The central bank released the financial data of January 2022.
The new social finance exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of stock social finance continued to improve. In January, the new social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.98 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the new scale exceeded the expected value of 5.4 trillion yuan, a record high. By the end of January 2022, the stock of social finance scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.46%. The growth rate was 0.17 percentage points higher than that in December 2021, and the improvement trend remained unchanged.
The high growth of credit and government debt is the core driving factor for the better than expected performance of social finance. Specifically, in January 2022, RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 381.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new scale exceeded the same period in 2018-2021, the highest in recent three years; Government bonds increased by 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing a rapid growth rate; New corporate bond financing was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year; The domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing increased by 2447.9 billion yuan, from negative to positive, an increase of 32.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
Short term loans and bill financing continued to increase, and medium and long-term loans of enterprises were repaired. By the end of January 2022, the loan balance of financial institutions was 196.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, slightly less than the growth rate at the end of December 2021; Financial institutions increased RMB loans by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly from the continuous increase in short-term loans and bill financing. At the same time, the new medium and long-term loans exceeded 2 trillion yuan and were also repaired. In January, short-term loans increased by 1.11 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 207.3 billion yuan year-on-year; New bill financing was 178.8 billion yuan, an increase of 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans increased by 2.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 142.4 billion yuan year-on-year, further narrowing the range. The increment of short-term loans and medium and long-term loans in the residential sector is weaker than that in the same period last year, and the demand needs to be restored. In January, the resident Department added 843 billion yuan of credit in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan; Among them, short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 202.4 billion yuan. Short term loans of enterprises increased further, and the growth rate of medium and long-term loans became positive. In January, the enterprise sector increased RMB loans by 3.36 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year.
The credit easing policy has been strengthened, and the results have been gradually released, which is conducive to the recovery of the banking industry. The steady growth policy has helped to form a credit easing pattern and underpin the macro-economy. With the advance issuance and acceleration of the issuance of special bonds, the development of infrastructure investment is expected to drive the growth of social financing and medium and long-term loan demand of enterprises. From the data, the amount of 2022q1 special bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, and the issuance of local government bonds increased to 698.857 billion yuan in January. At the same time, the implementation of real estate related policies is corrected, and affordable rental housing loans are not included in the concentration management, which is conducive to resolving the credit risk in the real estate field and alleviating the downward pressure on the growth rate of real estate related loans. Overall, the growth of bank credit and asset quality will benefit, which is conducive to the recovery of industry prosperity.
Investment suggestions: we will continue to pay attention to the promotion of broad credit on the improvement of the bank’s business environment, steady growth of performance and optimization of asset quality, be optimistic about the opportunity to repair the low valuation of bank shares in the first quarter, and maintain the “recommended” rating. In terms of individual stocks, two main lines are followed: (1) high quality urban and rural commercial banks with obvious regional economic advantages, strong growth momentum at the asset end and leading asset quality in the industry are recommended Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (601009), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (600926); (2) For individual stocks with high contribution to medium income, leading wealth management business and expected medium and long-term premium valuation, it is recommended to China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (00000 1).
The risk indicates that the macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of deterioration of asset quality.
