It is reported that during China’s Spring Festival holiday, international oil prices hit a new high since 2016 under many favorable conditions. In the past week, they have risen more than once, reaching the 100 yuan mark. Affected by this, at 24:00 on February 17, China’s oil price probably increased, or ushered in “four consecutive rises”.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that the recent geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns support the high oil price. According to the latest EIA data, as of the week of February 4, crude oil inventories fell by 4.8 million barrels to 410.4 million barrels, the lowest commercial inventory level since October 2018. Previously, the market expected crude oil inventories to increase. Again capital said that gasoline demand has rebounded significantly, the impact of the Omicron variant has passed, and travel demand has recovered. Refineries increased production, resulting in a decline in crude oil inventories. It is believed that the supply side disturbance under the current extremely low inventory will make the elasticity of oil price more obvious, and it is not ruled out that there is still upward space for crude oil under the supply side disturbance. In addition, we need to pay attention to the possibility of Iranian crude oil returning to the market and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, or bring some pressure on oil prices in the medium term. Crude oil prices have reached a new high, global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leaders in the oil service industry have fully benefited. Pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise of oil prices has driven the increase and expansion of chemical products prices. Among them, private large-scale refining has fully benefited, focusing on Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by cost demand, focusing on Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
