Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : optimistic about CXO market! Optimistic about the possibility that Pfizer cdmo supply chain continues to exceed expectations
The bottom of CXO valuation gradually appears. At present, CXO sector is generally at the bottom of historical valuation. Under the prospect of continuous external catalysis, continuous improvement of internal operation quality and recognition of overseas key customers, we are optimistic about CXO market.
We are optimistic about the possibility that Pfizer cdmo supply chain continues to exceed expectations. The resumption of 2021q4 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) successively announced that the large-scale cdmo orders with large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises (we expect Pfizer covid-19 treatment drugs to be related) reached about US $900 million and US $214 million respectively. This Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) further increased US $681 million, which also shows that the local cdmo production capacity, quality system and delivery efficiency are highly recognized in the supply chain system of large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises. We are optimistic about the possibility of undertaking more cdmo orders for other overseas innovative drug projects after the local cdmo supply capacity is recognized by overseas major customers, and the possibility that the performance of the local cdmo supply chain continues to exceed expectations under the continuous and ineffective control of the epidemic. Considering that the current valuation of CXO enterprises has fallen back to the low level in 2019 and the uncertainty of performance, it is recommended to focus on Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
In terms of investment suggestions, key recommendations: it is expected to continue to benefit from Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) of Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drug cdmo industrial chain. Clinical cro leader Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) actively repurchase at the bottom of valuation. The valuation is cost-effective. CXO leaders Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , etc. Focus on: independent and controllable covid-19 treatment drug innovative drug enterprises Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Geli pharmaceutical, etc., and pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) in the treatment direction of traditional Chinese medicine covid-19. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : China's CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and subdivision leaders
The overall valuation of the industry is at the lowest level in history, and the industrial development trend is good. It is suggested to grasp the medium and short-term correction opportunity. In the long run, the normalization of volume procurement continues to accelerate industry differentiation, forcing enterprises to transform to innovation; The medical insurance catalogue was dynamically adjusted to continuously accelerate the volume of innovative drugs. Driven by policies, talents and capital, China's innovative drugs have entered the harvest period of achievements and opened the road of internationalization.
It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant sub sectors of innovation and industrial chain: (1) at present, the R & D homogenization of innovative drugs in China is relatively serious, and the targets and indications are relatively concentrated. The industry has gradually transformed and upgraded from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class, with strong R & D strength, rich pipelines and reasonable gradient, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , etc.
(2) China's vaccine industry continues to be in a state of high prosperity, the iterative upgrading of technology is accelerated, and heavy products are listed one after another. Domestic innovative vaccines have become the support point to promote the sustainable growth of the industry market. The industry concentration continues to increase. We suggest paying attention to the leading high-quality vaccine enterprises Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) with listing (including agency), heavy research or exclusive products, production and R & D strength.
(3) with the progress of science and technology, new medical discoveries, new technologies and new fields are emerging, and biological emerging markets such as cell and gene therapy are developing rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the development trends of various industries, high-quality enterprises and upstream industrial chains, such as life science services.
(4) the research and development of innovative drugs in the world and China is booming, and China's CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies and the continuous improvement of technical level, the industry concentration is expected to further improve. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders and subdivided leaders. []
AVIC Securities: it is suggested to mine second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation around the layout of innovative drug industry chain and high-end medical devices
With the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, we believe that the focus of market repair may continue to focus on sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, the layout in advance needs to pay particular attention to the sustainability of marginal improvement and growth. From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined.
In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial chain of innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, At the same time, tap the second tier blue chips with relatively low valuation: 1) innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, including comprehensive and specialized innovative drug enterprises and CXO industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , boten pharmaceutical, Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ; 2) It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) as the leader of high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability; 3) For medical consumption terminals benefiting from increased market concentration, it is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) ; 4) Biological products enterprises with scarcity and consumption attributes include Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) - U and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) . []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : Investment logic of four traditional Chinese medicine industries! Exposure of industrial chain targets
The investment logic of the four traditional Chinese medicine industries: 1) the State Council, the State Food and Drug Administration and the medical insurance bureau issued documents strongly supporting the traditional Chinese medicine industry, which is facing a golden period of development; 2) Traditional Chinese medicine has natural advantages in the treatment of chronic diseases and no diseases. Under the background of aging and consumption upgrading, the consumption attribute of traditional Chinese medicine promotes its rapid and large-scale consumption; 3) The increase of national standards, the rise of the price of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, and the increase of the price of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules and OTC products led to the increase of gross profit margin; 4) The sector has not risen for many years, which is characterized by low valuation, low position and good chip structure. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, and it is suggested to pay attention to Chinese traditional Chinese medicine, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) ; 2) OTC traditional Chinese medicine, it is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; 3) Innovative prescription drugs, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , etc.
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Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes in relevant industries are worth paying attention to
With the approval of Pfizer specific drugs, the normalization of the epidemic situation in China will become a trend. In the long run, China's prevention and control policies are expected to be relaxed. At present, overseas countries have maintained an open attitude towards the epidemic. Considering that the main active component of paxlovid has the same antiviral effect on mutant strains in vitro and has curative effect on Omicron and other mutant strains, paxlovid can be taken orally as a small molecule drug, and the treatment method is convenient and controllable. We believe that China's prevention and control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed under the premise of order, and opening the door to the country will be the trend in the long run.
The localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes of related industries are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, covid-19 specific drugs have huge market prospects in China. Paxlovid has been approved or authorized for emergency use in more than 10 countries around the world, and the production capacity can not meet all the markets. Moreover, covid-19 drugs are of strategic importance. It is worth looking forward to the localization of covid-19 specific drugs, and the small molecule pipeline under research is expected to accelerate its listing through emergency approval; Chinese enterprises with R & D capability and API integration will benefit. The approval of oral covid-19 specific drugs is expected to accelerate the R & D of small molecule specific drugs in China.
On the other hand, Pfizer's paxlovid needs a large number of APIs such as carbonic anhydride, which is good for Chinese api companies, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) . Some Chinese cdmo enterprises have obtained relevant production orders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . It is expected that with the further expansion of production capacity, relevant cdmo enterprises are still expected to benefit.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, it is recommended to focus on: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) - u, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) and other companies. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : Based on the change and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization in the future
Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, we believe that we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Xinda Biology (H) and Rongchang Biology (H) are recommended; In terms of CXO, Yao Mingsheng (H), Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) are recommended; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , minimally invasive medicine (H), Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) . []
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) : focus on traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with mature grass-roots sales system and control of traditional Chinese medicine resources
We believe that China's medical reform will enter the deep-water area in the next three years, and the core direction of the reform is the "county-level medical system". With the comprehensive promotion of county-level medical consortia and DRG / dips, the profit model of medical institutions and the salary accounting of medical staff will be subversive, and the equipment procurement intention of new medical infrastructure will be inclined to domestic medical equipment with high cost performance. It is suggested to pay attention to medical equipment consumables that meet the clinical needs of primary medical treatment, such as some portable medical diagnostic equipment.
In addition, the pilot of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules was liberalized and incorporated into the management of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces. At the same time, the DRG / dips policy of short-term immunization was implemented. In the national promotion of graded diagnosis and treatment, the position of traditional Chinese medicine in primary medical treatment has been clarified. We believe that the development direction of traditional Chinese medicine in the later stage of medical reform will be in primary medical treatment. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine with mature grass-roots sales system and traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with control over traditional Chinese medicine resources. Pharmaceutical portfolio in February: Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) . []
open source Securities: the traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to benefit from the policy for a long time and has long-term investment value
On January 30, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology and other nine departments jointly issued the "14th five year plan" for the development of pharmaceutical industry, which is expected to benefit the traditional Chinese medicine sector for a long time. The plan brings traditional Chinese medicine into the key field of pharmaceutical industry development, which shows China's determination to focus on the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to benefit from the policy for a long time and has long-term investment value; It is emphasized to promote the integrity and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, increase investment, support the development of innovative products, support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the approval of new traditional Chinese medicine is expected to be further accelerated; It is emphasized to focus on the development of traditional Chinese medicine compound preparations based on ancient classic prescriptions and the transformation of traditional Chinese medicine preparations in medical institutions into new traditional Chinese medicine, encourage the secondary development of listed traditional Chinese medicine and develop large varieties of traditional Chinese medicine; Encourage enterprises to "one go" and strengthen one's cooperation with the one belt, one road, and develop new markets, and get out of the new growth curve. []
