According to the data released by the passenger Federation on February 14, the shortage of chips in the car market has gradually eased in 2022, but the epidemic in January disrupted the production rhythm of some manufacturers and the output was lower than expected. However, the retail trend was good in January, and the car market continued to be hot before the Spring Festival.
Specifically, in January this year, China’s production of broad passenger cars was 2.091 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month on month decrease of 16.9%. In January, retail sales reached 2.112 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month on month decrease of 1.4%.
“In January, the output of passenger car market did not meet the expectation. Under the background of the epidemic, some regions were greatly affected, including Tianjin, Beijing, Hangzhou and other regions, which affected the production rhythm of some manufacturers, especially FAW Toyota in Tianjin. Tianjin is an important production base in China, FAW Volkswagen and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) It has also been affected to some extent. ” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger Federation, said that the impact of the chip is small at present, and the automobile supply continues to improve.
Cui Dongshu believes that retail and wholesale in January basically meet the forecast. He said that the Spring Festival starts from January 31, and the production before the festival and the purchase of cars by consumers will stop a few days in advance. After the 26th, the whole production and sales are in a state of semi pause, so January is not a complete month, five working days less than December. “In this case, retail sales fell by 4% year-on-year in January, which we think is a good performance. Because of the Spring Festival (reduced working days) The loss is about 15%. If this part of the loss is added, the retail performance in January is super strong. This reflects the characteristics of continuous popularity before the festival. Before the Spring Festival this year, the tide of returning home is relatively hot, and the local Chinese New Year is relaxed, which also drives the sales to a certain extent, showing a strong starting stage this year. “
Cui Dongshu said that with the gradual strengthening of production and wholesale in the past few months and the overall supply of the car market picking up, manufacturers have actively welcomed the “good start”. With the arrival of the peak sales season before the festival, dealers significantly increased preferential efforts in January to strengthen terminal retail. In addition, some traditional auto companies lowered their expectations for 2021 due to the impact of chips, and the resources of undelivered orders were transferred to the first quarter of 2022, so the efforts to ensure a good start and ensure delivery will be effective in the first quarter.
In terms of brands, the retail sales of luxury cars reached 290000 in January, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month on month increase of 18%, indicating a strong growth trend of luxury cars in the new year; The retail sales of independent brands reached 940000, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month on month increase of 1%; The retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands reached 860000, a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a month on month decrease of 7%, which is mainly due to the impact of the local epidemic on the production rhythm of Tianjin and other mega cities and the inhibition of the increment of production and sales.
In January this year, new energy vehicles continued to strengthen. In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 347000, with a year-on-year increase of 132.0% and a month on month decrease of 27.0%. The month on month decrease is basically consistent with the 25% characteristics in January 2021. “Due to the continued decline of subsidies in January this year, there was a phenomenon of centralized vehicle delivery in the new energy market in December. However, compared with 2018 and 2019, the growth heat of the new energy vehicle market did not decrease significantly. In 2018 and 2019, there was a halving in January compared with December.” Cui Dongshu said that affected by the subsidy policy, the sales of new energy vehicles were weak in early January, but then there was an obvious recovery trend.
Structurally, the sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly in January, the trend of middle and low-end electric vehicles was also strong, and the dumbbell structure of the pure electric market was improved. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of A00 level reached 105000, accounting for 32% of the pure electric market share; A0 level wholesale sales reached 51000, accounting for 15% of the pure electric market; Class a electric vehicles account for 22% of pure electric vehicles; Class B electric vehicles reached 101000, down 14% month on month, accounting for 30% of the share of pure electric vehicles.
With the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the sharp rise in the price of basic resources such as lithium, new energy vehicle enterprises will face certain cost pressure. The report issued by the China Federation of passenger cars pointed out that auto enterprises should be able to defuse the pressure, the market price of new energy vehicles is not expected to rise sharply, and the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2022. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.5 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of 25%.
“In the future, the class a market of plug-in hybrid has great development space. At present Byd Company Limited(002594) A strong growth has been achieved. It is expected that the class a plug-in hybrid kinetic energy will bring more than 500000 incremental space. At the same time, class a electric vehicles are also gradually breaking through, which will also bring greater increment. For class B electric vehicles, due to the significant expansion of production capacity represented by Tesla, leading car enterprises will bring significant growth in the medium and high-end market. The A00 market represented by Wuling Hongguang mini-ev will still maintain a good growth trend, but at present, the cost pressure is relatively large. ” Cui Dongshu told reporters.
