The three major A-share indexes collectively closed lower today, of which the Shanghai index fell 0.98% to close at 3428.88 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to close at 13123.21 points; The gem index fell 0.52% to close at 2732.01. The market turnover reached 862.4 billion yuan, the industry sectors rose and fell, the insurance, securities, banking and real estate industries led the decline, and covid-19 drug concept stocks rose sharply against the market.
Today’s news:
1. Pfizer covid-19 oral drug attachment conditions were approved, and the concept stock was focused by institutions
2. Will Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) turn to the stock price after the alarm? CITIC maintained a target price of 754 yuan and said its market value would be 1.75 trillion yuan next year
3. Heavy signal! Short the NASDAQ and sell off large technology stocks. Soros’s latest action has been exposed!
4. Another meat stick? China’s leading industry this week hit new! Nearly 50 billion giants become big winners?
5. Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) pay out 5.5 billion in cash and 70% of the profits of the current period! The accumulated dividend has exceeded 80 billion
6. The labor tide is coming! Policy force urban pipeline reconstruction and construction trillion market will be opened
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that blue chip is the main style throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the blue chip market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched. At present, the market pays attention to four key issues. Focus 1: what is the sustainability of the main line of steady growth? The steady growth policy is infrastructure first, followed by real estate. After a number of policies work together, China’s GDP will return to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly level market of the main line of steady growth. Focus 2: when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? The current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; The growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair after the three conditions are complete. Focus 3: how does global monetary tightening affect a shares? Under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited. Focus 4: how to grasp market opportunities at the current time point? It is suggested to stick to the blue chip style throughout the year. At present, we should stick to the main line of value blue chip catalyzed by stable growth policy and continue to focus on the active layout of “two low positions”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that under the current stable growth, the infrastructure strength or local debt problem and the recovery of real estate, as the core leading of the wide credit slope in the future, will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the social finance data in January, the total amount exceeds the expectation, which has shown a positive signal, and the wide credit is on the way. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated, and the infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually repaired. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year. At present, there are two new ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, under the warming expectation of steady growth, the allocation value of consumption, infrastructure and other undervalued directions has increased.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite may take time under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector. When China’s growth expectation gradually stabilizes and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress. On the whole, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, under the background of relatively low market and low expectations, there have been more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious. The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that in the past 21 years, the rise and fall of the industries with major rights in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have been out of sync, with each passing, so the index fluctuated. Under the background of the era of equity investment, allocated funds will enter the market. It is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will be balanced in 22 years to support the shock market. The steady growth spring market will not be absent. In terms of structure, value first and then growth, such as undervalued financial real estate, new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure. Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) it has been analyzed that this year may be two logics of shaking the market. First, compared with history, the policy of the three typical bear markets in 2008, 11 and 18 began to tighten significantly, while the current policy is still loose. Second, the market valuation of the typical bear market was at a high level before the stock market fell, and the current market valuation contradiction is not prominent. There is still a spring Market in the volatile city for the following reasons: first, the policy effect of steady growth is gradually emerging. According to the latest social finance data, the increment of social finance in January reached 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, of which loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion, which is a monthly statistical high, which verifies that the policy is being implemented. Second, after reviewing the history, it is found that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there is little disclosure of fundamental data of A-Shares from November to March, and the capital interest rate usually drops at the beginning of the year, and the risk appetite of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the growth rate of new social finance in January became positive and will gradually enter the upward cycle, which is conducive to improving investors’ pessimistic expectations of profits, which is one of the important conditions for the previous bottoms of a shares. As 2022 is a stable growth year, the growth rate of new social finance is expected to continue to rise, forming a positive support for a shares. After the Fed’s interest rate hike and other external factors affecting risk appetite are gradually implemented, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward cycle. The judgment of “√” of A-share trend throughout the year, “undervalued +” and “depression strategy” are still the dominant allocation strategy at present. From February to March, we can focus on the opportunities of industrial metals, petroleum and petrochemical, cement and so on, which benefit from the force of steady growth and the continuous rise of bulk prices.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that “steady growth” is far from the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform. Structurally, “dumbbell” configuration: on the one hand, the direction of China’s policy relaxation is determined, and “mini version 2014” is on the way, focusing on “big finance” benefiting from “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”; On the other hand, the layout, excavation and adjustment are deep, the pressure of congestion is fully released, and the prosperity is still good. 1) “Big finance”: there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to “mini version 2014” this year, including large financial sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies. As a top-down logical support and a “place with few people”, the repair of undervalued sectors will continue.
2) “Small high tech”: after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that it is currently in the stage of repeated bottom grinding and in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term. The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share overvalued boom track is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested. For a longer period of time, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment and short-term violent venting, the risk has been fully released; Second, the long-term sound and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the follow-up steady growth policy is expected to gradually strengthen; Third, from the forecast of annual reports of listed companies, there are many structural highlights in the profits of A-share enterprises. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of “stable growth” in policies, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicle), digital economy, seed industry”, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that since 2022, the landing effect of financial advance and infrastructure development has appeared. In January, the investment in major projects in 20 provinces and cities increased by 68% year-on-year, and the real estate regulatory policy has been further loosened. The credit derived blockage is gradually getting through. After the wide credit in the sense of total amount is confirmed, the monetary and credit environment will continue to improve in the first quarter. With the digestion of growth stock valuation, the improvement of credit conditions and the transmission of macro liquidity to the capital market, the short-term market is expected to usher in a resonant rebound. From the medium-term perspective, one thing to be reminded is that under the background of the slowdown of public offering + private placement and the reversal of the incremental market environment, it is not appropriate to use the experience of the past 2-3 years to understand the future market. It is suggested to increase the mining of low positions and relatively undervalued sectors. The rise of medium-term value is still on the way.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the rotation and style switching of the A-share market sector are more obvious, the overvalued growth sector has entered the adjustment stage, and the theme of “steady growth” boost, undervalued repair and digital economy have become new capital hotspots. At present, there is still room for the undervalued sector with high prosperity, so it is suggested to focus on it. First of all, under the background of great uncertainty overseas and the great downward pressure on China’s economy as a whole, the allocation cost performance of some overvalued growth track stocks is still low, which is easy to “resonate” in the process of overseas asset price revaluation, generate large selling pressure in the short term, and then fluctuate greatly. Secondly, the “steady growth” this time puts more emphasis on structural adjustment, and the upward space of traditional cycle industries is relatively limited. Finally, on the whole, the undervalued sector is more likely to usher in rising opportunities in the market style adjustment. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with “expected repair” potential, the sectors with defensive nature through the cycle and the sectors that are expected to have trend opportunities under the boost of the high boom.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that on the whole, under the environment that the global financial market gradually adapts to the hawkish shift of the Federal Reserve, the steady growth policies such as China’s RRR reduction continue to work, and social finance and other indicators are expected to stabilize, the market is expected to go further in spring. The comprehensive registration system and steady growth are good for undervalued blue chips, while the “hawks” of the Federal Reserve may put pressure on the growth sector, and the strength and non record low of undervalued blue chips such as SSE 50 during the adjustment in January. The spring market is still dominated by undervalued blue chips. In terms of specific configuration, undervalued blue chips still adhere to three main lines: 1) securities companies; 2) Central enterprises with high dividends related to national reform, especially the development direction of central finance such as railway and electric power; 3) Green electricity. At the same time, some drugs related to the epidemic, such as ventilator and vaccine, have also entered the allocation range.
