Banking stocks are taking off!
In the first week after the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger, the performance of bank stocks was eye-catching. Statistics show that from February 7 to 11, the bank index (CITIC) rose by 6.11% and the Shanghai index rose by 3.02% in the same period. The prices of some bank stocks approached or even exceeded the historical high, attracting funds from all walks of life.
funds chasing strong rise
Since 2022, the overall performance of bank stocks has been brilliant. From January 4 to February 11, the bank index (CITIC) rose by 8.73%, second only to the coal sector. Individual stocks such as Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) have risen by more than 20% since the beginning of the year, and the prices of individual stocks such as Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) have broken through or approached historical highs.
Hot bank stocks have also attracted all kinds of funds. Taking northbound funds as an example, wind statistics show that the net purchase amount of northbound funds of individual stocks such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) in recent one month ranks first.
Insiders said that the recent strong performance of bank stocks stems from at least three aspects.
First, the unexpected financial data boosted the confidence of institutions in bank stocks. According to the data released by the people’s Bank of China recently, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, and the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan in January. The data of the two single months reached a record high, reflecting the effect of policy support for steady growth.
Second, the performance of bank shares has increased greatly, forming a strong support for the stock price. According to the data released by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, in 2021, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Previously, the performance express disclosed by many banks showed that the net profit growth rate of many banks was more than 20%, or even more than 30%.
Third, the undervalued value meets the capital defense needs. At present, in the environment of weak A-share shock, the valuation of popular stocks was high and the share price fell. Some institutional investors have a strong defensive mentality, and the undervalued characteristics of bank stocks are in line with this kind of capital demand. Wind data shows that the current overall P / E ratio of the banking sector is about 5.7 times.
In addition, a number of banks have announced that they have launched measures to stabilize stock prices, which has also had a positive impact on stock prices to a certain extent.
intensive institutional research
While banking stocks rose strongly, institutions also strengthened their research on banking stocks.
On February 11, 2022, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) announced that it would welcome the research of e fund, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) and other institutions on February 10. From the published research content, credit growth points and small and micro businesses are the focus of institutional concern.
In fact, various institutions are speeding up the pace of investigating bank stocks, mainly urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks. Wind statistics show that since the beginning of this year (February 13), there are Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) and other banks that have attracted the research of securities companies, fund companies, insurance asset management and other institutions, with a total of 351 research institutions.
In 2022, when the “good start” was achieved, the credit supply situation was paid much attention, and the highlights of many banks were prominent. For example, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) said in response to questions from institutions that from the perspective of “a good start”, the increment of credit supply in the first half of January 2022 has been higher than that in January last year, and the subsequent increment can be expected. In addition, the direction of bank credit investment and the development of financial management business are also the focus of institutional research.
Looking forward to the future, many institutions said that at present, the safety margin of the banking sector is high and continue to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. It is expected that the asset quality of listed banks will be in a stable state in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank stocks.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the “report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021” released by the central bank recently proposed “a better combination of stable aggregate and excellent structure” for follow-up credit, indicating that the short-term policy environment is still relatively positive. It is expected that the performance of the annual report in the performance period in March and April will continue to support the valuation and repair of the banking sector.
In terms of investment targets, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) suggests selecting stocks along two main lines: first, select banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation; Second, the upward boom is the core assets of banks that are determined and long-term, with strong performance sustainability and relatively scarce. Other institutions suggest paying attention to banks with advantages in infrastructure, green, high-end manufacturing and inclusive small and micro businesses.
