Key investment points:
Last week's market
Last Friday, the CSI 300 rose 0.82%, and the SW auto sector fell 1.10%, underperforming the market by 1.92 percentage points. Among them, the passenger car sector rose 0.73%; The commercial bus sector rose 1.89%; The commercial truck sector rose 0.86%; The auto parts sector fell 2.60%; The auto service sector rose 1.48%.
In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) , Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.Ltd(600523) , Zhejiang Zomax Transmission Co.Ltd(603767) , Jiangsu Nanfang Bearing Co.Ltd(002553) , Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) ; The largest declines were Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) .
Industry news
1) by 2025, the accumulated capacity of new energy vehicles in Beijing will reach 2 million; 2) The development plan of new energy vehicle industry in Heilongjiang Province is open for comments. The total output of new energy vehicles will reach 100000 in 2025; 3) The detailed rules for the implementation of financial subsidies for the three-year action for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in Guangxi were issued; 4) Ministry of industry and information technology: promote the echelon application of waste power batteries in the fields of power backup, charging and replacement; 5) The 2021 global power battery installed capacity ranking was released, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) won the title again, with the global share rising to 32.6%.
Company news
1) the sales volume of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) January was 237200, with a month-on-month increase of 9.16% / 1.52%; 2) Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in January, the sales volume was 455600, with a year-on-year increase of 13.02% and a month on month decrease of 31.08%; 3) The sales volume of Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) January was 1828, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.20%; 4) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) it is proposed to invest in the intelligent manufacturing project of three electricity system parts and automobile structural parts of new energy vehicles in Hanshan, Anhui Province; 5) Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) it is proposed to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary of skateboard chassis.
Industry strategy and individual stock recommendation this week
According to the preliminary statistics of the association, the year-on-year change of wholesale and retail sales in January was + 2% / - 4%, with a month on month decrease of 12% / 1%. The month on month trend was better than that of the same period last year, and the month on month trend of retail was even better than that of the same period in 2019. On the whole, the retail end performed well in January before the festival. Although the wholesale end declined month on month due to the impulse of the host factory at the end of last year, it is better than the same period last year. After the tight chip supply situation is gradually alleviated, the performance of the wholesale end is expected to continue to rise. We insist that the recovery trend of the industry this year is expected to continue with the support of replenishment of inventory and demand, At present, China's demand for steady growth is becoming more and more obvious. Under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving point, and the necessity of stabilizing automobile consumption is increasing. In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales performance of major vehicle enterprises and new forces of vehicle manufacturing in January is still strong. In the future, with the help of the successive launch of new models and the continuous improvement of chip supply, we are not pessimistic about the sales forecast this year, and class a vehicles and hybrid vehicles are expected to contribute to the main increment; Meanwhile, if the tax credit policy of up to US $12500 for electric vehicles and bicycles in the United States is subsequently passed in the Senate, it will significantly boost the sales expectation of electric vehicles in the United States. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the latest progress of the event and the sales trend of electric vehicles in the United States. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348); 2) Enterprises entering the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG energy solution, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). In addition, we are optimistic about independent car companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066).
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China's smart electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China (a number of smart new models are expected to appear at this year's Beijing auto show), the industrial development will accelerate, It is suggested to focus on two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's automobile industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent lights / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (603197), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected; The electric transformation of Chinese and international car enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles was lower than expected.
