in the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday in the year of the tiger, the A-share market showed a structural market again, with erratic hot spots and frequent style switching. While the Shanghai stock index rose for four consecutive trading days, the gem index adjusted one after another. While the fund heavy position sector performed poorly, the once neglected undervalued sector ushered in a high light moment. Focusing on 2022, is the investment main line growth or value?
in this regard, well-known private placement management institutions debated the investment direction of A-Shares in the year of the tiger. Some private equity fund managers said that the growth style is still the main investment line of the whole year, and they have begun to increase their positions in new energy and other tracks. There are also views that the relative growth of value has certain advantages, but the overall difference is not significant.
performance differentiation of 10 billion private placement
In the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday in the year of the tiger, the market continued the differentiation market before the holiday: the Shanghai stock index continued to rise, but the gem index corrected many times. Popular tracks such as new energy vehicles have continued to adjust since December 2021, and the share price of leading stock Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) began to decline after hitting a new high in early December 2021. As of February 11, 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price fell by nearly 30% at the higher point, and the share price has been callback by more than 16% since 2022. Affected by the stock price adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the gem index fell by 5.59% in the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday in the year of the tiger. The decline has exceeded 17% since 2022.
Since January 2022, the market has shown obvious high-low switching characteristics. The undervalued sectors have risen in turn, and the previous popular tracks have fallen one after another. Affected by this, the private placement performance of the previous heavy position popular track was significantly corrected. According to the data of the third-party platform, as of February 7, the number of 10 billion private placement reached 113, with nearly 90% of losses since 2022. Among them, the average income of 93 10 billion private placements with performance disclosure has been - 4.32% since 2022, the loss of 35 10 billion private placements has exceeded 5%, the loss of 7 10 billion private placements has exceeded 10%, and the maximum loss range is close to 15%.
In addition, the net value of products managed by some private placement leaders once fell to around 0.7 yuan, and many private placement products fell below the warning line. Recently, there are market rumors that the unit net value of more than 50 private placement products owned by Dan bin, chairman of Dongfang harbor, fell below the warning line of 0.8 yuan, and the net value of 6 products fell below the stop loss line of 0.7 yuan. Dan bin himself responded that the net value of products was relatively stable, but from the perspective of net value performance, the net value of many products has fallen by more than 20% since its establishment. Another 10 billion level private placement Shanghai Hefu investment also announced that the net value of its Hefu flexible hedge No. 9 phase a private securities investment fund had touched the warning line on February 10.
Since 2022, the overvalued sector has continued to adjust, which has made many managers sigh "sudden change in painting style". A private equity person sighed: "now I dare not predict the market, and I will be 'slapped in the face' soon." A fund manager in Beijing also said: "because it is difficult to accurately predict growth or value style, we can only try to find companies with internal growth, and the investment strategy will be more balanced in 2022."
For the reasons for the market style switching, Yu Zongliang, deputy general manager of Xingshi investment, said that the high valuation sector had a bad start in 2022, and the undervalued sector performed relatively well. The core reason is the change of China's macroeconomic environment, in which "wide credit" is the main focus. In terms of the total amount, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale began to rebound from November 2021, and the new scale also significantly exceeded market expectations, creating a historical monthly peak; Structurally, RMB loans, government bonds and corporate bonds issued to the real economy are the main contributions of the year-on-year increase in new social finance, respectively reflecting the initial results of easing policies, the obvious characteristics of fiscal front force and the active financing of enterprises. During the credit period in history, the broad-based index of the stock market generally showed an upward trend.
capture individual stock opportunities in differentiation
After the popular track stocks generally stalled in the early stage, the traditional undervalued sectors that had been silent for a long time performed brilliantly. In this process, some funds have shifted from high allocation growth stocks to undervalued sectors. Xia Junjie, general manager of Renqiao assets, said that in the future, both the differentiation of China and the United States stock markets and the differentiation of the structure of A-Shares will lead to the continuous warming of the undervalued sector. First of all, the structural differentiation of A-Shares will continue to unfold. At present, there are still many undervalued assets in a shares, and these cheap assets are now highly deterministic. Secondly, the differentiation of Chinese and American stock markets will also become inevitable. The economic fundamentals, cycle position and liquidity trend of China and the United States determine that A-Shares may go out of the independent market.
However, there are some differences on whether the future main line is growth or value. Liang Hui, founder and general manager of Xiangju capital, revealed that it had previously reduced the allocation proportion of popular tracks such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles, but it may pay attention to some leading companies with "killed valuation" in the future. "After the hot track sectors such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries increased significantly in 2021, considering the crowded track and the fact that the performance growth rate in 2022 may be lower than that in 2021, the configuration has been reduced. However, the valuations of some companies have been killed very low, and we may gradually pay attention to some leading companies in the future, but we will not over configure them." He said that the long-term growth ceiling of the undervalued main line is obvious, the expected return is not high, the power of capital allocation is weakened after the valuation repair, and the investment opportunities of growth stocks will appear again.
Another private equity fund manager believes that growth stocks represented by new energy are still the main line of long-term growth. He revealed that he has been adding positions in the new energy sector recently, and some stocks have a certain cost performance, which can gradually increase the allocation in the adjustment. "We judge that the undervalued blue chip market will last until April at most, and the long-term main line is still the hot track sector such as new energy. At present, there are differences on the market within the company, but it is agreed that there are deterministic opportunities in the new energy sector."
Yu Zongliang said that the "wide credit" period is more favorable for the pro cyclical sector, which can be compared with the market performance in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2020. Lianhai assets also said that the value sector is relatively more advantageous. Due to certain changes in the macroeconomic environment, the investment style in 2022 will also change. In the next year, the relative growth of value has certain advantages, and the market style will be biased towards large cap stocks, but the overall difference is not significant. The performance of the sector is driven by profit growth, while the stable growth policy is driven by events. New energy, science and technology, high-end manufacturing and other sectors benefited from the policy stimulus, and the income expectation was strongly supported. Although it still takes time for the performance to be realized, it still has a certain aggressiveness under the condition of reasonable valuation.
continue to be optimistic about the spring Market
For the future, many 10 billion level private placement are still actively optimistic about the spring market. Qinghequan capital said that after the systematic adjustment in January, the market sentiment has been released to a large extent. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the market expectation of the economy will improve. After the sharp decline of A-Shares with U.S. stocks, the follow-up probability ushered in an independent repair market. In 2022, with China's steady growth and "double width" of currency and credit, the probability of further adjustment risk of A-Shares is low.
The acquisition of investment income requires more in-depth mining of high-quality stocks, and more attention is paid to the matching degree of performance and valuation.
Yu Zongliang said that the financial data of 2022 had a "good start", the total amount of social finance and credit structure improved year-on-year, and will be transmitted to the real economy indicators in the future. It is expected that in the near future, under the background that the policy effect continues to appear, China's economy will improve in a trend. Market risk appetite and the prosperity of more industries will improve. Therefore, there is no long-term concern about A-Shares and they are still in the stage with more structural opportunities.
Liang Hui believes that the new market scale significantly exceeded the expectation in January. In the context of steady growth, the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to rise steadily. After substantial adjustments since the beginning of the year, some of the original overvalued sectors have basically completed the "digestion". Based on the current market position, there is reason to regain confidence. "At present, we are allocated in the undervalued sector and leading growth stocks. It is expected that the main income this year may come from two aspects: the high growth of performance and the return of undervalued companies, and explore forward-looking investment opportunities through in-depth research." Liang Hui also reminded that we should pay attention to the following possible market risk points: first, follow the rise and fall of market sentiment; Second, a stock stepping on thunder; Third, the performance is lower than expected, especially the anti risk ability of small and medium-sized companies needs to be tested.
In terms of specific investment direction, qinghequan capital said that first, the stock selection logic should change to "high growth and high return on net assets (ROE)"; Second, after the decline of risk appetite, stock selection needs to be more refined, and companies with reasonable pricing will increase the layout; Third, specific to the industry, we are optimistic about new energy, automotive intelligence and military industry with independent growth cycle, as well as the required consumer goods that have been greatly affected by the epidemic in the previous two years but whose fundamentals are gradually restored, and some service industries whose fundamentals are expected to recover after the epidemic subsides.
Liang Hui is more optimistic about investment opportunities in offshore wind power and computer sectors. In terms of offshore wind power, offshore wind power is expected to maintain rapid growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period. As wind power enters parity, the cost of offshore wind power decreases rapidly and the supply pattern is improving. In the computer sector, he is optimistic about information innovation companies. In the context of China's technological progress, the general environment is more friendly to the industry. By observing the relevant core targets through the bottom-up method, it will be found that these companies have low current valuation and are expected to have high profit growth in the next three years. However, Liang Hui also believes that the volatility of the industry will bring a certain test to the asset allocation of investors, especially in the period of fragile market confidence. Therefore, we should always pay attention to the changes in the market environment and further increase the allocation after the market stabilizes.
