When the A-share sentiment fell to the freezing point, Ning Wang once again played the role of “savior”.
As of the closing on February 15, the gem rose by 3.09%, of which ningwang’s contribution points peaked at 16.4, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ranked fourth and fifth, 6.76 and 4.96 respectively; Yaomao rose by the daily limit, ranking second in the Shanghai index with 1.64 points, second only to Maotai 0.01.
The reason for recession is prosperity, and the reason for prosperity is recession.
The new energy vehicle industry and the pharmaceutical industry have been enthusiastically sought after by the market, so after all the chaos and noise, is it to regain value? Or pay attention to price?
We can’t predict what we will face, but at least we can look for some clues from the lessons of history to judge the current stage of the industry trend. Neither blind value investment nor reckless price speculation.
at present, the new energy vehicle industry is in a “smooth” stage. “Straighten out” of “straighten out”.
The new energy vehicle industry index bottomed at 595.80 points in 2019 and reached an all-time high of 1659.46 in early December 2021; There are four main lifts of band structure in total.
the first time is the reversal of the downward trend from February to April 2019. It is also the first correction trend for the improvement of the industry.
According to the data released by the passenger Federation: in December 2018, the batch sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 159751, with a month on month increase of 19.0% and a year-on-year increase of 79.1%, including a 116.0% increase in plug-in and hybrid ratio and a 50.0% increase in pure electric. From January to December, 1.008 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of 88.5%, higher than the growth rate in 2017.
At the policy level, on January 8, 2019, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that although the overall scale of China’s automobile market was close to 30 million in 2018, the market potential still exists, and consumers still have the demand for reasonable consumption, green consumption and upgraded consumption. Automobile products have been explored from the urban market to the rural market, and the national development and Reform Commission is considering formulating relevant policies to encourage consumers at this level to buy cars and other consumer behaviors.
the second time is the rebound from early December 2019 to the end of February 2020. This period is affected by the systemic risk of global epidemic attacks. There are many speculative properties of short covering and long covering positions, This logic is not easy to replicate in the future. The outbreak has interrupted the normal circulation of the global supply chain and economic development.
From the perspective of fundamentals, in 2018, the annual output and sales volume of automobiles turned negative year-on-year, the year-on-year decline of annual sales volume in 2019 further expanded, and the overall inventory pressure increased. As of October 2019, new energy passenger vehicles have continued the downturn for seven consecutive months. The passenger Federation announced that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in October was 65600, a year-on-year decrease of 43% and a slight increase of 1% month on month. The sales volume of class a vehicles was 28500, with a slight increase of 7% year-on-year and 2% month on month, and the performance was relatively stable; The sales volume of pure electric A0 and plug-in hybrid models decreased by 40% / 43% respectively, and the demand showed a weak trend. This rebound can be said to be an “accident”, but it does not violate the logic of time mismatch and delay between the secondary market and the industry.
the third time is the rebound from the end of May to the end of November 2020. This wave of rise has established the status of the lithium battery industry chain as the “goddess of victory” in the hearts of market participants, also during this period, lithium ore, cathode material, cathode material, charging pile, electrolyte, diaphragm, cobalt and nickel, and then lithium, solid-state battery, sodium battery Some concepts related to electric vehicles, such as power exchange business, have become hot words. The market outlook for new energy vehicles is warm and “clear”.
On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic has been slowed down, and the global industrial chain has gradually resumed work and production, continuing to drive the growth of supply and demand; On the other hand, Tesla‘s “catfish” has invigorated the automotive industry. Tesla Model3 launched online configuration preselection and reservation services for domestic long-range and high-performance models in April 2020. In 2020, the production and sales volume increased against the trend, and the output was 102700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 33.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.1%; 88000 vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 40.3% and a month on month decrease of 21.1%, setting the best record in the first quarter in history. Tesla achieved revenue of US $31.5 billion in 2020, yoy + 28%, and net profit attributable to parent company of US $721 million.
In 2020, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles were 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively. On the basis of the adverse impact of the epidemic, they still increased by 7.5% and 13% year-on-year respectively, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 5.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pcts. Among them, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1247000, with a penetration rate of 6.2%. Among them, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in mid December hit another record in a single month, with an output of 235000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 58% and a month on month increase of 19%; The sales volume reached 248000 vehicles, up 52% year-on-year and 24% month on month on the basis of last year’s high base.
In terms of power batteries, the total installed capacity of top 10 enterprises in December was about 11.87gwh, accounting for 92% of the total installed capacity. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) realizes the installed capacity of power battery of 6.79gwh, with a market share of about 52%; The installed share of lithium iron phosphate was also the first Sanyuan in 2020, accounting for 53% in December.
the fourth time is from May to December 2021. The whole industrial chain has completed the rush to the top under the leadership of Ning Wanghe Byd Company Limited(002594) . but as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell below 500 yuan and Byd Company Limited(002594) fell below 250 yuan, the carnival was suspended. “Two kings” are just the representatives of lithium batteries in the upstream and the leaders of complete vehicles in the downstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain.
There is no unexplained rise.
In 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 3.545 million, with a year-on-year increase of 159.5%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 13.5%. The sales volume of eight Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in Europe reached 1.813 million, a year-on-year increase of 69%. Us Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales reached 652000.
At the upstream material end, as of January 16, 2022, according to the SMM quotation, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 320000-330000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 300000-310000 yuan / ton, and the sales price of some bidding is 355000-365000 yuan / ton; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is about 270000-300000 yuan / ton. Since the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, this round of increase has reached 150000 / ton. Lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by more than 400% in 2021. Nevertheless, spot goods are hard to find at present. More worried is that there is no guarantee of resources and accept the reality of resource shortage.
at present, the sector has the potential to return to the hillside camp for repair.
must be a bad thing? The new energy vehicle industry just needs to be straightened out before starting.
with the popularization of electrification, intelligence and parity, the new energy vehicle industry has changed from policy driven to demand driven.
According to the data released by SNE research, a South Korean market research institution, the installed capacity of global power batteries reached 296.8 GWH in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 102.3%. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy and Panasonic ranked in the top three. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has an installed capacity of 16.5 GWH and a market share of 37.9%. It has won the champion of global battery installed capacity for the fifth consecutive year. In 2021, the global sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 6.4954 million, a year-on-year increase of 108%; Among them, the top three sales are: 936000 Tesla vehicles, Byd Company Limited(002594) 594000 vehicles, and 456000 SAIC GM Wuling vehicles.
It is estimated that the sales volume of China’s market in 2022 is expected to be 6 million (including exports), with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%; The global sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 60%. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will be 10 million + in 2025, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will exceed 40%, and the compound growth rate will reach 54% from 2020 to 2025, corresponding to the battery demand of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) in 2025 of about 534gwh.
At the same time, driven by the growth of demand, the industrial chain forms price transmission, and the production capacity and price of power batteries rise. It is estimated that in 2022, the global supply of lithium carbonate will increase by 170000-200000 tons, corresponding to the supply capacity of 280gwh + batteries, meeting the demand growth of electric vehicles by 60%. The supply of lithium carbonate will be in tight balance in 2022.
At present, leading enterprises actively invest and expand production and increase overseas exports to consolidate their position in the industry. In 2021, the global market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) installed capacity increased to 31.8%, and continued to rank first. The expansion of industrial capital and the increase of enterprise capital expenditure represent the votes of mainstream market participants on the future development trend. In terms of new technologies, 4680 batteries, blade batteries, sodium batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells and so on promote the industry upward. Among them, 4680 battery has improved energy density, production efficiency, fast charging performance and reduced battery cost through large cell + full pole ear technology. Tesla and Panasonic are expected to start mass production, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) have been laid out.
Source: company announcement, Xinlu information
Source: company announcement, Xinlu information
preparation and progress of new battery technology
the new technology of power battery is 4680 large cylindrical battery with high feasibility at present. the battery capacity is increased by 5 times compared with 2170 battery, and the mileage is increased by 16%. Due to the full pole lug structure, there is no need to add pole lug installation, but improve the production efficiency and charge discharge rate of the; And the heat dissipation area of the cylindrical battery is larger to ensure the thermal stability of the battery.
Tesla took the lead in releasing in 2020 and plans to install it in model y at the beginning of 2022. After that, cybertruck and semi are also expected to be carried. BMW followed suit and developed 4695 and other large cylindrical batteries with Chinese battery suppliers; Panasonic plans to start trial production of 4680 batteries in Japan in H1 2022, and the technical goal of 4680 battery product development has been basically achieved; LG’s goal is to complete the trial production line before Panasonic starts mass production, and mass production is expected from 2022 to 2023; Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) plan the capacity of 20gwh large cylindrical battery for passenger cars; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : accelerate the pace of research and development, and the production capacity is expected to land in Shanghai.
solid state battery: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) has outstanding technical advantages. It cooperates with Ningbo materials of Chinese Academy of Sciences to build a pilot production line for solid-state lithium battery research and development. By the end of 2021, the company’s solid-state battery has been installed on Dongfeng E70. Huineng technology and Jiawei Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(300317) industrialization are rapid.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) made progress in the research and development of polymer and sulfide solid-state batteries; Byd Company Limited(002594) has begun to try the small-scale application of solid-state batteries; Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) invest in Beijing satellite blue and solid energy to strengthen technical reserves. Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Wanxiang 123, etc. have also increased R & D investment in solid-state batteries.
compared with lithium battery, sodium battery has lower cycle life and energy density, which is inferior in the field of power battery. however, it has better safety, high and low temperature and fast charging performance. Therefore, it has broad application space in energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other markets. Relevant companies with existing layout include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , zhongkehaina, Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Zhejiang natron ( Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) holds 40%) and so on.
The energy density of second generation blade batteries after being grouped will reach 150wh / kg. It is expected that the energy density will be greater than 180wh / kg in Byd Company Limited(002594) 2025. As of the first half of 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) all pure electric batteries have been replaced with blade batteries.
it can be predicted that the of the new energy industry is that the volume and price of the industrial chain rise together and can be transmitted smoothly. At the same time, the volume and profit of enterprises rise together, and the enterprises that come to the turning point of production capacity and higher price elasticity are expected to continue to benefit.
