The shock at the beginning of 2022 worried investors, and there were countless questions in the confusion: what factors triggered the sharp decline of popular tracks? Did the "Ning nationality" and "Mao nationality" collectively fall out of value? How will the market perform in 2022? Which areas have more investment value? Can the "two sessions" market be expected?
At this critical moment, investment researchers who have experienced cattle and bears are often better able to give insights through the fog. The reporter of China Fund News found nine investment "veterans" who have served as fund managers for more than 13 years to feel the pulse of the market and find the direction for the future layout. They are Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief investment officer (equity) of China Southern Fund, Zhou Weiwen, chairman and investment director of China Europe Fund equity investment decision-making committee, Zou Xi, deputy general manager and equity investment director of RONGTONG fund, deputy general manager of Great Wall Fund Yang Jianhua, investment director, Qian Ruinan, deputy general manager of industrial fund, Xu Lirong, deputy general manager and investment director of Guohai Franklin fund, Chen Jun, executive vice president and chairman of investment decision-making committee of Soochow Fund, Zou Wei, deputy general manager and chief equity investment officer of Huian fund, and Cheng Zhou, head of active equity investment division 3 of Cathay Pacific Fund.
These investment "veterans" believe that the market may show a volatile pattern in 2022 and are not pessimistic about the current market adjustment. At present, the adjustment of many track targets has been basically completed; The previous policies of the central bank were more forward-looking, and there was room for loose monetary policy, which was relatively beneficial to the market.
hot track stocks fell due to multiple factors
China Fund News: at the beginning of the year of the tiger, hot track stocks such as medicine, new energy and big consumption fell sharply. What are the main reasons? Will you continue to adjust?
Shi Bo: there are two main reasons for the adjustment of track stocks since this year: one is the game behavior of Chinese investors, which is reflected in the relatively concentrated positions of some track stocks, the lack of incremental funds in the short term to promote the further rise of relevant stocks, and at the same time, the valuation of stocks is not low, so there is a significant pullback; The second is the emotional transmission from overseas. With the fermentation of the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve, the US bond yield has risen rapidly by nearly 50 basis points recently. In the process of rising interest rates, the NASDAQ index retreated by nearly 20% from its high point, which also had a great negative impact on the trend of Chinese growth stocks.
At present, there is no problem with the investment logic of industries such as medicine, new energy and large consumption. The overvalued value of some companies has been digested during the decline. Therefore, the adjustment process provides an opportunity to further select the layout.
Zhou Weiwen: the main reasons are: first, in recent years, the share price increase of these track companies has far exceeded the profit increase, so they need to rest; Second, after experiencing the low interest rate and continuous monetary environment in the past two years, the world will now face the process of raising interest rates and tightening liquidity, which has also had a negative impact on the stock prices of similar overseas tracks; Third, in the past few years, investors with track as the main direction, whether individuals or institutions, have relatively concentrated positions, and this position structure is easy to amplify fluctuations.
After a period of adjustment, the stock price gains and profit growth of these stocks have been basically consistent in the past three years, and the bubble is relatively small. Although the market needs to go through a process of eliminating the false and the real, the overall downlink space is not large.
Chen Jun: in the short term, the market is in the state of stock game. From the perspective of overseas markets, the Federal Reserve recently released its first monetary policy statement in 2022 and released a strong signal that interest rates may be raised rapidly; From the internal perspective of a shares, after the structural rise of the market in recent two or three years, the valuation of popular track stocks is not cheap. Under the joint action of the two, there is a strong risk aversion in the market recently, and they have reduced their positions or looked for investment varieties with lower value.
Cheng Zhou: there is little possibility that these popular tracks will continue to be significantly adjusted. On the one hand, the early adjustment has released a lot of pressure on profit taking, and it can be seen that while these popular tracks have been adjusted, there are still many hot spots in the market, indicating that funds have not left the market; On the other hand, the introduction of steady growth policies will repair investors' risk appetite.
Zou Wei: we think there are two main reasons: first, the trading structure is relatively crowded, which will aggravate the short-term fluctuation of the market; Second, the medium and long-term growth of some industries has been questioned by the market for various reasons, which has exacerbated everyone's concerns about the valuation level.
As for whether the adjustment will continue, we should also look at it from two aspects: in the short term, the problem of transaction structure will be solved with the transaction itself; In the medium and long term, we still need to return to the fundamentals of the industry and the company. We think there will be differentiation between and within the industry.
Yang Jianhua: the sharp decline in the market at the beginning of the year is mainly affected by two factors: first, the market has some concerns about the implementation of this year's economic growth and steady growth policies. The strength and range of the monetary policies that have been issued have not met the market expectations, and the market is greatly disappointed. We think this concern is reasonable; Second, there have been new changes in the market this year. It is expected that the interest rate will continue to rise in the US market in March. For a shares, although the overall valuation level of the market is not high, the valuation of some sectors is high. Under the expectation of great downward pressure on the economy and limited performance growth of listed companies this year, it is very difficult to continue to raise the valuation.
Qian Ruinan: at present, the adjustment range of track stocks has been large. We expect that the sharp decline may be coming to an end. However, considering the lack of incremental funds, the recovery of relevant sectors may still take some time. In addition, with the pressure on the industry fundamentals, the investment in relevant sectors will test the choice of individual stocks in the future.
Xu Lirong: I hold a neutral and slightly positive view on this year's macro-economy. China's exports remain strong and resilient. There are many spaces and tools for macro policies, and the probability will continue to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate this year. In terms of the stock market, from the profitability of the enterprises we pay attention to and invest in, the profitability of many enterprises in the next 1 ~ 2 years is expected to be relatively good, and the valuation is also relatively reasonable or even low. Therefore, we generally hold a positive view of the stock market this year. However, this year's index yield is expected to be reduced to a certain extent, because growth stocks performed well last year and the stock activity is also very high. The yield of various indexes may be narrowed this year.
The investment value of leading varieties gradually appears
China Fund News: after the Spring Festival, the "Ning nationality" and "Mao nationality" collectively fell. At this stage, how to treat the investment value of leading varieties?
Shi Bo: at the current time point, on the one hand, after the decline in 2021, the valuation of leading companies has generally fallen back to the level of neutral or even low neutral; On the other hand, the macro environment restricting the market of large cap stocks has ended. The macro orientation of steady growth in 2022 means that the credit cycle is loose as a whole. At present, the investment value of leading varieties has gradually become prominent.
Zhou Weiwen: for investors, if the leading companies can eliminate the false and retain the true, it still has long-term investment value. At the same time, the overall competitive strength of leading companies is often stronger than the average level of their industry, and the income and profit growth space will be better than the average level of their industry. It is also a good target among all a shares. Therefore, the investment value of leading varieties is even better than the overall investment value of the track.
Yang Jianhua: the market adjustment from the beginning of the year to the present is a good phenomenon. The valuation of a considerable number of stocks has gradually fallen back to a reasonable area. In the process of market decline, risks have been gradually released. From the current time point, the market has entered the value investment area, and the time for individual stock selection has come. We need to pay special attention to the cost performance of valuation and the performance growth of listed companies.
Chen Jun: for the funds focusing on fundamentals, these leading stocks may be gradually entering the investable area, but the absolute return and quantitative funds may still have the pressure to sell. From the perspective of a year or more, these leading varieties are expected to have investment value.
Cheng Zhou: some high-quality leading enterprises of "ningzu" and "Maozu" have good investment value after this wave of adjustment.
Zou Wei: different industries and different companies in the same industry should be looked at separately. New energy is the representative of high growth. This year, the market is facing doubts about the valuation; Baijiu is a representative of healthy growth. This year, the market is worried about the performance. At present, we believe that leading companies in high boom industries have very good medium and long-term investment value.
Qian Ruinan: the constituent stocks of "Mao index" and "Ning portfolio" are the best enterprises in the A-share market or China. From the perspective of China's economic development and industry changes in the future, we believe that these enterprises are still high-quality investment varieties that can represent China's economy and A-share market in the medium and long term.
in 2022, A-Shares showed a volatile structure
relatively positive in the first half of the year
China Fund News: how will the market go in the first half of 2022? What are the core factors affecting the market?
Shi Bo: the view of the whole year of 2022 is that the pattern of shocks is relatively positive in the first half of the year. First, the central economic work conference set a very prominent tone for steady growth. With the economic activities gradually booming after the festival, it is expected that a series of macro support policies will be introduced one after another to support the market trend. After long-term adjustment, the valuation of the second sector has been at a low level, and the overall valuation of the second sector has been at a low level in 2021. Third, the market performance has been poor since this year. At present, the market sentiment is also at a low level, and it is difficult to issue funds. These are the characteristics of the bottom of the short-term market.
We judge that overseas policies and capital flows will not pose systemic risks to a shares, because China's economy is large enough and its monetary policy is dominated by China. However, if the Fed tightens more than expected, or the US stock market tends to fall, A-Shares may be affected emotionally.
Zhou Yuwen: after adjusting the market, we are not pessimistic about the future. The main reasons are: first, the adjustment of the track target has basically been completed, and the bubble has been very small. Second, the past two to three years have also been a structural bull market, and there are many stocks with investment value; Third, although the world is facing liquidity tightening, the previous policies of the Central Bank of China are more forward-looking, and there is room for loose monetary policy, which is relatively favorable.
Chen Jun: under the expectation of rapid interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the A-share market may continue to fluctuate in the first half of 2022. In investment, the callback market is both a challenge and an opportunity. It is important to find the future investment direction in the shock and fall.
Xu Lirong: the main driving force for the rise of A-Shares this year may come from the mean return. The small and medium-sized index that performed well last year may be slightly worse this year, while the low valuation broad-based index represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is expected to perform relatively well this year.
In terms of liquidity, the main driving force came from China last year. This year, it may be more biased towards foreign capital. Foreign capital may accelerate the inflow to a certain extent, and the capital will be transferred to high-quality companies with good fundamentals.
Cheng Zhou: in the year of the tiger, we think we can be optimistic and positive. The A-share market in the first half of 2022 is still worth looking forward to. In history, the central economic work conference mentioned "taking economic construction as the center" only five times. The most recent three times were in 2005, 2014 and the end of 2018. After that, the stock market had a good market.
The first half of 2022 and even the whole year may still be a market dominated by structure. The overall index space of the market will not be too large, and the structural opportunities are very worth exploring. The core factors affecting the market are mainly macroeconomic policies, especially the strength and force point of the steady growth policy, which will lead investors to find structural opportunities.
Zou Wei: China's liquidity has improved compared with 2021, and China's economic fundamentals are healthier and more potential compared with the world. These two conditions will keep the market in a state of capital inflow as a whole. Therefore, throughout the year, it is less likely that the Chinese market will continue to shrink at the valuation end, and the performance growth rate will still become the strongest clue of the market.
Zou Xi: the market is facing two key problems. First, since December last year, the government has made clear the direction of steady growth and corresponding policies and measures, but at present, the market lacks confidence in steady growth; Second, the market had insufficient expectations of tightening liquidity in the United States, which was also the main factor inducing the market decline during this period.
The two factors are intertwined, and there has been a relatively large adjustment in the market. Previously, we had expectations for the tightening of the Federal Reserve and believed that it might have an impact on A-Shares in 2022. However, after the impact, or when China's steady growth and wide credit take effect, the A-share market may break away from the influence of overseas markets and continue to get out of the slow bull market.
Yang Jianhua: Although the market has doubts about the strength of steady growth measures, we are still confident. This year, whether in terms of monetary policy or fiscal policy, there is room and ability to operate. Overall, the macro environment will be relatively loose this year.
Qian Ruinan: the decline of the market at the beginning of the year has led to more pessimistic expectations of current investors. At present, the market lacks incremental funds, and the actual implementation of the steady growth policy still needs to be observed. Therefore, after the obvious adjustment at the beginning of the year, it still takes some time for the market to stabilize and build the bottom. We expect that the policy will be gradually strengthened this year. After seeing the effectiveness of steady growth measures in infrastructure and other fields, the market expectation is expected to improve significantly, and the market will gradually come out of the bottom.
optimistic about high-end manufacturing, military industry and new energy
and dilemma reversal industry
China Fund News: what are the main investment strategies in the first half of the year? Which sectors and segments are optimistic about investment opportunities?
Shi Bo: the structural differentiation of the market in 2021 is very extreme, with value stocks significantly underperforming growth stocks and large cap stocks significantly underperforming small cap stocks. Judging from the macro environment and the degree of market differentiation, the market structure will converge in 2022. Therefore, the main investment strategy in the first half of the year is to balance the structure, especially the allocation of some value stocks with high cost performance and the allocation of track stocks with high overvalued value. The field of additional allocation is mainly infrastructure building materials and cyclical chemicals with high relevance to steady growth, which are allocated by selecting some leading companies with long-term competitiveness. But at the same time, I would like to emphasize that I am still optimistic about the long-term view of subdivided growth tracks, such as medicine, new energy and consumption. I will use the recent market adjustment to select high-quality targets for layout.
To sum up, in the first half of the year, we will follow the policy expectation of steady growth to make certain allocation. At the same time, we will make some medium and long-term layout by taking advantage of the opportunity of growth stock adjustment.
Zhou Weiwen: we will look for two types of investment opportunities along the main line of "alpha for good industries and beta for industries with reversed difficulties": first, industries with continued good prosperity in the coming years, such as new energy, photovoltaic and military industry. Most of these industries have expensive valuations, but the fundamentals of subdivided sectors will be divided, We will select the segments with positive changes in Fundamentals for configuration; The second is the dilemma reversal industries. The stock prices of these industries are low and the short-term operation is uncertain. However, from the perspective of about two years, the operation probability will return to normal, even better than the boom years in history. The representative industries include breeding, catering, tourism, media, real estate, etc. according to the future profit growth rate of relevant industries Dynamically adjust the proportion of sector allocation according to the valuation.
Yang Jianhua: closely observe the market dynamics, pay attention to the performance growth range and valuation cost performance of high-quality listed companies, adopt the steady position increase strategy of selecting individual stocks and buying more and more down, and actively capture the investment opportunities brought by the market correction. We are optimistic about the three main lines. First, the consumption upgrading with constant logic, which is the sector we have always been optimistic about; Second, some midstream manufacturing industries affected by the epidemic and cost pressure and suppressed their performance last year, including consumer services and consumer goods manufacturing; Third, the high-end equipment manufacturing sector represented by new energy and military industry is also worthy of long-term optimism. However, it needs to be closely observed which links have strong competitive advantages and can be maintained for a long time.
Chen Jun: facing the decline of the market, we will actively adjust the structure in the first half of the year to adapt to market changes. We will focus on companies with huge long-term growth space, good competition pattern and high-quality corporate governance. In terms of investment opportunities, we are optimistic about smart driving, high-end equipment manufacturing, some links of photovoltaic wind power, military industry and other subdivided industries.
Zou Wei: there are two main points in the market: one is performance and the other is valuation. The core is performance. The industry with dominant performance growth will still be the most important direction for the market to generate revenue in 2022.
At present, in the direction of high prosperity, there are still many opportunities for new energy and military industry; The consumption direction and the opportunity of mandatory consumption also need to be paid attention to. This year's price increase transmission, inventory replenishment and the recovery of mass consumption after the lifting of the ban on the epidemic will bring performance flexibility to mandatory consumption. On the whole, we need to pay attention to two types of opportunities: one is industries and individual stocks with high performance growth, and there is no risk of killing valuation at the valuation level; Second, the valuation has returned to the historically low position or reasonable position, and can achieve medium and long-term bottom recovery at the performance level.
Qian Ruinan: the overall economy was under pressure in the first half of the year. At present, there is still some uncertainty in the macro. From the perspective of industry comparison, balanced allocation is a relatively stable investment idea at present. At the beginning of the year, we observed a sharp decline in the consumption, medicine and growth sectors with concentrated institutional positions, while the undervalued steady growth sector with a low proportion of institutional allocation performed relatively well. In addition to fundamental factors, we believe that we need to pay attention to the possibility of institutional position concentration returning to equilibrium.
In the short term, the investment portfolio needs to be moderately balanced and pay attention to the opportunities brought by stable growth. The focus of medium and long-term attention is still focused on the main fields such as green development, advanced manufacturing, science and technology and digital economy. In addition, after the early adjustment of medicine and consumption, the risks are gradually released, the valuation of some subdivided industries gradually tends to be reasonable, and there are opportunities for repair and improvement.
Cheng Zhou: in the first half of the year, our investment strategy is to insist on high quality and good price, insist on buying good companies at good prices, focus on the certainty of profit growth, emphasize the safety margin of pricing, and be optimistic about strategic emerging industries, large consumption sector, cycle sector, agriculture sector, TMT, etc.
Zou Xi: benefiting from the steady growth policy, the real estate infrastructure chain will usher in a new opportunity. After the effective confirmation mode of real estate, central enterprises and high-quality private enterprises may become new high-quality leaders. In addition, some banks that effectively distinguish risk pricing have certain excess returns, and securities and wealth management companies also have structural alpha.
the market of the "two sessions" is expected
focus on steady growth policy
China Fund News: the "two sessions" are imminent. How do you expect the market of the "two sessions" this year?
Shi Bo: at present, the macro economy is at the bottom, the policy expectation is positive, the market valuation is neutral and low, and the market sentiment is very low. Under this combination, we are optimistic about the market trend in the later stage, so we are optimistic about the market of the "two sessions".
Chen Jun: in the context of downward economic growth, the "two sessions" market may still focus on the steady growth policy.
Cheng Zhou: we are relatively optimistic about the market of this year's "two sessions". In short, the market in spring will only be late and will not be absent.
Qian Ruinan: with the continuous expansion of the scale of the stock market, the continuous improvement of policy stability and continuity, and the maturity of investors, on the whole, the market of the "two sessions" has gradually stabilized. Considering the macro situation and external environment faced this year, combined with the strong mention of steady growth in the previous central economic work conference, it is expected that corresponding monetary, fiscal and industrial policies will be issued before and after the "two sessions", and the focus will still be on the new and old infrastructure, green development, scientific and technological innovation and digital economy, The stock market will also produce corresponding structural opportunities.
