After the Spring Festival, the prices of cement in many companies rose, and the prosperity is expected to remain until the second quarter.
After the Spring Festival, the prices of clinker in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta rose one after another, and many enterprises have issued price adjustment letters. According to the monitoring of business agency, the cement market in East China has risen recently, with the price of 510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 520 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.96%, and the current price has increased by 3.96% year-on-year.
The weather conditions after the festival are poor. There are more rain and snow in East China, and the resumption of construction sites is slow, but the cement market inventory is low, and the cement market in East China rises tentatively. In addition, from February 11 to 14, a number of enterprises issued price adjustment letters, which raised the clinker price by 30 yuan / ton in eastern Guangdong, and a number of cement enterprises in Chongqing and Yunnan notified to raise the price of various types of cement by 50 yuan / ton.
multiple factors boost cement price
After the Spring Festival, with the commencement of major projects one after another, the goods in the downstream grinding station are very abundant. Under the background of low inventory, the demand for cement is greatly improved. Taking into account the high requirements of environmental protection during the Winter Olympics, cement enterprises are expected to maintain peak staggering production or limited production before the Spring Festival, with limited short-term cement capacity increment and catalytic price rise.
From the price increase letters issued by various enterprises, the rise in coal prices may be an important reason for the recent price increase of cement enterprises in some regions. some enterprises said in the price adjustment notice: “the production cost of the company has increased significantly due to the rise of upstream raw and fuel materials, national dual control of energy consumption, peak shifting production and other factors”, “according to the changes of the current cement market, the price of raw materials has continued to rise, and various factors such as environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction have led to the continuous increase of the company’s cement production and manufacturing cost”.
According to the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in late January 2022 released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 8, the coal price has generally increased. Among them, the average large-scale hybrid (5000 kcal) was 803.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 102 yuan / ton or 14.5% over the previous period. On the futures market, the main contract of thermal coal fluctuated upward from 672 yuan at the end of December 2021, and the highest rose to 898.6 yuan on February 9.
In addition, the credit extension in January this year focused on infrastructure construction, advanced manufacturing, Inclusive Finance and other fields. Since the central economic work conference proposed that “infrastructure investment should be properly advanced”, infrastructure investment projects in many places have started rapidly since this year, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other provinces have announced relevant documents on expanding effective investment and launched major project investment plans of 100 billion or even trillions. Cement has a high probability of benefiting from infrastructure recovery.
Market analysts believe that the cement demand in 2022 is good, and the increment of cement supply during the Winter Olympic Games is limited. It is the peak construction season before the third quarter, it is expected that the cement price and high profit level are expected to be maintained until the second quarter.
concept stocks outperformed the market
According to the statistics of securities times and databao, cement concept stocks have risen by an average of 3.23% this year, outperforming the market. Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) led the increase, with a cumulative increase of 16.43% since this year. The company’s main business is cement grinding and sales.
At present, nine cement concept stocks have issued performance forecasts for 2021, only Jilin Yatai (Group) Co.Ltd(600881) one is expected to lose money, and the rest are profitable.
The net profit is expected to be 1236.7 billion yuan, with the highest expected net profit of 1236.7 billion {357 billion} in 2026. Recently, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) disclosed the report on the issuance of non-public offering shares. The fixed increase has received strong support from cement peers. Among the 16 specific objects participating in the subscription, there are no lack of A-share industry leaders such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) . Among them, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , a total of 74074100 shares have been allocated, with an amount of about 1 billion yuan, accounting for 23.5% of the total fund-raising, Equivalent to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) taking a quarter of the fund-raising.
Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) has the highest performance increase. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 24.07 million yuan to 28.9 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 102% to 122%.
Since the beginning of this year, 11 shares have received cumulative net purchases from northbound funds, with Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ranking the top in net purchases, of which Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) has received cumulative net purchases from northbound funds of 1.366 billion yuan this year, and the company’s share price has risen by 4.94% this year.
