There was no “red envelope” market on Valentine’s day in the year of the tiger… The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down on February 14, of which the Shanghai index fell 0.98%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.77%, the gem index fell 0.52%, and the insurance, securities, banking and real estate industries led the decline. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and it still takes time for confidence to repair.
In the shock market, a number of equity products have opened large purchase restrictions, which is a positive signal released by the fund industry to investors. On February 14, Anxin Fund announced that “in order to meet the investment needs of investors”, it decided to resume the large subscription of more than 500000 yuan of Anxin’s dynamic strategy from February 15, 2022.
In addition, on February 14, CCB fund’s equity products, CCB potential new blue chip stocks, CCB optimized allocation mix, and CCB small and medium cap pioneer stocks resumed subscription, conversion and fixed investment. Dacheng Fund also cancelled the restriction on large amount subscription and conversion transfer in of 500000 yuan in a single day account of Dacheng new cutting-edge industry hybrid from February 14.
more than one equity products have been opened for purchase and large purchase restrictions have been liberalized
The “self purchase tide” in the public fund industry continues, and some fund products have also liberalized large purchase restrictions or resumed subscription.
Since February, more and more fund products have announced the resumption of large subscription, such as Zhonggeng value pilot, Everbright baodexin new growth hybrid, Jinxin consumption upgrading stock, harvest new wealth flexible allocation, Shangyin Xinda flexible allocation hybrid, CICC quantitative Multi Strategy flexible allocation and other active equity funds. Zhonggeng value pilot is the representative work of Qiu Dongrong, a “famous value general”. The new growth hybrid fund manager of Everbright Prudential is Wei Xiaoxue, the equity trump fund manager of Everbright.
Since February 14, three equity products of CCB have resumed subscription, conversion and transfer in and fixed investment, including new blue chip stocks of CCB potential, mixed optimal allocation of CCB and mixed optimal allocation of CCB small and medium cap pioneer stocks. However, the subscription, conversion and transfer in and fixed investment of more than 50000 yuan of CCB small and medium cap pioneer stocks and mixed optimal allocation of CCB are still suspended.
In addition, the Dacheng cutting-edge industry mix managed by Hanchuang will cancel the subscription restriction of 500000 yuan from February 14, 2022, and Anxin dynamic strategy will resume large subscription of more than 500000 yuan from February 15.
Insiders said that at that time, although the market fluctuated constantly, the probability of systemic risk was very low. The resumption of subscription, conversion and transfer in and fixed investment of the fund could increase the capital inflow, which was conducive to the contrarian layout of fund managers and investors.
In addition to active equity products, some index products are also subject to large purchase restrictions. For example, since February 11, 2022, for class A shares of penghuazhong liquor index fund, the cumulative amount limit of subscription, conversion transfer in and fixed investment in a single account on a single day will be adjusted from 20000 yuan to 200000 yuan, and the cumulative amount limit of subscription, conversion transfer in and fixed investment in a single account on a single day of class C fund shares will be adjusted from 1000 yuan to 100000 yuan. To some extent, this also reflects the optimism of the company and fund managers about the investment opportunities of the track.
fund managers look at the future
Li Yongxing, deputy general manager and equity investment director of YONGYING fund, said that since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has fallen, especially in the high valuation industry. It is calculated that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of CPI and PPI turned negative in December last year, that is to say, the risk of deflation may begin to appear. According to past historical experience, once there is deflation risk, the risk of sharp decline in corporate profits will increase. More importantly, once entering the stage of deflation, the direction of asset allocation transfer will often change.
Li Yongxing believes that there are two main factors to observe for the subsequent changes in the market. The first element is the inflation data from January to February this year. if it is proved that the inflation data in December last year is only an abnormal disturbance rather than entering deflation, the market may return to the investment logic of the past few years, and the funds will continue to flow into the stock market under the background of low interest rate, so as to improve the market valuation; If the inflation data from January to February confirm the risk of deflation, the market decline is likely to come to an end, because the policy is likely to be substantially relaxed.
The second element is policy change. at present, the current policy is not enough to reverse the downward trend of the economy and stock market. The current monetary policy is not tight, but the monetary policy needs a carrier to be transmitted to the real economy. In the past, the industries used to be the carrier were mainly real estate and infrastructure, but after these two industries are limited, it is still difficult to transmit the funds to the real economy, so they are hoarded in the financial market, As a result, interest rates are falling.
\u3000\u3000 “If the risk of deflation is confirmed, there are two possible policy options. One is flood irrigation, so the stock market as a whole has the opportunity to rise significantly; the other is to maintain the current relatively loose monetary policy and relax the real estate infrastructure, so there may be structural investment opportunities in relevant industries. In the future, we will pay close attention to the changes of these two factors, And make corresponding adjustments to the investment portfolio according to its changes. ” Li Yongxing pointed out.
The investment team of Zhonggeng Fund believes that it has a more positive view on Hong Kong stocks in the future, not only limited to the value stocks in Hong Kong stocks that have bought the most in the past year, but also some growing industries and fields in Hong Kong stocks, such as the Internet, medicine and technology. Some companies are also very cheap now, Many valuations have fallen within the range standard of undervaluation strategy, which is very attractive, but the investment range is larger. Looking at the opportunities in the A-share market, a very important macro theme in 2022 is steady growth. It may be more in some areas with lower value, such as real estate and banking, including cyclical industries. The valuation of these industries and fields is very low and at an absolute low in history.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Research Management Department believes that, on the whole, the recent global stock market adjustment has a large range, which is mainly related to the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates. In addition, the market is expected that the previous trade war between China and the United States will worsen, and the valuation of the growth sector will be significantly corrected. The easing direction of China’s monetary policy has not changed in the short term. If there is a subsequent rebound, it is estimated that the growth sector with large adjustment in the near future will become the main force of the rebound. With the weakening of China’s real estate investment, the price of cyclical products will face greater callback pressure. Therefore, the sustainability of the rebound of traditional sectors is worrying.
Boshi Fund believes that in terms of a shares, the overvalued value of A-Shares is still against the wind under the background of the tightening expectation fermentation of overseas Federal Reserve and the record high US bond interest rate. The positive factor is that the short-term cost performance of growth has been fully adjusted, and the industry has patiently waited for the rotation from value to growth.
China Europe Fund believes that the 6.17 trillion social finance increment released last week reconfirmed the signal of gradual strengthening of the steady growth policy. Under the background that the normalization of overseas monetary policy is expected to rise again due to the year-on-year growth of CPI in the United States, the reconfirmation of China’s steady growth gives a stronger short-term catalyst to financial and investment related industries. The current structural imbalance of capital brings high adjustment pressure to the growth industry. Under the background of high medium and long-term growth, the current adjustment is creating opportunities for the growth stock market of the whole year. It is suggested to pay more attention to the stable growth industry in the short term. At the same time, the adjustment of the medium and long-term main line has released considerable downside risks, which makes the core stocks in the growth industry more cost-effective. The recent decline in the market has released the risk of A-share valuation differentiation. A-share has gradually emerged the opportunity of reconfiguration, especially in the related fields such as optional consumption, finance and infrastructure investment, which are more sensitive to the theme of economic stabilization.
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