Hot spot quick review
Events
In January, new loans increased by 4.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year. The loan stock increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat month on month. In January, social finance increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 980 billion yuan year-on-year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points month on month. Financial data “made a good start” to verify the strength of steady growth and reaffirm the “good fortune” 1 of bank stocks in 2022. Recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) benefiting from wealth management opportunities, pay attention to regional leading targets such as Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) benefiting from the expected improvement of housing related exposure. In the overseas interest rate increase environment, we are optimistic about BOC Hong Kong.
Commentary
Q1: Why did the financial data exceed expectations?
New loans increased by 400 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the contribution to the public, while residential loans decreased by 430 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and short-term corporate loans and bill discounting increased by 440 / 320 billion yuan year-on-year respectively, contributing mainly to the year-on-year increment, and medium and long-term corporate loans increased by 60 billion yuan year-on-year. Our research also shows that credit supply accelerated at the end of January. Social finance increased by 980 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly contributed by loans, government bonds and corporate bonds, with an increase of 3800 / 3600 / 190 billion yuan year-on-year respectively.
Q2: has the demand for corporate loans recovered?
Medium and long-term corporate loans ended with a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months, and turned to a year-on-year increase of 60 billion yuan, which is not large. However, considering the high base in January 2021 (an increase of 380 billion yuan year-on-year), the overall credit demand is good. On the other hand, bill discount increased by 320 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that Bill impulse still exists. Our sample bank survey shows that the credit supply of large state-owned banks and regional banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is good, while the supply of some small and medium-sized banks is weak. It is expected that the differentiation of credit demand between regions and banks still exists.
Q3: Why did residents’ loans increase significantly less?
In January, residents’ loans decreased by 430 billion yuan year-on-year, of which residents’ short-term / medium and long-term loans decreased by 200 / 200 billion yuan year-on-year respectively, indicating that residents’ consumption and house purchase demand are still weak, which is also affected by the Spring Festival earlier than in previous years. On the whole, the financing conditions of residential mortgage loans have improved. The data of the shell Research Institute also shows that the lending cycle has been shortened and the interest rate has decreased for three consecutive months since October last year.
Q4: can the “good start” be sustained?
According to our investigation, the project reserves of large state-owned banks are sufficient, and the “good start” in the first quarter is expected to continue, while the credit demand of small and medium-sized banks still needs to be observed in the follow-up. Throughout the year, green, inclusive small and micro enterprises and infrastructure loans are an important direction of credit lending this year. We expect to contribute 80% of the increment of new loans. On the whole, the increment of credit this year can increase year-on-year.
Risk
The economic growth rate fell faster than expected; Risk diffusion in the real estate industry.
