Since the New Year holiday, the Shanghai index has performed better than the gem index, and the market style “high-low switching” has continued.
Northbound funds, which have always had a keen sense of smell, also have obvious style switching: since the beginning of the year, the performance of Shanghai Stock connect channel is stronger than that of Shenzhen Stock connect channel, contributing most of the traffic. Is the northward capital right again this time?
On the other hand, from the perspective of capital flow, the financing funds have reverse operation in the “high-low switching” of market style: some stocks in the new energy sector with significant correction have been added against the trend, and financial and cyclical stocks have been net sold by financing.
buy Shanghai stock through sell Shenzhen stock through
The data show that since 2022, although the A-share market has been adjusted continuously, the northbound funds have continued the trend of net purchase as a whole, with a total net inflow of 23.73 billion yuan into A-shares. However, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Stock connect channel obtained a substantial purchase of 34.572 billion yuan from the north, while the Shenzhen Stock connect was sold a net 10.842 billion yuan.
And this difference is particularly prominent after entering the lunar year of the tiger: since February, the net sales of Shenzhen Stock connect has been 9.028 billion yuan, contributing more than 80% of the net outflow of Shenzhen Stock connect during the year.
This capital divergence of northbound capital since this year is just the opposite of that in 2021: last year, northbound capital bought a record 432.169 billion yuan of a shares, including 193.727 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock connect and nearly 240 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock connect, contributing more than 55% of the capital.
The operational differences of northbound funds also coincide with the market performance in recent days. Since the lunar new year, the weighted blue chip style represented by the Shanghai stock index has been more stable, rebounding by 2.01% since February, while the gem index representing the growth style of science and technology fell by more than 6% in the same period.
financial blue chip obtained significant position increase
From the perspective of the industry, there has also been an obvious switching of northward funds after the Spring Festival. According to the data, the large financial sector represented by banks and non banks received a northward capital increase last week, leading all 31 Shenwan industries.
Increase and decrease data of northbound capital in various industries
Specifically, the recent increase of northbound funds is in line with the main line of “stable growth”: large finance, non-ferrous metals, transportation, building materials, utilities and other sectors have been increased. Among them, the net purchases of the banking sector in the past week and nearly a month rank first in all industries. Since this year, the valuation of blue chips has been improved to a certain extent, and they have walked out of a better market amid market fluctuations.
At the same time, northbound funds continued to reduce positions in growth sectors with high growth, and technology stocks such as computers, medicine and biology, power equipment and other sectors were net sold last week.
From the perspective of specific stocks, from January 1 to February 11, 2022, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ranked first in the increase of individual stocks by northbound funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Average transaction price according to interval × According to a simple estimation of the number of shares held, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) has received a net purchase of 8.675 billion yuan in the year.
Top 20 stocks of northward capital increase
In addition to China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and other stocks received the same significant amount of capital increase from the north.
At the same time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was sold by northbound funds for more than 5 billion yuan, and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) were sold by northbound funds in different ranges.
Top 10 stocks of North fund position reduction
overseas monetary tightening is difficult to “persuade” foreign investment
Since 2022, due to the increasing expectation of global monetary policy tightening, some market views began to worry that the net inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares this year will be greatly reduced.
In this regard, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team stressed that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, but the actual impact is limited.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that overseas disturbances may affect the rhythm of foreign capital’s additional allocation of a shares, but do not change the trend of additional allocation. The increase of foreign capital’s preference for RMB asset allocation stems from the fact that China’s market environment of “low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation” in 2022 is still better than the combination of “high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation” in European and American developed markets, and better than most emerging economies with high inflation and weak growth.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that despite the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January, the redemption application behind the northbound funds was relatively stable. According to EIKON’s statistics, overseas Chinese funds maintained a large net subscription in the three weeks before the Spring Festival.
Guosheng securities also believes that although the Fed’s interest rate increase cycle may restrict the rhythm of foreign capital, the probability of “persuading back” is very low. The agency expects that in the future, with the promotion of the comprehensive registration system and the enrichment of futures derivatives tools, the further expansion of the international index is also expected to speed up, and the additional space and potential of foreign capital are still worth looking forward to. In 2022, northbound capital will contribute about 300 billion yuan in net increment.
The forecast of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities is relatively cautious. It predicts that the net purchase scale of northbound funds will be 245.5 billion yuan in 2022, which is lower than 350.7 billion yuan (predicted value) in 2021.
the balance of two financial institutions continued to decline
Since this year, the A-share market has fluctuated downward. Following the market decline, the balance of margin trading and securities lending has decreased continuously since January 17. According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of February 11, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in the market was 1714.053 billion yuan, a decrease of 120.823 billion yuan or 6.58% compared with the beginning of January.
From the past data, the market situation is the leading indicator of the scale of the two financial institutions, and holiday factors and investor sentiment can also affect the scale of the two financial institutions.
A relevant person from the securities and finance department told reporters that the recent decline in the scale of the two financial institutions is caused by the decline of the market caused by the decline of new energy, biomedicine and other sectors on the one hand, and some investors choose to reduce liabilities and reduce interest expenses before the long Spring Festival holiday on the other hand. In addition, due to the decline in the yield of new products, some offline new products withdrew, which also led to the decline in the scale of securities lending.
Wu Kaida, chief strategist of Debang securities, further said that the biggest risk of the new strategy of Absolute Return lies in the price fluctuation of the bottom position. Some institutions choose to lock the bottom position fluctuation through securities lending, stock index futures and other hedging. Therefore, when the new income declines, this part of the absolute income investors withdraw, which also has a certain impact on the positions of securities lending and stock index futures.
there is no large risk of closing positions in leveraged funds
Some market participants are concerned about the security of leveraged funds in the recent rapid decline of a shares, and whether it will bring new risks due to the forced closing of credit accounts?
In this regard, the reporter interviewed the business departments of several securities companies and learned that at present, the overall maintenance guarantee proportion of the two financial customers of securities companies is much higher than the closing line, the risk is generally controllable, and the number of customers touching the two financial closing and early warning line has not increased significantly, which is significantly different from that in 2015-2016 and 2018.
Respondents believe that the recent decline in the balance of the two financial institutions is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as the overall decline of the market, the withdrawal of some new funds and holidays. Some investors are worried about the risk of the two financial transactions.
A senior investment adviser from a business department in Shanghai said that most of the stocks falling in this round are institutional conglomerates and fund heavy positions, and the actual proportion of individual investors holding “institutional varieties” is not high. Therefore, the “lethality” of the decline to some small and medium-sized investors is far weaker than that in the same period last year.
“The number of customers who touch the closing position and early warning line of the company has not increased significantly.” A relevant person from the securities and Finance Department said that the recent decline in the market did not lead to a sharp contraction in market liquidity, and the situation that investors were unable to sell because of the continuous decline of hot stocks did not happen. Customers take the initiative to reduce their positions, which can improve the maintenance ratio of the account and remove the risk of strong leveling of the account. On the whole, there is no large risk of closing positions of leveraged funds.
Many securities companies are also strengthening measures to prevent the two financial risks, and make corresponding adjustments to the warning line, position closing line and insurance recovery line according to their own risk control requirements, internal control system and customer risk preference. For example, on January 14, China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) announced the addition of an emergency liquidation line, and the newly established minimum maintenance guarantee ratio was 120%.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) also said that in the recent market correction, the company continued to carry out daily collateral management and account management according to the established business management system. At the same time, it monitored the subject matter of issuing large advance losses, and prevented business risks through conversion rate adjustment, margin proportion adjustment, account stress test and so on.
financing customers “bottom reading” new energy sector
Since January, the five stocks with the largest net financing purchases are Jingke energy, China stock market news, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) . From the recent disk, the stock prices of relevant stocks mostly fell sharply, but some financing funds chose to “copy the bottom” against the trend.
Among them, the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has retreated by nearly 30% since its high in December last year. The data show that the financing funds have sold Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) for many consecutive days from January 26 to February 8. However, with the stock price falling all the way, financiers have shifted from selling to adding positions against the trend.
Especially on February 10, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply during the session, and the share price once fell below 500 yuan / share. However, the financing funds bought 272 million yuan against the trend on that day, and the net purchase amount ranked third in all the two financial target stocks, second only to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and China stock market news.
Net financing purchases from January 1 to February 11
From the financing net sales of individual stocks, the financing funds are reducing positions, and some financial and cyclical stocks with good recent growth.
The data show that from January 1 to February 11, among the top 20 stocks in terms of net financing sales, there are not only individual stocks in large financial sectors such as Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , but also cyclical stocks such as Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) .
Data: Net financing sales from January 1 to February 11
