Summary of highlights:
(1) according to the people’s Bank of China, the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of January was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; In January, the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, a record high, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year.
(2) the Central Meteorological Observatory continues to issue a blue blizzard warning. It is expected that there will be heavy snow in some areas from 08:00 on February 13 to 08:00 on February 14, such as the south of central Inner Mongolia, the north of Shanxi, the north of central Hebei and the south of Tianjin. The depth of newly added snow in some of the above areas is 1 ~ 4cm, and locally it can reach more than 6cm.
On February 12, the newly added snow depth in some of the above areas was 3 ~ 7 cm, and the local area could reach more than 10 cm.
(3) zubairi, head of the working group of the Indonesian Medical Association, assessed that the surge in cases caused by Omikron has begun to threaten many health workers. In addition, the hospitalization needs of covid-19 patients continue to increase.
(4) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) indicates that the high nickel matte supply agreement signed between the company and Aoyama has been delivered and implemented. The construction of pyrometallurgical high matte nickel project of Huake nickel industry progressed steadily as planned.
(5) Inner Mongolia JITIE Ferroalloy Co., Ltd. issued a notice of ferrochrome reduction due to equipment problems and cost pressure. The ferrochrome 304 electric furnace (33000kva) of the company has been shut down for maintenance, and the other three ferrochrome electric furnaces have avoided peak production, reducing the output by about 7000 tons in the whole month. The company decided to cooperate with customers to reduce the supply this month and supply according to the lower limit; Non long-term cooperative customers stop supply and do not receive orders for the time being.
(6) after the festival, the demand for sea transportation rebounded, the sea freight of chromium ore bulk cargo increased by US $2-3, and the container sea freight was temporarily stable. The sea freight of bulk cargo from the main origin to the main port on February 11: US $46-50 / ton in South Africa, US $52-55 / ton in Turkey and US $70-75 / ton in Zimbabwe.
(7) Goldman Sachs raised the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in 2022 to seven consecutive interest rate increases of 25 basis points each time. Goldman Sachs had previously expected to raise interest rates five times in 2022.
(8) in January, the overall output of stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 315100 tons compared with that in December last year, a decrease of 12.41%. Among them, the output of 300 series is expected to be flat.
Stainless steel viewpoint:
Macro aspect: the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike after March is very strong, and commodities may be repaired in the process of liquidity tightening from expectation to reality.
Supply: in the first quarter, the overhaul steel plant resumed production in late February, and the output is expected to increase compared with January. Superimposed with the new production capacity, the subsequent output is expected to increase.
Demand: on February 10, the industry resumed work one after another. The willingness to take goods in the middle and lower reaches of the price rise market is low. Traders also purchase on demand and are more cautious in taking goods on their own initiative. Foreign demand is good, inflation pushes up the price of basic metals, and reducing tariff barriers may be beneficial to China’s stainless steel export.
The expectation of the peak demand season after the festival still exists, and it will take time for the output to increase. The positive driving of high nickel prices on stainless steel continues. The easing of ferronickel supply and the differentiation of electrolytic nickel are the turning points of stainless steel’s own logic. At present, the speculation mood on the capital side has cooled down, and the disk volatility has decreased. It is expected that the trend will fluctuate in the week.
Operation suggestions:
Ss2203 contract: focus on the support near 17500 and the pressure near 18600, focusing on intra day interval operation.
Ss2204 contract: pay attention to the support near 17400, the pressure near 18500, and the capital flow (operate carefully, for reference only)
Risk points: tariff, export, nickel price fluctuation and continuous accumulation
