Last Friday, the market fell collectively, and the gem index fell by nearly 3%. Last week, it fell by nearly 17%, and BEIXIANG bought 1.005 billion yuan of net assets. In terms of sectors, digital currency, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, coal, banking, real estate and other sectors led the rise, while covid-19 treatment, traditional Chinese medicine, covid-19 detection, CRO, chicken breeding and other sectors led the decline.
In the US stock market, due to rising inflation and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the three major US stock indexes fell under pressure on Friday, with the Dow down 1.43%, the NASDAQ down 2.78% and the S & P 500 down 1.9%. Internet technology, semiconductor and automobile stocks fell sharply.
At today’s morning meeting of securities companies, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believed that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may be large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst may take time, China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the undervalued sector is more likely to usher in rising opportunities in the market style adjustment. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with “expected repair” potential, the sectors with defensive through the cycle and the sectors that are expected to have trend opportunities under the boost of the high boom.
CICC: the policy is strengthened, and “steady growth” is still the phased main line
Last week, under the background that the financial data in January exceeded expectations to reflect the acceleration of steady growth, the market was still polarized and the growth sector continued to callback. The difference between the weekly rise and fall of the Shanghai stock index and the gem index was 8.6 percentage points. In addition to external factors such as the tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the risk of US sanctions suppressing risk appetite, the large increase in the early stage, high valuation and expectation, not low position and the relative lack of upward catalyst in the short term may be the more important internal reasons for the adjustment of the growth sector. The four seasons report of public funds shows that the holdings of active partial equity funds are concentrated in some growth tracks, The recent position adjustment may form a certain negative feedback with the fluctuation of stock price.
At present, the adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but it may take time for investors to adjust their risk appetite under the background of lack of short-term positive catalyst. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector. We judge that when China’s growth expectation is gradually stabilized and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : there may still be for the sector with both undervalued value and high prosperity
At present, the rotation and style switching of the A-share market sector are more obvious, the overvalued growth sector has entered the adjustment stage, and the theme of “steady growth” boost, undervalued repair and digital economy have become new capital hotspots. We believe that there is still room for undervalued sectors with high prosperity, and we suggest focusing on them.
First of all, under the background of great uncertainty overseas and the great downward pressure on China’s economy as a whole, the allocation cost performance of some overvalued growth track stocks is still low, which is easy to “resonate” in the process of overseas asset price revaluation, generate large selling pressure in the short term, and then fluctuate greatly.
Secondly, the “steady growth” this time puts more emphasis on structural adjustment, and the upward space of traditional cycle industries is relatively limited.
Finally, on the whole, the undervalued sector is more likely to usher in rising opportunities in the market style adjustment. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with “expected repair” potential, the sectors with defensive through the cycle and the sectors that are expected to have trend opportunities under the boost of the high boom.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : covid-19 oral drug has great commercial potential, and the leader of small molecule cdmo benefits
On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the import registration of Pfizer’s covid-19 virus treatment drug nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets combination packaging (i.e. paxlovid) with conditions. The positive significance of the approval of the drug is to reduce the risk of medical resource run, and the in vitro test shows that it is effective for the mutant strain. At present, China has a “vaccine + drug” combined epidemic prevention tool. It is expected that the prevention and control policy will be more flexible and effective. At the same time, we also believe that the government will continue to actively support the research and development of relevant drugs by Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises.
Pfizer estimates that paxlovid will supply 120 million people in 2022. Corresponding to the huge potential of the upstream supply chain, we think it is conducive to China’s excellent small molecule cdmo leading enterprises, including Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . CXO industry has made a lot of adjustments in the early stage, and the valuation of most companies fell back to less than 1peg. It is recommended to pay attention. By tracking the investment and financing of global innovative drugs and the R & D expenses of MNC, we can see that pharmaceutical innovation continues to increase and the performance of CXO industry is sustainable.
