Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the market blue chip market has started, and the market pays attention to four focus issues
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that blue chip is the main style throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the blue chip market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched. At present, the market pays attention to four key issues.
Focus 1: what is the sustainability of the main line of steady growth? We believe that the steady growth policy, infrastructure first, followed by real estate, and after the joint efforts of a number of policies, China’s GDP will return to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly market of the main line of steady growth. focus 2: when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? we believe that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; The growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair after the three conditions are complete. focus 3: what is the impact of global monetary tightening on a shares? we believe that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited. focus 4: how to grasp market opportunities at the current time point? we suggest that we stick to the blue chip style throughout the year. At present, we should stick to the main line of value blue chip catalyzed by stable growth policy and continue to focus on the active layout of “two low positions”.
Continue to firmly focus on the positive layout of “two low positions”. As the policy relay forms a joint force and the market consensus is gradually strengthened, the main line of “steady growth” is expected to last at least one quarter. It is suggested to continue to follow the main line of “steady growth” and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “Two Lows”, specifically including varieties whose valuation is still relatively low. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, and the Internet leader of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks, And fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; For the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focus on the midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., and the airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the market will gradually recover in March and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that under the current stable growth, the infrastructure strength or local debt problem and the recovery of real estate, as the core leading of the wide credit slope in the future, will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the social finance data in January, the total amount exceeds the expectation, which has shown a positive signal, and the wide credit is on the way. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated, and the infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually repaired. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year. At present, there are two new ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, under the warming expectation of steady growth, the allocation value of consumption, infrastructure and other undervalued directions has increased.
Industry configuration: 1) consumption: live pigs, household appliances, furniture and social service, tourism and Baijiu; 2) Capital construction: building materials, construction and power operation; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the A-share policy is strengthened, and the main line is “steady growth”
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite may take time under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector. We judge that when China’s growth expectation is gradually stabilized and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress.
on the whole, we don’t think we need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, there have been more than expected credit and social financing increments under the background of relatively low market and low expectations. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious, The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but we may not be in a hurry to bottom.
Suggestions on industry configuration: the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) the marginal change of policy or the potential supporting fields, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc; 3) Under the background of positive progress of the epidemic, aviation airports, catering tourism, offline entertainment and other sectors may receive phased attention; 4) The manufacturing growth sectors with a large increase last year, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been adjusted, but it may not be the time to fully intervene.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : under the shock of the market, the steady growth spring market will not be absent
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that in the past 21 years, the rise and fall of the industries with major rights in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have been out of sync, with each passing, so the index fluctuated. Under the background of the era of equity investment, allocated funds will enter the market. It is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will be balanced in 22 years to support the shock market. The steady growth spring market will not be absent. In terms of structure, value first and then growth, such as undervalued financial real estate, new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) it has been analyzed that this year may be two logics of shaking the market. First, compared with history, the policy of the three typical bear markets in 2008, 11 and 18 began to tighten significantly, while the current policy is still loose. Second, the market valuation of the typical bear market was at a high level before the stock market fell, and the current market valuation contradiction is not prominent. We believe that there is still a spring Market in the volatile market. The specific reasons are as follows: first, the policy effect of steady growth is gradually emerging. According to the latest social finance data, the increment of social finance in January reached 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, of which loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion, which is a monthly statistical high, which verifies that the policy is being implemented. Second, after reviewing the history, it is found that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there is little disclosure of fundamental data of A-Shares from November to March, and the capital interest rate usually drops at the beginning of the year, and the risk appetite of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : maintain the judgment of “√” of the trend of A-Shares throughout the year
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the growth rate of new social finance in January became positive and will gradually enter the upward cycle, which is conducive to improving investors’ pessimistic expectations of profits, which is one of the important conditions for the previous bottoms of a shares.
As 2022 is a stable growth year, the growth rate of new social finance is expected to continue to rise, forming a positive support for a shares. After the Fed’s interest rate hike and other external factors affecting risk appetite are gradually implemented, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward cycle. The judgment of “√” of A-share trend throughout the year, “undervalued +” and “depression strategy” are still the dominant allocation strategy at present. From February to March, we can focus on the opportunities of industrial metals, petroleum and petrochemical, cement and so on, which benefit from the force of steady growth and the continuous rise of bulk prices.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : “steady growth” is far from the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that “steady growth” is far from the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform. Structurally, “dumbbell” configuration: on the one hand, the direction of China’s policy relaxation is determined, and “mini version 2014” is on the way, focusing on “big finance” benefiting from “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”; On the other hand, the layout, excavation and adjustment are deep, the pressure of congestion is fully released, and the prosperity is still good. 1) “Big finance”: we judge that there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to “mini version 2014” this year, including large financial sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies. As a top-down logical support and a “place with few people”, the repair of undervalued sectors will continue. 2) “Small high tech”: after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
Investment strategy: grasp the repair of undervalued financial and real estate, and bargain hunting layout of “small high-tech”. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : repeated bottom grinding period, which is in the strategic layout stage in the medium and long term
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that it is currently in the stage of repeated bottom grinding and in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term. The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share overvalued boom track is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested. For a longer period of time, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment and short-term violent venting, the risk has been fully released; Second, the long-term sound and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the follow-up steady growth policy is expected to gradually strengthen; Third, from the forecast of annual reports of listed companies, there are many structural highlights in the profits of A-share enterprises. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of “stable growth” in policies, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicle), digital economy, seed industry”, etc.
Guosheng Securities: the market continues in the lunar year, and the rise of value is still on the way
Guosheng Securities believes that since 2022, the landing effect of financial advance and infrastructure development has appeared. In January, the investment in major projects in 20 provinces and cities increased by 68% year-on-year, and the real estate regulatory policy has been further loosened. The credit derived blockage is gradually getting through. After the wide credit in the sense of total amount is confirmed, the monetary and credit environment will continue to improve in the first quarter. With the digestion of growth stock valuation, the improvement of credit conditions and the transmission of macro liquidity to the capital market, the short-term market is expected to usher in a resonant rebound. From the medium-term perspective, one thing to be reminded is that under the background of the slowdown of public offering + private placement and the reversal of the incremental market environment, it is not appropriate to use the experience of the past 2-3 years to understand the future market. It is suggested to increase the mining of low positions and relatively undervalued sectors. The rise of medium-term value is still on the way.
Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations: the market in the lunar new year continues to advance, the short-term or resonance rebound is welcome, and the rise of medium-term value is still on the way. （1） The widening trend of credit conditions has been confirmed, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. Continue to recommend high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials; （2） Market risk appetite is expected to hit the bottom and pick up. In the short term, it is recommended that the computer driven by the concept of communication and digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development; （3） Home appliances with reversed upstream costs and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : there may still be for the sector with both undervalued value and high prosperity
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the rotation and style switching of the A-share market sector are more obvious, the overvalued growth sector has entered the adjustment stage, and the theme of “steady growth” boost, undervalued repair and digital economy have become new capital hotspots. We believe that there is still room for undervalued sectors with high prosperity, and we suggest focusing on them. First of all, under the background of great uncertainty overseas and the great downward pressure on China’s economy as a whole, the allocation cost performance of some overvalued growth track stocks is still low, which is easy to “resonate” in the process of overseas asset price revaluation, generate large selling pressure in the short term, and then fluctuate greatly. Secondly, the “steady growth” this time puts more emphasis on structural adjustment, and the upward space of traditional cycle industries is relatively limited. Finally, on the whole, the undervalued sector is more likely to usher in rising opportunities in the market style adjustment. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with “expected repair” potential, the sectors with defensive nature through the cycle and the sectors that are expected to have trend opportunities under the boost of the high boom.
In terms of industry, (1) pay attention to the national defense and military industry sector. The national defense and military industry sector has both the valuation advantages and high prosperity level mentioned above. At present, it has a better configuration and cost performance. Generally speaking, the military industry sector has the ability to cross the cycle. In the first quarter, it is still expected to be active again after the continuous correction in the early stage and repair the valuation. It is suggested to focus on the core components, new information equipment, new materials and other related subjects. (2) Focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Based on the cyclical fluctuation of the sector and the advantage of undervaluation, the livestock and poultry breeding sector may gradually enter the upward profit cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal change of production capacity and intervene in time. (3) Focus on the home appliance sector. The implementation of macro policy easing and domestic demand expansion policies is expected to boost the durable goods consumption sector. At present, some sub sectors of the home appliance sector have the space and potential to repair the valuation. It is suggested to focus on channel innovation and concept guidance to explore high-quality targets.
In the medium and long term, we suggest investors continue to focus on three directions. Consumption sector: medicine and consumption upgrading. Long term high-quality track: carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. Stable bottom position variety: big finance.
The main line of the market is still undervalued in spring {123917}
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that on the whole, under the environment that the global financial market gradually adapts to the hawkish shift of the Federal Reserve, the steady growth policies such as China’s RRR reduction continue to work, and social finance and other indicators are expected to stabilize, the market is expected to go further in spring. The overall registration system and steady growth are good for undervalued blue chips, while the Fed’s “hawks” may put pressure on the growth sector, and the strength and non record low of undervalued blue chips such as SSE 50 in the process of adjustment in January make us believe that the spring market is still the main line of undervalued blue chips.
In terms of specific configuration, undervalued blue chips still adhere to three main lines: 1) securities companies; 2) Central enterprises with high dividends related to national reform, especially the development direction of central finance such as railway and electric power; 3) Green electricity. At the same time, some drugs related to the epidemic, such as ventilator and vaccine, have also entered the allocation range.
