weakness to strength” of winter wheat on site, and carried out the demonstration and training of soybean corn strip composite planting technology and the demonstration of agricultural machinery operation.
