Today (February 15), the gem index rose sharply after a long absence. With the help of a number of track stocks, the gem index rose by 3% as of the closing. In terms of sectors, the cro concept rose by more than 5%, the semiconductor sector rose by nearly 3%, and the track sectors such as lithium batteries, military industry and new energy vehicles also strengthened significantly. The undervalued sectors of the main line of epidemic recovery such as scenic spots, tourism, hotels and airports, which have been continuously active recently, fell sharply, and the sector index fell first.
cro concept rebounded for days, and track stocks may enter the undervalued area
Recently, the cro concept sector has performed well and become one of the track sectors with the fastest rebound this week. The sector index rose again today, up nearly 6% as of the closing. Among the individual stocks, Chengda pharmaceutical was promoted to the second board, Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) rose by the limit, boten pharmaceutical rose by more than 17%, and Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) rose by more than 10%, with Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) , Baicheng medicine and other stocks among the top gainers.
Since December last year, the concept of cro has retreated continuously, and the sector index once fell by nearly 30%. With the large-scale decline of individual stocks, the previously concentrated bull market chip structure has been gradually dissolved, and the valuation and cost performance of some leading enterprises began to emerge. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that the inflection point of investment in the medical sector is coming, and there will be a reversal opportunity in 2022. The main judgment is based on the following aspects: the valuation of the core targets of a large number of subdivided tracks has been significantly corrected, which is now at an all-time low; The impact of the epidemic on hospital diagnosis and treatment is gradually eliminated, and the sector is expected to usher in a new era; The high incidence of overseas outbreaks may exceed expectations, and the epidemic prevention and control sector is expected to usher in a revaluation opportunity.
Similar to the cro sector, the new energy industry chain that remained active last year also retreated significantly. As of today's closing (February 15), the lithium battery sector has fallen by 16.5% since December last year, and the heavyweight Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has also fallen by nearly 22%. Some analysts believe that the current shift in China's market preference from growth to defense is the core factor of this round of decline. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the valuation of the company ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ) has fallen back to the bottom of history due to the wrong killing of stock prices due to various rumors. 2022 is a big year for the global sales of electric vehicles and energy storage, and the company has sufficient orders. It is expected that the global installed capacity share will further increase to 35% +, and the shipment volume and performance are expected to continue to double. The current valuation is obviously underestimated.
the epidemic recovery line fell today, and track stocks may rebound after consolidation
Recently, the tourism, hotel and airport sectors have strengthened significantly. As an industry suppressed due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage, with the recent gradual advancement of covid-19 specific drug process, the epidemic situation in China has improved and the impact on life has been marginal eliminated. The main line of epidemic recovery and steady growth have frequently become market hotspots. Since this year, the three high heavyweights have continuously become the main target of valuation killing, and the market style has gradually shifted to the undervalued sector. In addition, there are reversal expectations in some industries. Under the capital preference, the low-level sector has become the main style line in the near future, and the track stocks have become the main selling target.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) pointed out that from the perspective of the current time point, the previous stable growth market and undervalued industries can break through the average value and move towards the positive double standard deviation. At present, the undervalued value rebounded 17% relative to the bottom of the whole a, which is 3% higher than the average value, and there is still 12% relative income space compared with the upper edge of the positive double standard deviation (except for 18 years, the previous stable growth upward window periods have not touched the upper edge of the double standard deviation), There is still room for trading; In terms of time consumption, in the first three rounds of steady growth market, the average time-consuming window period of undervalued value / all a upward is about 3 months (18 years, 5 months). Therefore, at present, the market with stable growth and downward differentiation of science and technology is about to enter the equilibrium period. There are obvious income ceiling constraints in the undervalued stable growth industry / all a upward. From the perspective of remote return, the layout of science and technology industry should be considered at the current stage and wait for the end of the window period.
Bohai Securities also pointed out that in the medium term, will usher in the settlement stage after steady growth gradually enters the performance verification stage, and the adjusted growth sector will gradually have the participation value . In the short term, after the rebound in the first week after the festival, the panic gradually eased, but the market trading has not fully recovered. It needs to be consolidated in the future and gradually enter the recovery stage of sentiment . In terms of industry allocation, due to space problems, it is not suitable to catch up with the "steady growth" sector with large short-term cumulative growth. However, considering that the social and financial structure still needs to be optimized and the steady growth policy will still work, the steady growth sector can still play a game if there is a correction.
