Report summary:
On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.68 yuan / kg, down 8.25% from last Friday. On Friday, the average price of Sanyuan piglets sold outside 15kg nationwide was 26.51 yuan / kg, down 7.60% from last Friday.
From the first week after the festival, the price of pigs fell in the form of collapse, and the average price of foreign three yuan fell below 13 yuan / kg. Although the national development and Reform Commission released on the 8th that the pig price has entered the secondary warning range of excessive decline and will carry out the collection and storage of pork reserves according to the situation, from the historical experience, it is difficult to change the cycle trend of collection and storage. In the pig industry, the Fundamentals of supply and demand are the fundamental factor determining the price. The opening of the second bottom of pig prices after the festival is in line with our early judgment on the trend of pig prices. It should be emphasized that our judgment on the next round of cycle reversal of pig price in 2022 is not limited to the de production of sows in the second half of 21, but also includes the second round of de production of farmers in the first half of this year. The current downward trend in pig prices and the overall rise in feed prices after the festival will further accelerate the industry’s initiative to reduce production capacity, which will further strengthen rather than weaken our expectations of cycle reversal. From the perspective of cycle dimension, we need to continue to pay attention to the depopulation of pig production capacity. From the perspective of enterprises, it is suggested to focus on the production capacity layout of enterprises and the phased results of cost reduction and efficiency increase. Years ago, pig companies successively released 21 year performance forecasts, with sharp decline in performance and full release of performance expectations. We believe that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually improve, and there are still great opportunities for the left layout of the sector. The pig breeding sector is mainly recommended. Continue to recommend and pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then pay attention to the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and uncertain growth.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: livestock and poultry breeding 8.23%, planting 4.29%, animal health care 3.83%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing 2.09%, feed 1.18% and fishery 0.89%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 21.79%, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 21.63%, Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) 16.46%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 15.79%, Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) 15.06%; The top five companies are:
Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) – 4.57%, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) – 6.14%, * ST Changyu – 11.42%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) – 15.25%.
Key tracking:
1. Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) announced that its subsidiary obtained the approval document of veterinary drug product number: on February 10, Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) announced that Liaoning Yikang, the holding subsidiary of the company, obtained the approval of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas for the production of bivalent inactivated Duck infectious serositis vaccine (type 1 SG4 strain + type 2 zzy7 strain), and obtained the approval document number of veterinary drug products.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) [attention is recommended] Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) risk tips: risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, impact of extreme weather, impact of animal diseases, etc.
