In early trading today, A-Shares rebounded in shock, and technology stocks became the vanguard of the rebound. The gem index and the Kechuang 50 index both jumped high and opened high, both rising by more than 2%.
On the disk, CXO concept, diamond cultivation, cement, gold and other sectors were active, while tourism, coal, oil, hotel catering and other sectors led the decline. The net inflow of funds going north was 1.677 billion yuan.
gold sector glitters
The gold sector remained active after the Spring Festival. After opening high yesterday this week, the sector index opened high again today, approaching the highest point of the year. Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) rose strongly. After the festival, four trading limits have been harvested, with a cumulative rise of 49.24%. The stock price has reached a new high in recent one year, Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) , Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) and others have also risen by more than 10%.
As the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine triggered market concerns and investors’ demand for risk aversion increased, the international gold price rose to a three-month high on Monday and approached an all-time high. Data show that the main contract of Comex gold futures had three instantaneous transactions of nearly US $400 million from the evening of February 14 to the early morning of February 15, Beijing time.
In addition, according to the “global gold demand trend for the whole year and the fourth quarter of 2021” recently released by the world gold association, the global gold demand increased significantly. In 2021, the global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) increased to 4021 tons, an increase of 9.91% year-on-year compared with 2020. Among them, the global demand for gold in the fourth quarter was 1147 tons, up nearly 50% year-on-year, the highest level in nearly ten quarters.
China and India are the most important countries in the world’s gold consumption.
According to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the actual consumption of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) in 2021 was 1120.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.53%, even 11.78% higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic. During the Spring Festival this year, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption peaked again. The latest statistics of Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association showed that during the Spring Festival, the total consumption of gold jewelry in Shanghai alone reached 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. In January, the total delivery volume of gold from Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 186 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, far higher than the average level in 2021.
In the context of the sharp increase in demand, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) production is declining. According to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the output of raw gold in China in 2021 was 328.98 tons, 36.36 tons less than that in 2020. China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption mainly depends on imports. China imported 818 tons of gold in 2021, 36% higher than that in 2020.
According to the data of the World Gold Council, India’s annual gold import increased by more than 100% year-on-year in 2021, reaching 925 tons, the highest level since 2011. India’s gold demand was mainly due to the wedding suppressed by the epidemic, which began to be held on a large scale at the end of last year. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, the annual wedding gold consumption in India accounts for about 50% of the total demand for gold.
The economic times of India also reported that from mid November to December last year alone, 2.5 million weddings were held in India. The popularity of the wedding has warmed up India’s gold jewelry market. The World Gold Council said that in the next 10 years, India may hold 15 million weddings a year, which means that Indian Folk demand for gold will only continue to increase.
Wanlian Securities said that the gold jewelry industry continues to have a high outlook. In the long run, gold is still favored by investors as an anti inflation tool, and the improvement of multi scenario penetration of gold jewelry is expected to promote the further expansion of the industry. During the epidemic period, leading enterprises opened stores against the trend, seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and continued to be optimistic about the leading enterprises of gold and jewelry with increased share.
boost cement price rise in peak season
The cement sector was also significantly active in the early trading, Ningbo Fuda Company Limited(600724) fell by nearly 2% and pulled the limit in a straight line in less than 5 minutes, which is the second limit after the Spring Festival. After the festival, the cumulative rise was 31.73%, and the share price hit a new high in one and a half years. Sichuan Golden Summit (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(600678) , Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials And Chemicals(Group)Co.Ltd(600425) , China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) and other post holiday strong upside, the trend is much stronger than the market trend in the same period.
With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, construction projects around the country have started one after another. Since January 2022, policies have been intensively voiced, emphasizing that “infrastructure investment is moderately ahead of schedule”. In addition, the direction of financial development may not be limited to the field of infrastructure investment, such as affordable rental housing, education investment, health investment and other fields are also the focus, which can also stimulate the demand for cement.
After the Spring Festival, the price of cement increased and the price of cement increased. On February 7, the price of clinker along the river in Anhui increased by 30 yuan / ton; On February 11, eastern Guangdong raised the clinker price by 30 yuan / ton, and Yunnan notified to raise the price of various types of cement by 50 yuan / ton. Subsequently, some cement enterprises in Chongqing and Hunan also issued price adjustment letters one after another.
In fact, from the beginning of each year to the end of May, it is the peak consumption season of cement. Under the dual action of demand and price, cement stocks will perform during this period. Statistics for nearly 10 years show that from the beginning of the year to the end of the peak season (May 30), the maximum average increase of cement index is 35.3%, up to 85% in 2015 and 14.5% in 2021. Since this year, the overall increase of the cement sector has been only about 8%, far less than the average increase in the same period in the past 10 years.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the social financing and credit data in January exceeded expectations, and the broad credit expectation was implemented. The accelerated investment of social finance and other funds has raised the expected temperature of the landing of physical workload, which has a strong support for the demand for infrastructure cement. At the same time, due to the influence of policies, low-carbon requirements, energy consumption restrictions, weak supply, the total production capacity continues to be controlled, the mainstream market price is expected to remain strong, and the industrial efficiency may continue to remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
