In the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday in the year of the tiger, the performance of the banking sector was eye-catching, many bank stocks strengthened, and the price was close to the previous high. Insiders said that multiple positive factors boosted the rise of the banking sector. At present, the safety margin of the sector is high, and the market outlook continues to be optimistic about the performance of banking stocks.
The sector performed strongly
Data show that from February 7 to 11, the bank index (CITIC) rose 6.11% and the Shanghai index rose 3.02% in the same period.
In 2022, the overall performance of bank stocks was bright. When the overall performance of A-Shares was relatively weak, the bank index (CITIC) rose by 8.73% from January 4 to February 11, second only to the coal sector. Individual stocks such as Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) have risen by more than 20% since 2022, and the share prices of Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) are closer to the previous high.
The strong performance of bank stocks is driven by at least three aspects. First, the unexpected financial data boosted market confidence. According to the data released by the people's Bank of China recently, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, and the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan in January. The data of the two single months reached a record high, reflecting the effect of policy support for steady growth.
Second, the large increase in the performance of bank stocks constitutes a strong support. According to the data released by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, in 2021, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Previously, the performance express disclosed by many banks showed that the net profit growth rate of many banks in 2021 was more than 20%, or even more than 30%.
Third, the undervalued characteristics of bank stocks meet the needs of capital defense. Data show that the current overall P / E ratio of the banking sector is about 5.7 times. In addition, a number of banks have announced that they have launched measures to stabilize stock prices, which also has a positive impact on stock prices to a certain extent.
intensive institutional research
In 2022, some bank stocks ushered in institutional intensive research. For example, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) recently announced that on February 10, the bank welcomed the research of e fund, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) and other institutions. From the published research content, credit growth points and small and micro businesses have become the focus of institutional concern.
At present, various institutions are speeding up the pace of investigating bank stocks, mainly urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks. According to the data, since 2022, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) have attracted the research of securities companies, fund companies, insurance asset management and other institutions.
In the course of research, the credit supply at the "good start" time point in 2022 has attracted much attention from institutions, and many banks have outstanding highlights in this regard. For example, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) said in response to questions from institutions that from the perspective of "a good start", the increment of credit supply in the first half of January 2022 has been higher than that in January last year, and the subsequent increment can be expected. In addition, the direction of bank credit investment and the development of financial management business are also the focus of institutional research.
optimistic about the future
Looking forward to the future, many institutions said that at present, the safety margin of the banking sector is high and continue to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. It is expected that the asset quality of listed banks will be in a stable state in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank stocks. In terms of investment targets, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) suggests selecting stocks along two main lines: first, select banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation; Second, the core assets of the sector with strong performance sustainability and relatively scarce.
Some positive signs can also be seen from the "report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021" recently released by the central bank. Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the report proposed to "achieve a better combination of stable total amount and excellent structure" for the follow-up credit. It is expected that the short-term policy environment will have a positive impact on the industry. The fulfillment of the annual report results in March and April is expected to continue to support the valuation repair of the banking sector.
