Following the announcement of the clinker price increase of 30 yuan / ton in Anhui along the river and other places on February 7, a number of cement enterprises in Yunnan notified that the price of various types of cement would be increased by 50 yuan / ton from February 11.
In the price adjustment notice, many enterprises in Yunnan said that the reasons for the rise include the continuous rise of upstream raw and fuel materials, the dual control of national energy consumption and staggered peak production. In addition, according to the monitoring of China cement network, driven by the rebound in clinker prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Yangtze River Delta, major manufacturers may have strong willingness to increase prices. Some enterprises in Fujian have raised cement prices by 10-20 yuan / ton, and major enterprises may begin to try to promote the increase of cement prices.
However, nationwide, the national cement price index (cempi) closed at 169.44 points last week, down 0.43% month on month, and the year-on-year increase narrowed to 13.21%. Affected by low-temperature weather and staggered peak production, the national cement market is still weak.
coal price may have an impact
According to the statistics of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , in the past 13 years, the cement price began to rise basically in March, 46 days after the festival at the latest and 15 days after the festival at the earliest.
For this time, many cement enterprises in Yunnan took the lead in adjusting prices before the 15th day of the first month, some industry analysts told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the high shock of coal prices may be transmitted to the cement market in some regions.
The above-mentioned person said that in the second half of last year, the cement demand in Yunnan market decreased significantly, coupled with the rise of fuel and other costs, the cement price also fell sharply. Last year, the product output and main business income of Yunnan cement industry decreased by 15%, and the profit decreased by more than 50%, and some enterprises approached the edge of loss.
Since the beginning of January this year, there has been a wave of rising coal prices. According to the data, the closing price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) rose from 788 yuan / ton to 1007 yuan / ton on January 25 after the recent lowest price appeared on January 4, and then continued to reach 1105 yuan / ton on February 9.
In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, coal prices rose in late January compared with mid January. Among them, the price of ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) increased by 14.5%, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5000 kcal) increased by 13.3%, and the price of coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 1.6%.
However, it is worth noting that on February 9, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly made arrangements to continuously stabilize the coal market price, and interviewed and reminded some enterprises with falsely high coal prices found in the monitoring.
Nationwide, there is no impulse to raise prices in other regions. Especially in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in North China, most enterprises are still in shutdown, and the price will not change significantly in the short term.
"Cement demand generally recovers after the Lantern Festival, and there is limited space for cement price adjustment in the near future." Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) analyst Bao Rongfu believes that the current rainy weather will cause a certain disturbance to the market. In addition, the inventory of national cement enterprises was 62% years ago, and there is little inventory pressure, so it is unlikely that the cement price will rise. The acceleration of special bonds, financial advance and major projects may provide support for demand. It is expected that the cement price may start to rise in early March.
From the cement sector index, data show that from the beginning of the past decade to the end of the cement peak season on May 30, the average value of the largest increase in the cement index was 35.3%. Bao Rongfu said that the importance of steady growth has increased this year and the macro environment is more favorable. However, since the beginning of the year, the maximum increase of cement index is only 8.8%, so there is still room for follow-up rise. Before the end of the peak season in the first half of 2022, the pullback risk of cement stocks is small.
industry demand still faces downward pressure
Looking back on 2021, affected by multiple factors such as rising coal prices, dual control of energy consumption, dual carbon requirements and declining real estate, the cement industry is facing unprecedented challenges. According to the latest data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, last year, the operating revenue of the cement industry was 1075.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the total profit was 169.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.
How will the cement industry go this year? Kong Xiangzhong, executive chairman of China Cement Industry Association, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that the most important thing this year is to stabilize the market and accelerate market integration on the basis of stable benefits and stable growth.
The new measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in cement glass industry issued in July last year imposed stricter restrictions on the increase of clinker capacity. According to the data provided by the cement big data Research Institute of China cement network, a total of 21 clinker production lines were put into operation last year, with a total capacity of 31.992 million tons, a decrease of 18.9% over the same period. This also means that leading enterprises can only expand production capacity and extend the industrial chain through integration and merger.
On February 9, cement leader Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) (000877. SZ) disclosed the fixed growth plan, issuing 315 million A-share shares to 16 investors, raising a total of 4.247 billion yuan. Among the companies that have obtained the quota, there are many listed cement companies such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) (600585. SH), Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) (000401. SZ), Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) (000672. SZ). In Kong Xiangzhong's view, under the background of the current supply side reform, the strong combination of industry leaders can well enhance industry confidence and optimize the competition pattern.
At present, some voices in the market believe that the accelerated investment of social finance and other funds in January can effectively support the demand for infrastructure cement. However, in the long run, the real estate industry is still likely to face downward pressure this year, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) it is expected that the decline in cement demand this year may be within 5%. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) also believes that due to the influence of policies and low-carbon requirements, the supply of the industry is weak, and the development of total capacity will continue to be controlled.
According to the data, in the past decade, the overall concentration of the cement industry has continuously improved, and CR10 reached 58.7% last year. Since the second half of last year, the cement industry is experiencing a new round of integration and merger. Kong Xiangzhong believes that the deep competition and cooperation in the cement industry has become a trend, which is not only to release confidence in the market, but also of great significance to improve the profits of the industry.
At present, many institutions still have confidence in the profit margin of the cement industry this year. Shengang Securities said that in the current macro environment, the allocation value of the cement sector is prominent. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the mainstream market price is expected to remain strong and the industry efficiency may continue to remain stable.
