influenced and stimulated by the sharp decline of stock indexes in Shenzhen and Shanghai at the high level of overseas markets, the large-scale net outflow of funds in the North exceeding 3.7 billion, the sharp decline in cycle and finance, the continued acceleration of risk clearing in some Maogu stocks, and the continued shock and decline of most industry segmentation indexes last week, the stock indexes closed low and opened low, adjusted the negative line, and the volatility may reach the bottom twice, Or the end of wave C accelerated to catch the bottom and did not give an effective reversal signal. It is recommended that investors maintain a wait-and-see strategy.
from the perspective of the Shanghai stock index, in the process of opening low and taking the negative line to test the previous low, it is expected that the killing and falling risk of the "cycle + finance" sector will be released, which is conducive to the initiative of the future market to complete the recovery of the gap of 3356 regional short jump ; The growth enterprise market (GEM) index closed down the backward hammerhead line, or took the initiative to make up the gap of 2670 points due to the sharp decline of "bond Mao". However, when the volatility of wave C exceeds 22%, the momentum of continued wanton short selling will tend to gradually weaken; Combined with the operation of the region where the negative line of Shenzhen Component Index contraction adjustment continues to reach a new low, and the extremely negative shock line of Kechuang 50 Index contraction has reached 1150 points, it is expected that the construction stage of "empty trap" of growth index should be a low absorption opportunity of "good stock".
According to the opening of , securities, building materials, real estate, construction, Internet finance, seed industry, shipping, chicken, insurance, transportation services, warehousing and logistics, power and other sectors led the decline, with a large-scale net outflow of funds, with an average volatility of more than 2.8%, which had a strong negative impact and impact on the index. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 89 stocks rose by more than 9%, 167 stocks rose by more than 5%, 375 stocks rose by more than 3%, 17 stocks fell by more than 9%, 107 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 370 stocks fell by more than 3%, it is expected that the Shanghai index will not fill the gap before the second bottom, Investors should be highly vigilant against the investment risk of "high-level Mao stocks, bad fundamentals or poor performance stocks facing delisting after two consecutive years of losses".
On the news side, China and France signed the list of the fourth round of demonstration projects of third-party market cooperation, including seven projects in the fields of infrastructure, environmental protection and new energy, with a total amount of more than US $1.7 billion, involving a number of Chinese and French enterprises and financial institutions, and the cooperation areas involve Africa, central and Eastern Europe and other places.
On the Chinese side, the top-level design emphasizes increasing support for agricultural production, ensuring the production and supply of agricultural materials, stabilizing the price of agricultural materials, strengthening agricultural technical guidance, and ensuring the smooth development of spring farming and sowing preparation; Stabilize the sown area of grain, make overall plans for the production of "vegetable basket" products such as meat, eggs and vegetables, strengthen the protection of cultivated land and the construction of high-standard farmland, deeply implement the action to revitalize the seed industry, and ensure that the annual grain output will continue to remain above 1.3 trillion kg; We should strengthen the support of agricultural science and technology, deeply implement the action to revitalize the seed industry, solidly promote the tackling of key and core agricultural technologies, and speed up the improvement of the scientific research system in line with agricultural characteristics; We should actively develop modern facility planting and breeding, develop facility vegetable and livestock and poultry breeding according to local conditions, effectively stabilize the area of aquaculture, expand breeding space, and improve the supply level of important non-staple food; We should vigorously promote agricultural mechanization, strengthen the construction of cultivated land preparation and transformation suitable for mechanization, speed up the research and development of advanced and applicable agricultural machinery and equipment, and innovate varieties and technical models suitable for agricultural machinery operation.
The State Council printed and distributed the national emergency system plan for the 14th five year plan, deeply promoted the safety rectification of key industries such as hazardous chemicals, mines, fire control, transportation, construction, civil explosives, special equipment and large commercial complexes, and solved the weak links and prominent problems that restrict safe production; Deepen the supply side structural reform, and promote enterprises with weak security foundation, low security guarantee ability and still fail to meet the standards after rectification to withdraw from the market; Strengthen risk monitoring, early warning and prediction, make full use of Internet of things, industrial Internet, remote sensing, video recognition, fifth generation mobile communication (5g) and other technologies to improve the ability of disaster and accident monitoring and perception, optimize the layout of natural disaster monitoring station network, improve the emergency satellite observation constellation, and build a disaster and accident monitoring and early warning network with the integration of air, space, earth and sea; Widely deploy intelligent, networked, integrated and miniaturized sensing terminals, and implement national networking or provincial regional networking for safety monitoring and monitoring of high-risk industries; By 2025, significant progress will be made in the modernization of emergency management system and capacity, and an emergency management system with Chinese characteristics with unified command, both special and regular functions, sensitive response and linkage from top to bottom will be formed. The level of rule of law, scientific and technological informatization and comprehensive support capacity of emergency management will be greatly improved, and the situation of safe production and comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction will be stable and better, The level of natural disaster prevention has been significantly improved.
In combination with the national development and Reform Commission's public solicitation of opinions on the measures for the supervision of grain quality and safety (Draft for comments), improve the quality and safety inspection system in the links of grain purchase, storage and ex warehouse, and prohibit the combination of policies such as Chen Dingxin, adulteration, shoddy, excessive deduction of water and miscellaneous, grading and price reduction, It is expected that the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock indexes with active technical adjustment may have inertia to test the low point kinetic energy and potential energy, but from the perspective of volatility, the downward momentum tends to weaken, and the influence weight of institutional Mao stocks on the index tends to reduce. Under the background, once the new core main line makes an upward attack, the strong support area of the current important value center will trigger a bull rebound at any time.
the author believes that the first 53 foreign-funded projects in Shanghai new year focus on Shanghai's "3 + 6" key industrial system, and 37 involve key development industries such as biomedicine, electronic information, automobile and fashion consumer goods, with a total investment of US $5.44 billion; The pilot implementation plan of Hangzhou's national business environment innovation launched 153 reform items, covering 101 "specified actions" defined by the state and 52 "optional actions" with Hangzhou characteristics; The opinions of the general office of Zhengzhou Municipal People's Government on Further Strengthening the rescue and assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises put forward that the individual industrial and commercial households and small, medium and micro enterprises that cannot operate normally affected by the epidemic are exempted from three months' rent and halved for six months' rent, and the measures of "non-stop supply of arrears" are implemented for water, gas and electricity, including cars, department stores, catering, household appliances, household appliances E-commerce and other key areas continue to carry out Consumption Promotion Month activities. It is clear that in 2022 under the background of "stable growth", the capital market may continue to adjust due to internal and external disturbance factors, but the current adjustment throughout the year is a rare opportunity to absorb "good stocks" at a low price. Maintain a positive judgment on the trend of new infrastructure, semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet, new energy, Securities and insurance, Be patient and wait for the multi head counter attack after the index bottom grinding is completed. (the author is Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment)
attached: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 2022-2-14
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-2-14)
