Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : four highlights of military industry in 2022! Exposure of related stock targets of four types of attributes
Since the beginning of the year, the military industry sector has been under pressure due to the impact of market liquidity and preferences. We judge that the industry fundamentals have not been affected. We suggest to continue to pay attention to the following four highlights of military industry 2022. (1) The growth rate in 2022 has strong comparative advantages; As 2022 is the first year of release of the overall new capacity of the industry, the growth rate of the revenue side will accelerate, so the second-order derivative is positive, and some sectors can have a longer growth expansion period, which has the strategic comparative advantage of the industry. (2) New models are intensively entering the pre production stage of batch production, and enterprises in all links of the industrial chain have the possibility of performance exceeding expectations and the extension of the duration of medium and high-speed growth; (3) The military industry is a kind of crossing varieties in the economic cycle, which has the advantage of fundamental anti risk; (4) The reform of China's state-owned assets may enter the deep-water area. It is expected to carry out market-oriented mechanism reform in fields other than the general assembly of non strategic weapons (excluding state-owned enterprises of strategic resources).
It is suggested to pay attention to relevant stock targets with the following four types of attributes: (1) aeroengine industry chain with high sustainability and high vision: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ; (2) Relevant stocks with the second growth curve: Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) ; (3) Military electronics and missile information enterprises with high flexibility: Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , capacitors; (4) OEM enterprises with high beta attribute: Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Shenfei, Hongdu, Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , etc. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : the current military industry valuation level has a large margin of safety! Focus on five investment directions
In the process of rapid adjustment of the military industry, some high-quality stocks were killed by mistake. The current valuation level of the sector has fallen back to the bottom area since May 2020, with a large margin of safety and absolute income space: observed by the national defense and military industry CITIC index, since the launch of the military industry market in July 2020, the overall dynamic valuation of the sector is about 60 times as low as may 2020, nearly 100 times as high as January 2021, and about 65 times at present, It has fallen back to the bottom area since May 2020. From the dynamic valuation of representative targets in the sector, the dynamic valuation of multiple targets fell back to the bottom area since May 2020. We believe that the current valuation level has a large margin of safety and absolute income space.
We suggest paying more attention to the market pattern, business quality and medium and long-term growth space of the military industry, focusing on the five investment directions. 1) Military aircraft: air control is very important in modern war. Many models enter the batch production period, focusing on Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , etc; 2) Aeroengine: Changpo thick snow high-quality track, pay attention to Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) etc; 3) Materials and forging and casting: a generation of materials and equipment. Forging and casting is the key link of equipment production. Pay attention to Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Xi'An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Anhui Shenjian New Materials Co.Ltd(002361) etc; 4) Missiles: with the continuous improvement of combat readiness and the increase of war training consumption and replenishment demand, we pay attention to Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) , North Navigation Control Technology Co.Ltd(600435) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) ; 5) Informatization: informatization is a multiplier of combat power. All countries have invested heavily in Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) , Beijing Starneto Technology Co.Ltd(002829) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) and so on. []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022
High certainty growth of national defense. In 2022, it entered the two wheel drive of "business cycle + asset integration", "endogenous + extension", "domestic demand + foreign trade" and "military products + civilian products". The military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first: (1) under the "century change", the certainty growth of national defense industry is high, "Preparing for war / 2027 / building a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy" is the established direction. Large contract liabilities in 2021 highlight the high boom of the 14th five year plan. (2) In the next few years, the securitization of national defense and military assets and the reorganization and listing of core military products are expected to set off a new round of climax. We will pay attention to the reorganization process of China Shipbuilding Group / Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) / CETC / AVIC / Aerospace Science and industry / ordnance industry and other groups. (3) China's tanks / UAVs / trainers / fighters are globally competitive, and the demand for foreign trade is gradually rising. Domestic large aircraft / civil aviation engine and other industrial chains are also gradually growing.
In terms of specific targets, first, national defense and military industry: scale effect + fine management, "small core and large cooperation", and the performance flexibility of the main engine plant in the next five years; The "three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform" is over, and equity incentive is expected to boost the release of performance: Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) .
Second, continue to be optimistic about high-tech barriers, high scarcity and good competition pattern of superalloys / composites / midstream component level supporting enterprises / engine forging and casting / information core midstream and other midstream and upstream sub circuits: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Xi'An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Xi'An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) 。
Third, missiles and informatization: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) . []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of the military industry sector. It is suggested to configure in "four dimensions"
The military industry sector is expected to stabilize gradually, and it is suggested to actively layout bargain hunting.
In the short term, after a sharp correction in the early stage, the risk of performance falling short of expectations has been fully released. At present, the valuation of the military industry sector has dropped to 53.4x, with a high margin of safety, which is expected to stabilize gradually in the later stage; In the medium term, as the second year of the 14th five year plan for equipment procurement, 2022 is expected to intensively implement bidding, eliminate the superimposed capacity bottleneck, and help the prosperity of the industry continue to improve. The rapid growth of the industry in the next three years is still expected; In the long run, the "Centennial goal of building the army" is nearly late, and the "Centennial change" is bound to promote the rapid development of the industry.
We are optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of the military industry sector and suggest the "four dimensions" configuration: 1) the targets of oversold rebound include Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) (603678. SH), Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) (300447. SZ) and Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) (002446. SZ); 2) The subjects with sufficient adjustment but both performance growth and valuation include Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) (002985. SZ), Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) (603712. SH), Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) (002013. SZ); 3) Targets with higher than expected performance and high certainty growth include China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) (000733. SZ), Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049. SZ); 4) The expected targets of state-owned enterprise reform include Addsino Co.Ltd(000547) (000547. SZ), China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) (600764. SH), etc.
Dongguan Securities: optimistic about the high prosperity of the military industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period
In the short term, the global interest rate increase cycle may have an impact on companies with high valuation. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some military industrial groups is lower than expected, the industry may have great volatility in the short term, but the short-term volatility will not affect the high prosperity of the industry during the whole "14th five year plan" period. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated. The United States and its allies are showing signs of shifting their strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. The emergence of the US Navy in the South China Sea has become a norm. The number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation.
Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased. We are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables. On the other hand, Wu Yanhua, deputy director of the National Space Administration, said at the white paper press conference of China's aerospace in 2021 that in the next five years, we should accelerate the transfer and transformation of aerospace technology achievements to economy and society, and be optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under Aerospace industry services and the Internet of things, as well as the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform. Suggestions on the subject: Xi'An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) (300775), Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049), China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) (000733), Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) (688122), Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) (300034), etc. []
Capital Securities: grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth
The boom expansion of the industrial chain is conducted orderly and optimistic about the allocation value of individual stocks: the military industry sector has a sharp correction due to the impact of performance fluctuations and market sentiment in the short term, and the logic of long-term boom expansion remains unchanged. The verification of advances received by downstream enterprises and the landing of large orders will be conducted in an orderly manner to the upstream and midstream along the industrial chain. During the "14th five year plan" period, the demand of supporting enterprises is large-scale and uncertain, and the performance of private leaders will be more flexible.
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) . 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) . []
AVIC Securities: military industry has become the standard, mandatory and even over matched variety in the market
For the military industry market in 2022, in order to provide strong support and reduce the fluctuation, advance two and retreat one. Aviation and aerospace are still the basic industries of the military industry. The bottom of the civilian ship industry has recovered, and the pace of asset securitization of groups such as CETC, ordnance, ordnance and China shipbuilding has accelerated. The military industry as a whole has shown a gratifying situation of full flowering and everywhere results, which has never been seen in history.
As the scope and degree of consensus are becoming wider and stronger, the degree of consensus of the current market on the military industry is at a high level, and has been tested by last year's mid-term report and the third quarterly report. Under the strong consensus expectation, military industry has become the standard, mandatory and even over matched varieties in the market.
We believe that with a high probability, the volatility of the military industry will tend to decrease for a long time in the future, and it is difficult to reproduce the callback range of more than 30% in 2021, which also means that the opportunity of cheap valuation is not easy to reappear. If the market style changes temporarily and the short-term irrational decline occurs, it is a better allocation opportunity. From the perspective of medium and long-term annual dimension, we tend to think that the military industry is more likely to be a benign "advance, two retreat and one" with a bottom decline.
It is suggested to focus on the subdivided fields and individual stocks, and the aviation equipment industry chain such as military aircraft: related targets of fighter, transport aircraft, helicopter, UAV and engine industry chain, Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Aecc Aero Science And Technology Co.Ltd(600391) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) (engine), Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) , China Aerospace Times Electronics Co.Ltd(600879) (UAV), Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) (carbon fiber composite), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) (superalloy), Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) (titanium alloy), Xi'An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) (3D printing), Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Jiangxi Huawu Brake Co.Ltd(300095) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) (aviation manufacturing), etc.
Aerospace equipment (ammunition, satellite, chain, etc.) industry chain: Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) (connector), China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) (Satellite Internet), Chengdu Spaceon Electronics Co.Ltd(002935) , Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) , Chengdu Corpro Technology Co.Ltd(300101) (Beidou), North Navigation Control Technology Co.Ltd(600435) (navigation control and ammunition informatization), Beijing Ctrowell Technology Corporation Limited(300455) (satellite microsystem), Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) (satellite navigation communication).
Informatization + autonomous control: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(688385) (military chip), Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) (infrared guidance), Glarun Technology Co.Ltd(600562) , Sun Create Electronics Co.Ltd(600990) (radar), China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) (high-end capacitor), Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) (embedded computer), China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) (Xinchuang). In addition, the first C919 is expected to be delivered in 2022, which may arouse investment enthusiasm in the field of civil aircraft. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : it is suggested to focus on of high-quality military industrial standards that were wrongly killed due to market sentiment
We believe that China's advanced fighter technology has a high maturity. With the accelerated loading of domestic aviation equipment, the industry will be in the stage of continuous delivery of new production capacity and accelerated release of performance in the next two to three years. The performance forecast of the annual report will be released intensively soon. It is expected that the performance of upstream components and raw material targets that characterize the prosperity of the industry will continue to maintain high growth, and the high prosperity of the sector is expected to be strengthened again. The main focus of this round of military investment is the significant improvement of the industry fundamentals. At present, the prosperity of the industry continues to improve, and the sector has increased its adjustment recently, The focus of high-quality market growth is killed by high-quality suggestions. []
