Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. After continuous adjustment, with the sharp rise of cro, semiconductor and other sectors, the gem ushered in a rebound, and the short-term theme stocks are expected to exert their strength. Financial stocks fell yesterday, and the short-term style of the market is expected to return to track stocks, but more are oversold and rebounded. The market structure remains the same, and the rotation of value and growth is still repeated.
Yesterday, the decline of bank stocks was inexplicable, especially under the support and boost of many parties. This decline without bad reasons can only explain one problem: the short-term good cash. Especially when the social finance has increased more than expected and the steady growth policy has taken effect, after the continuous upward since December last year, the withdrawal of bank stocks is more safe in the short term. Of course, from the strength of growth stocks this morning, we can also see that yesterday's decline or the shift of short-term funds is also the transformation of market style. However, whether it can be sustained, or whether the previous value style has changed to growth style since December last year, needs further attention.
However, judging from the current and this year's trends, steady growth is still in force, the focus of the market and funds is still in the direction of steady growth, and sustainability will still exist. Overseas, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is increasing. Under the contraction of multi-national currencies, the global impact remains the same, which has certain restrictions on overvalued growth stocks. Therefore, we are more inclined to the rise of track stocks and more short-term oversold rebound. At present, it may take time for a comprehensive rebound. Of course, for undervalued varieties, with the continuous force of steady growth, the foundation of structural upward still exists, and can still be further tracked after adjustment.
In fact, the market style shift has been relatively clear since this year. At least in the first quarter, the value style is still the mainstream. This is also well supported by the recent rise in the capital sector and capital flows. On the one hand, the performance of traditional sectors is eye-catching. According to the statistics of choice, as of the closing of February 11, among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, only 7 industries have increased this year, and the top industries are cyclical industries such as coal, banking, architectural decoration, petroleum and petrochemical, and real estate. Since 2024.2 billion yuan, Beitong has sold 344.2 billion yuan of shares to Shanghai, while the data shows that Beitong has received a net capital of 2022.2 billion yuan. From the perspective of the industry, there has also been an obvious switching of northward funds after the Spring Festival. According to the data, the large financial sector represented by banks and non banks received a northward capital increase last week, leading all 31 Shenwan industries.
Therefore, although there were some adjustments in value stocks such as banks yesterday, it is more like capital flight under the realization of short-term benefits. Under the condition that the good logic has not changed, the trend will remain. After a continuous decline, growth stocks ushered in an oversold rebound. In the short term, we also need to pay attention to the strength of the oversold rebound. Of course, we also mentioned yesterday that the upward value style is not invariable. At present, when there is still pressure on the overall economic growth, there is still a certain scarcity in the later stage of the high boom growth sector, and the probability rate in the later stage is still turning.
On the whole, although the market is still repeated, under the trend of high-low switching, we can continue to track the valuation repair market under the opening of the easing cycle. There is no need to be too pessimistic about the market. With the stabilization and recovery of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and other weights, the adjustment of the gem stage may come to an end, which is expected to resonate with the main board that took the lead in rebound and boost the market. We are still optimistic about the current possible spring market. After all, with the policy support of steady growth and the boost of loose monetary funds, coupled with the rebound of sentiment during the Spring Festival, the phased bottom of the market is expected to form. The repair market and spring market may have been opened. At present, it is still a good time for bargain hunting.
