Current investment tips:
This week, the home appliance sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. This week, the Shenwan household appliances sector index rose 0.9%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.8% in the same period. In terms of key companies, Aucma Co.Ltd(600336) (14.1%), Vatti Corporation Limited(002035) (7.4%), Whirlpool (China) Co.Ltd(600983) (6.1%) led the rise, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (- 4.3%), Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) (- 4.1%), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (- 4.0%) led the decline.
Data observation: in January, the sales of white wires fell year-on-year, and the decline of kitchen small wires expanded. A. white electricity data: affected by the early node of the Spring Festival, the online sales of air conditioners and refrigerators fell year-on-year. Air conditioners: according to the monthly data of Taobao, the online sales of air conditioners in January 2022 were 240400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 66.50%; The sales volume reached 822 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 73.61% year-on-year, mainly affected by the early time node of this year’s Spring Festival; In terms of price, the average price of the overall online market decreased by 21.24% year-on-year to 3420 yuan / set.
Refrigerators: in January 2022, the online sales volume of refrigerators reached 577000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.53%; The sales volume reached 1.755 billion yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 44.57%. In terms of price, the average online price decreased by 11.27% year-on-year to 3041 yuan / set.
B. kitchen electricity data: the sales volume of kitchen small wires has decreased significantly, and the average price of integrated stoves has increased significantly. Kitchen small appliances: in January 2022, the sales volume of kitchen small wires has decreased by 30.69% year-on-year, which is larger than that of last month.
Dishwashers: according to the monthly data of Taobao, the online sales volume of dishwashers was 26000 in January 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 61.4%; The sales volume reached 89 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.79%; In terms of price, the average price of the overall online market decreased by 8.39% year-on-year to 3411 yuan.
Integrated stoves: in January 2022, 8900 sets of integrated stoves were sold online, a year-on-year decrease of 58.1%; The sales volume reached 66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.17%; In terms of price, the average price in the online market was 7474 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%.
C. data of personal health care category: the growth rate of massage chair sales has become positive, and the average price of health pot continues to decline. Massage chair / equipment: in January 2022, the online sales volume of massage chair was 68400 units, up 57.3% year-on-year; In terms of price, the average price of the overall online market decreased by 31.46% year-on-year to 3444 yuan.
Health pot: in January 2022, the online sales volume of health pot was 789800, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%; In terms of price, the average price of the overall online market was 115 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.19%.
Key investment points: since May 2021, the price increase of raw materials has gradually slowed down. Taking copper as an example, the price increases of 2021q1 / Q2 are 12.2% / 4.3% respectively. The price of 21h2 is stable and the marginal improvement is gradually obvious; Aluminum and stainless steel prices have fallen significantly since Q4, with a cumulative decline of 10.0% / 14.8%. At the same time, due to the lack of shipping capacity caused by repeated epidemics, the shipping freight rate has increased significantly. At present, the overall shipping freight rate level is at a historical high. We expect that the subsequent stabilization and decline of raw material prices, the recovery of international capacity and the decline of freight rates will drive the improvement of costs with strong certainty. We sort out the following four main investment lines: 1) weak real estate related uncertainty is strong, and policy fluctuations bring game elasticity. Recommendations: Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (dealer system reform), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (Mofei brand + export of small kitchen appliances). 2) After the price of raw materials stabilizes and falls, the profitability of the sector is expected to continue to repair. Recommendations: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (Casati high-end brand + self profit improvement), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (tob business value revaluation), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (central air conditioning faucet + thermal management business layout of combined meter, three electric acceleration new energy vehicles + undervalued value). 3) Product innovation has accelerated to create new demand, and new consumption remains high. Recommendations: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (Tianke brand explosion + export ODM), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (quasi first-line leader of integrated stove), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (leader of integrated stove industry + rapid development of e-commerce business), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (intelligent micro investment + overseas market development), Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (Portable Massage small electric tap + accelerated expansion of offline stores).
4) independent brands are rising at sea, and the trend of global expansion is becoming more and more obvious. Recommendation: JS global life (kitchen small electricity + cleaning appliances double high prosperity track + global output of American Culture), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (export of independent brands).
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Insufficient international shipping capacity and freight fluctuation risk.
