By combing the financial reports of 2021q4 global semiconductor companies that have released financial reports, judging from factors such as orders, revenue, inventory and price, the sustainability of this round of global semiconductor boom is expected to further exceed expectations. The limitation of equipment link lies in the shortage of supply chain, the shortage of silicon wafer lies in the supply and demand pattern, and the cumulative orders are abundant. Midstream manufacturing generally guides the further price increase in 2022q1, and the growth rate of capital expenditure of major global OEM plants in 2022 is as high as 42%, so WFE is expected to exceed expectations. Downstream, such as automobile and industrial chips, will continue to be tense. The world’s top five automobile chip manufacturers all said that the pattern of short supply in 2022 will continue.
The global leading orders for core equipment are strong as a whole, and the short-term revenue is limited by the supply chain. It is expected that WFE will grow by about 10 ~ 20% in 2022. Among them, (1) ASML added 7.1 billion euros of orders in 2021q4, with a BB value of 2.0. The cumulative orders are abundant. ASML guidelines that the revenue in 2022q1 is only 3.3 ~ 3.5 billion euros, and it is estimated that 2 billion euros cannot be recognized in 2022q1; It is expected to increase by 20% in 2022. (2) Lam research predicts that 2022q1 will have a significant year-on-year growth and a month on month decline, mainly due to parts and transportation factors; It is estimated that the global WFE will grow to USD 100 billion in 2022, with an increase rate of 18%. (3) Tel expects the revenue of 2022q1 to increase by 16% year-on-year and 1% month on month. (4) Klac expects a revenue of $2.2 billion in 2022q1, down 9% month on month, mainly due to supply chain constraints, and the backlog of orders remains strong. (5) There is differentiation among test equipment leaders. Teradyne’s revenue is expected to decline by 15 ~ 20% year-on-year in 2022h1 due to the technology cycle of key customers; ADVANTEST added 136.3 billion yen of orders in the quarter, with a BB value of 1.2. It is expected that the revenue in 2022q1 will increase by 21% year-on-year.
The gross profit margin guidelines of global wafer factories in 2022q1 generally increased month on month (both product portfolio and average price rise contribute), and the industry still has a price rise trend. TSMC predicts that in 2022, the growth rate of global semiconductors (excluding storage) will be 9%, the OEM market will grow by 20%, and TSMC will grow by 24 ~ 26%. Lattice core predicts that in 2022, the company’s wafer shipments will increase by 7 ~ 9% year-on-year, and ASP will increase by 10% year-on-year. Liandian predicted that the wafer shipment of 2022q1 company was flat, and ASP increased by 5% month on month. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong semiconductor and world advanced predict that their gross profit margin in 2022q1 will increase by 2%, 1.8% and 0.4% month on month respectively. The peak of this round of production expansion is expected to exceed expectations. According to statistics, the growth rate of capex, the world’s main OEM, will reach 42% in 2022!
We sort out the top five automobile chip factories in the world. In 2022, the supply of automobile and industrial chips will continue to fall short of demand, and a series of problems such as supply chain, inventory and delivery date continue to exist. According to the guidance of the five manufacturers, only one of the five manufacturers has a month on month decline in 2022q1, indicating that the industry is still very strong. (1) Infineon judges that the supply of automotive chips will continue to exceed the demand in 2022, but it will gradually improve within a year. Infineon has a backlog of orders of more than 31 billion euros (the company expects revenue of 13 billion euros in fiscal year 2022), and 80% of the demand is concentrated in 12 months, far exceeding the company’s delivery capacity. (2) Ansenmey said at the 2021q4 law conference that its capacity has been fully booked in 2022. At present, it is a pure supplier market, with a delivery time of up to 45 weeks and a large backlog of orders. (3) STMicroelectronics also said that the standard production capacity (MOSFET, IGBT and MCU) of cars in 2022 has been fully booked, and there is no inventory accumulation in the channel. At the same time, the upstream substrate and lead frame are lack of influence. The tension is expected to gradually improve by the end of 2022.
(4) NXP’s downstream automobile, industry and other fields are still in short supply in the next 4 ~ 5 quarters. The channel inventory fell to 1.5 months, continuously lower than the expected 2.4 ~ 2.5 months, and the imbalance can not be solved in 2022.
(5) the inventory of Renesas and channels are lower than the target level, and the turnover days are still declining. By 2021q4, the company’s total outstanding orders had exceeded 1.2 trillion yen (the annual revenue in 2021 was 994.4 billion yen), and it was difficult to deliver them all in 2022, mainly due to supply chain constraints and the uncertainty of the epidemic situation. In addition, Ti also said that there is strong demand for automobiles and industries, and capital expenditure will rise to a new platform from 2022 to 2025, with an annual amount of $3.5 billion.
Attach great importance to the unprecedented reconstruction and change of China’s semiconductor industry pattern, as well as the leader of consumer electronics subdivision track: 1) semiconductor core design: industrial opportunities such as optical chip, storage, simulation, RF, power, FPGA, processor and IP; 2) Semiconductor OEM, packaging and testing and supporting service industry chain; 3) VR, miniled, panel, optics, battery and other sub tracks; 4) Apple industrial chain core leading company.
See investment suggestions on the last page for relevant core targets
Risk tip: downstream demand is less than expected.
