The growth of passenger transport scale in 22 years may support the consumption of Spring Festival
In December 21, the total retail sales of social goods increased slightly year-on-year, and the total retail sales of social catering decreased slightly year-on-year. It can be seen that the terminal demand is still relatively weak at the end of 21. However, with the normalization of the epidemic, the 22-year return policy has become more flexible, and the scale of Spring Festival passenger flow has increased significantly. From January 17 to February 7, 539 million passengers were sent, an increase of about 42.8% over the same period in 2021, or supporting spring festival consumption.
The margin of adverse impact is weakened, and the investment opportunities brought by price increase and demand improvement are grasped. ① beer: the consumption environment of the Spring Festival has changed, but the overall sales volume has not decreased, and the price increase policy is gradually implemented, and the impact is expected to be gradually reflected at the table end; The high-end segment has a long logic and strong certainty, and the investment opportunities brought by the price increase deserve special attention. ② Dairy products: during the Spring Festival, the sales of liquid milk are good, the promotion is reasonable, the increase of raw milk price continues to narrow, and the investment of enterprise expenses is optimized. The profitability of dairy enterprises is expected to be improved and the profit elasticity is expected to be gradually released. ③ Condiment: the three factors of community group buying, weak demand and cost pressure that have suppressed the performance of the sector in 21 years are expected to improve in 2022, the price increase is also expected to be completed around 22q1, and the enterprise performance is expected to be gradually repaired. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities of the sector brought by the price increase and demand recovery. ④ Quick frozen and snack food: the increase of passenger flow during the Spring Festival has supported consumption, and the dynamic sales of household consumer goods and gift box packaging products are stable; With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption and the gradual transmission of price increases, the results of business reform such as Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) are expected to gradually show, and high-quality track leaders such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) are expected to achieve stable growth.
Investment suggestion: the valuation of the popular products sector fell back to a low level and focused on improvement opportunities. In January, affected by the repeated epidemic and weak terminal mobile sales, the food and beverage sector fell by 14.76% and the valuation fell back to a historically low level of 41.6x. However, the adverse factors affecting the sector, such as the rise in the cost of raw materials, the diversion of community group purchases and weak mobile sales in 21 years, are expected to gradually weaken in 22 years, We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the sector brought by the price increase and the recovery of consumption. At this stage, we believe that we should pay attention to the industry leaders with both valuation cost performance, high performance flexibility and medium and long-term growth stability, and focus on Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) / Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) / Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) / Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) .
Risk tip: the macro economy does not meet expectations, the demand growth does not meet expectations, and food safety problems.
