Since this year, affected by multiple factors, the volatility of A-share market has increased, and the undervalued sector represented by banks has strengthened against the market, gradually deducting it as the main line of the market.
People said that in the short-term market outlook, the selection of institutions is still the best, and the market outlook is expected to continue to underestimate the market outlook. At the same time, the growth stocks gradually adjusted in place also began to show the layout value. There is a high probability that the future market style will see a saw, and the market may present a situation in which value and growth go hand in hand.
undervalued sector is still the best choice
On February 14, the undervalued varieties were significantly adjusted. In the Shenwan industry, non bank finance, building materials, real estate, banking and other sectors led the decline. Correspondingly, circuit stocks such as cro and lithium mine rebounded, and leading stocks such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) rose significantly.
Does this indicate that the undervalued sector market will come to an end? Many institutions believe that the undervalued sector is still the best choice at present and is expected to continue to strengthen.
First, the investment logic of “steady growth” has been continuously strengthened. Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) the strategy team said that the approval of covid-19 therapeutic drugs is equivalent to adding an insurance and guarantee on the basis of China’s epidemic prevention and control measures. This is undoubtedly conducive to China’s economic growth.
Secondly, the valuation of undervalued varieties has room for repair. Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai securities, said that based on the ratio of Shenwan high P / E ratio index to low P / E ratio index, the past five years can be divided into two stages: from 2017 to 2020, the low P / E ratio is relatively dominant; Since 2020, the high P / E ratio is relatively dominant. From the perspective of mean regression, the valuation of undervalued varieties still has room for repair.
Finally, historical experience shows that undervalued sectors such as finance and real estate are more related to the credit environment. In the “wide credit” environment, the valuation of these sectors will continue to repair. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) strategy analyst Zhang Qiyao said that in the previous “steady growth” process, social finance data are important signals affecting market expectations. In January, social finance released “Tianliang”, which will further strengthen market confidence. Similar to July 2014, after the social finance data were released in June and exceeded expectations, the financial, real estate, nonferrous metals and other sectors led the market to rise.
the adjustment of growth sector is coming to an end
In the past two months, A-Shares have continued to fluctuate and adjust. Among the main indexes, the gem index has the largest adjustment range, and its growth style has been significantly frustrated.
“In terms of the range and time of the adjustment, the current gem refers to the adjustment has been relatively sufficient.” Chen Mengjie said that the main incentive for the sharp adjustment of the gem is that investors’ concerns about the uncertainty of overseas assets continue to rise against the background of the acceleration of global capital flows. However, with the deepening reform of China’s capital market, the independence of the A-share market is increasing. The fluctuation of overseas market is only a disturbing factor, not a leading factor. The recent adjustment of gem index has fully digested the factors of overestimation, and the current valuation has fallen back to the average level of nearly five years.
Historically, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) strategy analyst Zhang Xinyuan believes that the current market style has a high probability of sawing, or there may be a situation in which value and growth go hand in hand.
“Since the fourth quarter of last year, the scissors gap between the main line of steady growth and the stock price trend of the growth sector has continued to expand. Taking history as a mirror, liquidity change is not a sufficient condition for the establishment of a new style, and a significant reversal of the performance scissors gap is a necessary condition, but it is not available at present.” Zhang Xinyuan said.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that in the long run, on the premise that the performance trend remains unchanged, the left layout opportunities of science and technology growth stocks are gradually emerging for investors.
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According to the current market trend, how should investors layout? Many institutions believe that the undervalued varieties with dominant stage performance and the significantly adjusted growth style have allocation value at present.
Zhang Xinyuan suggested paying attention to two main lines: first, non-financial central enterprises that benefit from China’s wide credit but are not subject to overseas tight currency, including industries such as power grid and traditional energy; Second, intelligent vehicle and data infrastructure.
The Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) strategy team said that there are four directions to focus on in the future. First, under the background of “a good start” of credit, “steady growth” is expected to be further strengthened, focusing on building materials, urban pipe network transformation, steel and real estate industry chain. Second, continue to be optimistic about the medium-term growth direction. The growth style has been significantly adjusted and has the value of layout. Third, pay attention to banks and securities companies in the financial sector, and pay attention to insurance benefiting from the upward expectation of long-term interest rates. Fourth, in terms of consumption, focus on travel chains such as tourism, airport, catering and leisure services in the short term, and grasp the opportunities of mandatory consumer goods such as dairy products, condiments and food processing in the medium and long term. In terms of themes, we will continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that in terms of industry configuration, attention should be paid to the expected improvement of mass consumption, TMT, old and new infrastructure, as well as medicine, new energy and semiconductor with high cost performance after adjustment. First of all, from the perspective of expected improvement, pay attention to mass consumption (tourism, hotels, aviation, catering) benefiting from increasingly scientific and accurate epidemic prevention policies, media catalyzed by meta universe, and computers with favorable implementation of the 14th five year plan for digital economy; Secondly, from the perspective of policy orientation, the undervalued building materials and new infrastructure deserve attention; Finally, from the perspective of valuation and cost performance, focus on traditional Chinese medicine, new energy materials and semiconductor equipment with high prosperity and large recent adjustment range.
