In addition to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (002714. SZ), New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) (000876. SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (300498. SZ), Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) (002124. SZ), Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (002157. SZ), four listed pig enterprises have all released pig sales briefings in January 2022. Considering the impact of the Spring Festival, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) usually discloses the sales from January to February in March.
month on month sales of pigs increased and prices fell in January
In terms of sales revenue, the sales revenue of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) in January decreased month on month and year on year, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) decreased year on year and increased month on month. From the perspective of average sales price, the average sales price of the four listed pig enterprises decreased month on month and year on year, with a year-on-year decrease of 55% - 65%.
Tabulation of sales revenue of listed pig enterprises surging reporter Peng Yanqiu
Tabulation of the average sales price of listed pig enterprises surging reporter Peng Yanqiu
In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) in January increased month on month and year on year, while the sales volume of Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) increased month on month and decreased year on year. Among them, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) pig sales in January 2022 was the highest in 13 months since January 2021.
Tabulation of sales of listed pig enterprises surging reporter Peng Yanqiu
Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Industrial Service Research Institute, said in an interview with surging news reporters that the off-season after the festival is expected to drive the early listing of large-scale enterprises in January.
"In the downward cycle of price, cash flow pressure drives enterprises to accelerate the pace of marketing. The month on month and year-on-year data of pig marketing of Listed Companies in October 2021 reached a phased high point, the core reason is that enterprises accelerate the marketing due to cash flow pressure, resulting in " 。 January 2022 is the last peak month before the Spring Festival. For the same purpose of protecting cash flow, listed companies have increased their enthusiasm for marketing and the average number of pigs has decreased, which verifies this judgment. "
how will the future pig price go
Previously, on February 8, according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.57:1 in the week from January 24 to 28, which was between 5:1-6:1 for three consecutive weeks, triggering the secondary early warning range of excessive decline. The national development and Reform Commission said it would work with relevant departments to start the collection and storage of pork reserves as appropriate, and guide local governments to carry out the collection and storage according to regulations.
Zhou Xiaoqiu pointed out that the marginal effect of purchasing and storage on spot prices decreased. In the second quarter, the supply side capacity continued to release, while the consumer side was in the traditional off-season, with periodic excess supply, and the spot price was easy to fall but difficult to rise. Due to the rapid decline in prices, the price ratio of pig grain is close to 5:1, and there is an expectation of starting collection and storage in policy.
"Historically, purchasing and storage may drive the periodic rebound of spot prices. For example, the two purchasing and storage in 2021 triggered a sharp rebound in spot prices. However, due to the greater weight of oversupply in the first half of the year, the driving effect of purchasing and storage on prices is much lower than that in the second half of the year , and the elasticity of spot prices will be reduced accordingly." Zhou Xiaoqiu said.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also believes that the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season after the Spring Festival. At present, the overall pig supply is still in the surplus stage. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on pig prices in the future, and the second wave of de capacity has been gradually opened.
As for the future trend of pork price, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) said in the latest investor relations activity (February 10 and 11, 2022) that it is expected that the pig price will be under great pressure in the first half of 2022, with a relative low from March to may, and then a relative adjustment .
According to New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , in combination with the current situation of sows on hand and production indicators, it is planned to sell 13-18 million in 2022 and about 20 million in 2023. Previously, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) said in the performance forecast of 2021 that at the end of the reporting period, the company had 380000 breeding sows, 220000 reserve sows and 100000 GGP + GP (great grandparent breeding pigs + grandparent breeding pigs).
