The correction of the lithium battery sector does not change the long-term trend of the industry, and the high growth undervalued value ushers in a good opportunity for layout. After the Spring Festival, the lithium battery sector, as a high growth track, has adjusted with the market style, mainly due to the capital behavior such as trading and style after the year, as well as the emotional impact such as the carbon Dafeng plan. It is not a fundamental change. In the medium and long term, the lithium battery industry still maintains a high prosperity trend, It is still the best investment track. After correction, the high growth and undervalued value of the sector ushered in a good opportunity for layout. In terms of the industrial chain, the output of battery plants and midstream material plants fell month on month in the off-season in February, but it can be seen that they were less affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In particular, the output of manufacturers at the head of each link was flat or decreased slightly month on month, indicating that the lithium battery industry still maintained a high outlook. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to rise, and the orders provided by vehicle enterprises provide a deterministic guarantee for the new production capacity of battery factories, while the energy storage field is developing rapidly, and local projects are gradually implemented; Before and after the Spring Festival, 6 power battery projects were signed and invested, with a capacity planning of more than 215gwh and a total investment of more than 108 billion yuan. 9 power and energy storage battery projects were started, with a capacity planning of more than 176gwh and a total investment of more than 79.8 billion yuan; It is suggested to lay out the head battery plant with capacity release and cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery; Midstream material links with clear pattern, obvious advantages and still tight supply and demand, such as negative electrode and graphitization, diaphragm, copper foil, etc.
The output of overseas lithium mines in 21q4 was stable and the price increased significantly. The supply in 22 years was expected to be low, which supported the continuous high price of lithium. Based on the performance announcement of overseas lithium mining enterprises in 21q4, the output of MT Marion, Pilbara, greenbushe and MT cattlin was 9.8/8.3/26.8/52000 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 3% / – 2.7% / + 3.5% / – 23%, and the output remained basically stable; However, the 22-year output guidelines did not increase significantly and decreased, with 46.1/42.5/117.5/205000 tons respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 9% / + 31% (a decrease of 60000 tons) / + 10% / – 2.2%, and the supply and release rate of lithium ore may be lower than expected; The average selling price of lithium concentrate in the four mines of 21q4 has increased significantly, which is 1153 / 1775 / 592 / 1595 US dollars / ton respectively, and each company still gives the price expectation of continuing to rise sharply. Pilbara predicts that the price of 22q1 lithium concentrate is 2600-3000 US dollars / ton, with a central chain ratio of + 58%; Greenbushes expects the price of 22h1 to rise to 1770 US dollars / ton, a month on month increase of + 199%; MT cattlin signed a contract for 45000 tons of lithium concentrate in the first quarter, with a guide price of US $2500 / ton, a month on month increase of + 57%. There was no significant release of lithium supply in the medium and long term, and the contradiction between supply and demand supported the high price of lithium.
Three main lines of investment suggestions: first, release of production capacity, relief of cost pressure and recovery of gross profit. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Three midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive technological breakthroughs; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
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