Market performance this week: this week, the major indexes performed differently. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index fell 0.78% and 5.59% respectively. This week, the average daily turnover of A-Shares reached 915.376 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 10.744 billion yuan. The coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical sectors performed well.
Optimistic about the rising market before the two sessions. The two sessions in 2022 will be held in March. According to historical data statistics, the market probability rose in the month before the two sessions. In the past 10 years, the Shanghai stock index rose in the month before the two sessions, of which the rise in the month before the two sessions in 2019 was as high as 13.79%. The two sessions are worth looking forward to.
After the Spring Festival, digital currency concept stocks continued to rise, and the policy side was good for the development of digital currency.
After the Spring Festival, the digital currency index rose sharply. This week, the digital currency index rose as high as 10.97%. Good policies, Xi Jinping General Secretary delivered a speech at the 34th collective study of the Political Bureau of the 19th CPC Central Committee, calling for continuous strengthening, excellence and expansion of China’s digital economy. In addition to policy, digital currency has also been widely used in the Winter Olympic Games, covering seven major scenarios, such as transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption, tourism and sightseeing. Benefiting from the application of digital currency in the Beijing Winter Olympics and the improvement and implementation of policies and laws related to China’s digital RMB, the development prospect of China’s digital RMB is very good and investors’ investment sentiment is high. Many stocks rose by more than 100%, such as Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) and Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) .
The communication industry is expected to usher in new development opportunities due to the impact of yuancosmic fire. Since 2021, the concept of meta universe has exploded. Major companies at home and abroad have run into the yuan universe. The concept of metauniverse based on VR / AR technology is on fire, and relevant companies have laid out metauniverse one after another. The three major operators China Mobile, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) , China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) have successively announced their full entry into the meta universe. At present, the valuation of the communication industry is relatively stable. Affected by the broad development prospects of yuancosmos in the future, it is optimistic about the relevant sectors of yuancosmos.
Pig breeding sector configuration is at the right time. In October 2021, pig prices bottomed out and pig breeding entered a deep loss mode, which is conducive to entering the risk release period and bringing a higher margin of safety. At the end of January, the price of live pigs fell to 13.97 yuan / kg, significantly lower than the average breeding cost of the industry. The intensification of losses will further drive the industry to reduce production capacity, and the cumulative decline of fertile sows will gradually increase. Expectations for the pig breeding sector will gradually increase. Optimistic about the pig cycle. At present, the pig price has bottomed out and the pace of continuous capacity reduction has accelerated. At present, the investment risk of the sector is low and the safety margin is high. The market shows positive expectations. At present, it is the best time to allocate the pig breeding sector.
Suggested allocation: in January, the scale of social finance reached a record high, the effect of steady growth was obvious, and the investor confidence was repaired. Under the background, the market fell more than expected in January, which made room and opportunity for the market in February. We are optimistic about the overall market in February. Before the two sessions in March, we are still optimistic about the industries and individual stocks with large early correction range, high outlook and expected new trends of the two sessions. The structural market will focus on specialization and innovation, double carbon, meta universe and consumption.
Under the expectation of more new trends in the two sessions and the influence of relatively loose monetary policy, market sentiment will be further stimulated and optimistic about manufacturing and consumer enterprises with brand advantages.
Suggestions: 1) focus on consumer sectors with good performance stability, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and food and beverage; 2) Optimistic about the double carbon field with large callback range and expected new trends of the two sessions:
New energy industry chain; 3) We are optimistic about the meta universe and digital economy with broad development space in the future.
Risk tips: 1) the risk of continuous and repeated epidemic; 2) Risk of policy adjustment; 3) The risk of the Fed raising interest rates in advance.
