Today (February 14), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. After the stock index fluctuated at the beginning of the session, it fell sharply downward and maintained a low level. The shock was repeated, while the gem index rose rapidly, once turned red in the session, and followed the stock index to weaken near noon.
From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect is still in existence. In terms of tourism sector, Xi’An Tourism Co.Ltd(000610) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) , Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) and other limits rose, while Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) and other increases were higher; In terms of culture and media sector, Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) soared the 20cm limit, Zhewen Pictures Group Co.Ltd(601599) , Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Co.Ltd(600576) , Guangdong Advertising Group Co.Ltd(002400) , Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) , Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) and so on.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that it is currently in the stage of repeated bottom grinding and in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term. The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share overvalued boom track is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] tourist hotel
Dongguan Securities said that the proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market was further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic was gradually reduced. Guided by the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) with stable performance, and artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with large performance flexibility. They are expected to benefit from Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) of the Winter Olympic effect in the short term.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that judging from the repeated regional epidemics in China, it is suggested to grasp the phased market. China’s long-term trend will continue to be firm in clearing cases, strictly preventing overseas imports, accelerating vaccination and research and development of multiple vaccines, and realizing mass immunization as soon as possible. During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Zhangjiakou, Beijing. The government continued to take strict covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the restrictions on international flights were extended to at least the first half of this year. China’s tourism industry continued to circulate internally, and the flow of outbound tourists continued to be transformed into Chinese tourism. China’s tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the recovery process is repeatedly disturbed with the possible local epidemic. During this period, with theme investment and hot investment hotspots, the fundamentals of Companies in the industry showed continuous repair. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that the tourism market recovered weakly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the overall consumer expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%. []
[Theme 2] cultural media
Bing dwen dwen pointed out that the “ice pier pier” is hot to verify the value of sports IP and is concerned about the driving effect of the Winter Olympic Games on the IP industry chain. After Bing dwen dwen Bing dwen dwen, the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , “the” ice block pier “,” the Beijing Olympic Games “will be further expanded to the Winter Olympic Games. The icy pier will also be successful in the Olympic Games, and the ICU pier will be a phenomenal IP based on its favorite image, proving the commercial potential of the sports IP in the Olympic Games. The IP is also a” hot spot “.
Bing dwen dwen is a supplier of Bing dwen dwen, Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) ‘s performance or fully benefit from the continued selling of ice pier. Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) through strategic investment, card hobby lays out the star card issuance and trading business, or benefits from the star IP effect to open up new growth space. There will also be local competitions such as the Hangzhou Asian Games in 2022, which may further drive the sports IP industry chain and the sales of sports shoes, clothing and equipment. We suggest to continue to lay out the industrial chain of the Winter Olympics and actively pay attention to the driving effect of the Winter Olympics on the sports IP industrial chain. Highlight Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) , Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) , and benefit targets include Cultural Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600715) , Sumavision Technologies Co.Ltd(300079) , Shuhua Sports Co.Ltd(605299) , Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) .
In addition, Caixin securities mentioned that it is suggested to grasp the following main investment lines in the follow-up: 1) in the game sector, the valuation is at a historical low, the new products are launched to provide short-term performance support, the long-term trend of going to sea is established, the follow-up attention is paid to the restart rhythm of the version number, and Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) are recommended. 2) In the film and television sector, with the advent of the Spring Festival and the increase of public viewing demand, we focus on the leading cinemas with steadily increasing market share and the high-quality content supply companies that reserve films. We recommend Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) . In the field of video, the rectification of culture and entertainment has basically come to an end. State owned enterprises have more advantages in carrying forward traditional culture and grasping the main line of content creation. They pay attention to the high-quality and scarce A-share Internet video platform and recommend Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) . 3) the hot-selling mascots of the Winter Olympic Games are in short supply, which is expected to help the performance growth of relevant licensed production and retailers in 2022, focusing on Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) .
Bing dwen dwen said Bing dwen dwen Bing dwen dwen Bing dwen dwen, the new winter special mascot, is now on sale, with the price of 180 yuan for the new 20cm special edition of the ice pier pier, the price of ice pier pier plush toy (20cm) at 192 yuan, and the ice pier pier swing for sale. China Central Radio has added “CCTV news sign language AI anchor” to broadcast the event news. Under the development trend of meta universe, the application of new technologies in the Winter Olympics deserves attention. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines in the field of media and Internet. []
[Topic 3] biomedicine
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that with the approval of Pfizer specific drugs, the normalization of the epidemic situation in China will become a trend.
Paxlovid’s emergency approval in China shows the feasibility of national recognition of oral small molecule drugs for covid-19, and provides a drug treatment solution for covid-19 epidemic in China. Paxlovid’s clinical data show that its efficacy is superior. Starting paxlovid treatment within 5 days after the onset of symptoms (twice a day for 5 consecutive days) can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. We believe that the approval of paxlovid marks the normalization of the epidemic in China, and “vaccine + specific drug” is expected to finally defeat covid-19.
In the long run, China’s prevention and control policies are expected to be relaxed. At present, overseas countries have maintained an open attitude towards the epidemic. Considering that the main active component of paxlovid has the same antiviral effect on mutant strains in vitro and has curative effect on Omicron and other mutant strains, paxlovid can be taken orally as a small molecule drug, and the treatment method is convenient and controllable. We believe that China’s prevention and control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed under the premise of order, and opening the door to the country will be the trend in the long run.
The agency further analyzed that the localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes of related industries are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, covid-19 specific drugs have huge market prospects in China. Paxlovid has been approved or authorized for emergency use in more than 10 countries around the world, and the production capacity can not meet all the markets. Moreover, covid-19 drugs are of strategic importance. It is worth looking forward to the localization of covid-19 specific drugs, and the small molecule pipeline under research is expected to accelerate its listing through emergency approval; Chinese enterprises with R & D capability and API integration will benefit. The approval of oral covid-19 specific drugs is expected to accelerate the R & D of small molecule specific drugs in China. On the other hand, Pfizer’s paxlovid needs a large number of APIs such as carbonic anhydride, which is good for Chinese api companies, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) . Some Chinese cdmo enterprises have obtained relevant production orders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . It is expected that with the further expansion of production capacity, relevant cdmo enterprises are still expected to benefit.
In addition, AVIC securities mentioned that with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, we believe that the focus of market repair may continue to focus on sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, we need to layout in advance, especially pay attention to the sustainability of marginal improvement and growth. From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation. []
[theme 4] national defense and military industry
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the military industry sector is expected to stabilize gradually, and it is suggested to actively layout bargain hunting. In the short term, after a sharp correction in the early stage, the risk of performance falling short of expectations has been fully released. At present, the valuation of the military industry sector has dropped to 53.4x, with a high margin of safety, which is expected to stabilize gradually in the later stage; In the medium term, as the second year of the 14th five year plan for equipment procurement, 2022 is expected to intensively implement bidding, eliminate the superimposed capacity bottleneck, and help the prosperity of the industry continue to improve. The rapid growth of the industry in the next three years is still expected; In the long run, the “Centennial goal of building the army” is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” is bound to promote the rapid development of the industry.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that the deterministic growth of national defense is high. In 2022, it will enter the two wheel drive of “business cycle + asset integration”, “endogenous + extension”, “domestic demand + foreign trade” and “military products + civilian products”. The military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first: (1) under the “century change”, the deterministic growth of national defense industry is high, “Preparing for war / 2027 / building a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy” is the established direction. Large contract liabilities in 2021 highlight the high boom of the 14th five year plan. (2) In the next few years, the securitization of national defense and military assets and the reorganization and listing of core military products are expected to set off a new round of climax. We will pay attention to the reorganization process of China Shipbuilding Group / Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) / CETC / AVIC / Aerospace Science and industry / ordnance industry and other groups. (3) China’s tanks / UAVs / trainers / fighters are globally competitive, and the demand for foreign trade is gradually rising. Domestic large aircraft / civil aviation engine and other industrial chains are also gradually growing.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that since the beginning of the year, the military industry sector has been under pressure due to the impact of market liquidity and preferences. We judge that the fundamentals of the industry have not been affected. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the following four highlights of military industry 2022. (1) The growth rate in 2022 has strong comparative advantages; As 2022 is the first year of release of the overall new capacity of the industry, the growth rate of the revenue side will accelerate, so the second-order derivative is positive, and some sectors can have a longer growth expansion period, which has the strategic comparative advantage of the industry. (2) New models are intensively entering the pre production stage of batch production, and enterprises in all links of the industrial chain have the possibility of performance exceeding expectations and the extension of the duration of medium and high-speed growth; (3) The military industry is a kind of crossing varieties in the economic cycle, which has the advantage of fundamental anti risk; (4) The reform of China’s state-owned assets may enter the deep-water area. It is expected to carry out market-oriented mechanism reform in fields other than the general assembly of non strategic weapons (excluding state-owned enterprises of strategic resources). []
