where will growth stocks go
The recent performance of growth stocks is significantly weaker than that of value stocks. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, the gem index, which mainly represents growth stocks, fell by more than 17% during the year, and the SSE 50 index, which mainly represents value stocks, fell by less than 5%. Market participants believe that the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has dampened the performance of growth stocks.
At the same time, growth stocks in the US stock market were also significantly weaker than value stocks. The NASDAQ index fell nearly 12% this year and the Dow Jones industrial index fell less than 5%.
Historically, growth stocks, whether A-Shares or U.S. stocks, tend to show high volatility but high return. In this case, where will the growth stocks in the A-share market go?
high volatility and high return of growth stocks
In the past 10 years (from 2012 to 2021), the NASDAQ index has outperformed the Dow Jones industrial index in annual growth for nine years, with a cumulative increase of more than 300 percentage points. It's not just that the Dow outperformed the NASDAQ this year. In the last round of US stock market adjustment (from 2007 to 2009), the Nasdaq's largest decline was close to 55%, and the Dow's largest decline in the same period was less than 48%; In the adjustment from 2000 to 2002, the Dow fell by less than 39% and the NASDAQ fell by more than 78%.
Back to the A-share market, in the past 10 years, the growth enterprise market index has exceeded the Shanghai 50 Index in 6 years, surpassing the Shanghai 50 index by more than 250 percentage points. The fluctuation of the gem index is also significantly greater than that of the SSE 50 index. From 2013 to 2015, the gem index rose for three consecutive years, and then fell for three consecutive years.
list of low and high growth stocks released
In the long run, it is a high probability event that growth stocks outperform value stocks. Based on this, data treasure has counted the stocks that are expected to have high growth in recent years. Considering that the performance forecast or express report of some companies in 2021 has been released, the high growth stocks screened by databao need to meet that the performance of last year is expected to exceed the expectations of the organization, and the possibility of the continuation of high growth of such companies in the future is greater, that is, the upper limit of performance growth last year should be at least higher than the net profit growth rate unanimously predicted by the organization. In addition, the screening conditions include but are not limited to the following aspects:
First, there are more than 10 rating agencies;
Second, last year, this year and next year, the institutions unanimously predicted that the growth rate of net profit would be more than 30%;
Third, the P / E ratio calculated according to the consensus forecast net profit of institutions this year is less than 50 times;
Fourth, the latest price has fallen by more than 20% from last year's high.
Excluding the secondary new shares listed since 2021, there are only 38 in total. In terms of industry distribution, 38 stocks are mainly distributed in power equipment, electronics, medicine and biology, national defense and military industry, and the power equipment industry has the largest number of stocks, reaching 9. On the whole, most of the above stocks are track stocks that have performed well in recent years.
In terms of market value, there are eight 100 billion market value stocks in the list, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . Among them, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) and other stocks mostly belong to the leading varieties in the field of track segmentation. Stocks with lower market value include Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) and so on, all of which are less than 10 billion yuan.
sustained high growth, performance exceeding expectations
Judging from the increase of net profit in performance forecast last year, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) and other 21 stocks exceeded 100% in advance. Among them, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) is expected to have a net profit of 760 million yuan to 830 million yuan, significantly reversing losses. Huachuang Securities believes that the performance of Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) has significantly exceeded expectations. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 776 million yuan, 1.525 billion yuan and 2.173 billion yuan respectively.
From the average growth rate of net profit this year and next year, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) and other stocks all exceeded 70%. Among them, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) institutions unanimously predict that the growth rate of net profit this year will exceed 254%, the growth rate next year will exceed 33%, and the average growth rate will exceed 144%.
R & D efforts far exceed those of A-Shares
R & D strength is the foundation to support the rapid growth of listed companies. According to the statistics of data treasure, the R & D expenditure of 38 listed companies in the third quarterly report of 2021 totaled 6.852 billion yuan, accounting for 3.21% of the total operating revenue of that year, and that of A-share listed companies accounted for only 1.66% in the same period, that is to say, the R & D investment (R & D expenditure / operating revenue) of 38 listed companies was much higher than that of A-share listed companies.
Specifically, Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) and other companies accounted for more than 10% of the R & D investment in the third quarterly report of last year. Companies with low R & D efforts are mainly Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
northward capital increased holdings by more than 5 billion yuan
Some stocks obtained funds to go north and made a large-scale bottom reading. According to the statistics of data treasure, according to the rough calculation of the average transaction price since January, the northbound capital has increased the positions of 38 stocks by more than 5 billion yuan. Specifically, including Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and other stocks, northbound funds increased their holdings by more than 1 billion yuan. The largest reduction is Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , more than 2.3 billion yuan.
Such stocks have risen significantly in the growth stock market in the past, but they have also decreased recently. From the perspective of this year's predicted P / E ratio (the latest market value is calculated according to the net profit predicted by the organization this year), the predicted P / E ratio of Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) is less than 18 times, which is the lowest, and the predicted P / E ratio of individual stocks such as China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) is less than 30 times.
