Tight relations between Russia and Ukraine, capital risk aversion escalating again

Market trend:

The three major indexes fell collectively in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed slightly in the late afternoon. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% and the gem index fell 0.52%; Stocks in the two cities fell more and rose less, and more than 2300 stocks fell; The daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 850 billion, and the net sales of funds from the North exceeded 3.5 billion. On the disk, the securities sector fell sharply, the banking sector was weak, and the Bank of Lanzhou fell nearly 9%. Steel, electric power, port and shipping, household appliances, coal, aquaculture and other sectors also fell. The military industry and gold sector soared. In addition, tourism, hotels, film and television and other stocks in the post epidemic era were active. On the whole, today can be seen as the make-up decline of cyclical stocks with strong recent performance. Under the background of tight relations between Russia and Ukraine, the risk aversion of funds increased. However, due to the large decline in the previous period, the decline today is slower than that in the previous period.

Hot sector analysis:

In terms of sectors, today we focus on tracking two sectors: first, the military industry sector; It is reported that the “Regulations on military equipment test and appraisal” will come into force on February 10, 2022. Based on the development trend of equipment informatization and intelligence, the regulations improved the working mode of test and appraisal, and improved the working system close to actual combat, flexible strategy, agility and efficiency. The media said that with the opening of the 14th five-year plan new cycle, the national defense informatization scene is rising. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China is expected to face a more complex international environment in economy, science and technology, politics and other aspects. National defense informatization will probably become the focus of investment throughout the 14th Five Year Plan period. The military industry sector has been fully adjusted in the early stage. Stimulated by the events in Russia and Ukraine, it is expected to be active again and again in the near future. Second, film and television media stocks rose sharply. The gem Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) raised the closing board, Zhewen Pictures Group Co.Ltd(601599) , Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Co.Ltd(600576) , Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) and other previous trading limits, Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) , Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) rose one after another. In addition, the tourism sector, which has risen sharply in the early stage, also performed well today. Recently, from tourism, hotels, airport shipping to film and television cinema, many stocks are slowly rising. At present, the sector has accelerated, and the market is more and more recognized in the post epidemic economic era.

Outlook:

On the whole, under the background of tight peripheral geopolitics, the overall performance of the market is still weak. One belt, one road to China, has a negative impact on Ukraine. There was little change in the afternoon hot spots in the market. When the overall market sentiment was weak, the willingness of funds to catch up was not strong. The overall impact of rising crude oil prices on China’s economy is negative, the profits of manufacturing industry are meager, and many enterprises are prone to losses. The main line of stabilizing the economy has not changed, but the recent increase of Chinese prefix stocks is too large, so it is not easy to catch up; The new infrastructure, including the green power mentioned in our main line, is expected to usher in a rebound opportunity after adjustment.

- Advertisment -