The double impact of flood and epidemic in Zhengzhou in the second half of 2021 has made the money bags of prospective home buyers "more tightly covered". Even during the Spring Festival, when the new housing market used the "killer mace" of reducing down payment, house purchase subsidies and other concessions, the downturn of the real estate market failed to reverse.
According to the statistics of 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the market demand in Zhengzhou during the Spring Festival was relatively sluggish. The demand for new houses decreased by 31% year-on-year and that for second-hand houses decreased by 10% year-on-year.
"There are many fewer people than in previous years. In previous years, there will be a wave of returning home. This year, it is basically returning home without home ownership." Zhengzhou, a real estate sales slightly helpless to the "Huaxia times" reporter said: "a lot of project sales offices are on holiday, our case field is not many people, and there is no holiday." The reporter also learned through the investigation that different from previous years, during the Spring Festival, some real estate and intermediary institutions in Zhengzhou had a rare holiday for the new year, and most of the sales offices in normal business were also deserted.
In fact, the property market has been in a downturn since the "anti flood war" in Zhengzhou in the second half of 2021. In the view of industry experts, the reason for this phenomenon is partly due to the wait-and-see mood of consumers, which will continue for a period of time after the Spring Festival, or will have a certain impact on the "little sunny spring" in previous years.
the prices of some second-hand houses have plummeted
Several rounds of snowfall on the eve of the Spring Festival in 2022 have brought the already tepid Zhengzhou property market into a "quick freeze" period, and the snowflakes falling one after another have also added an obstacle to the "house purchase road" of intended consumers.
Ms. Wang, who originally planned to see second-hand houses during the Spring Festival holiday, told the Huaxia times, "originally I wanted to have a holiday. I went to see the second-hand houses I had an intention to see before. It was too cold to go out when it snowed."
In the process of communicating with Ms. Wang, the reporter also learned that in addition to the weather, the decline of second-hand housing is also a reason for her hesitation. Ms. Wang introduced that several houses with good cost performance in Jinshui District and Zhengdong new area that she was concerned about had a large price reduction in half a year. For example, Ms. Wang is currently looking at a second-hand housing source in Zhengdong New Area. From April 2021 to November 2021, the price of the source has been reduced by 330000 in six months. After several price adjustments, the price has been adjusted from 1.6 million yuan to 1.27 million yuan, a decrease of more than 20%.
According to Ms. Wang, it is not uncommon for her to reduce the price of houses by about 200000 within half a year. It showed reporters several price changes of intended houses in the mobile phone. Among them, the price of a second-hand house in Jinshui District decreased by more than 200000 yuan in half a year
price changes of some second-hand houses. Picture provided by the interviewee
"Due to personal and family capital needs, eager to sell houses, resulting in a large decline in some second-hand houses." Liang Botao, President of Henan Branch of China Index Research Institute, said in an interview with Huaxia times that due to the pressure on Zhengzhou's overall economic situation last year, the downward employment environment, residents' income was affected to varying degrees. In addition, affected by floods and epidemic diseases, many self-employed businesses and business owners fell into difficulties, so there was a price reduction.
In the context of the discount promotion activities of the influx of new houses, although some second-hand house owners sell off, they are not as old as new houses, and the discount strength is not dominant. The second-hand house market in Zhengzhou is almost in a dilemma. The reporter of Huaxia times found that even though the average listing price of second-hand houses in Zhengzhou fell only 0.72% month on month in January 2021 to 15201 yuan / square meter, the trading volume fell by more than 50% month on month due to the recurrence of local epidemic. According to Ms. Wang, the intermediary agency entrusted by her has also had a holiday during the Spring Festival due to the depression of the second-hand housing market.
However, the reporter also learned that even if the second-hand housing has ushered in a small wave of price reduction, some second-hand housing prices are still strong and rise instead of falling.
According to Liang Botao's analysis, the area where the average price of second-hand houses rose in 2021 was mainly concentrated in the main urban area of Zhengzhou. Last year, due to the impact of the epidemic and flood, the number of delayed delivery and uncompleted projects increased, and consumers' home purchase mentality turned to second-hand houses. In addition, some just needed consumers were eager to buy existing houses, which promoted the local slight rise of second-hand house prices.
the school district is "strong"
Through the integration of public information, the reporter found that during the Spring Festival, discounts in the real estate market in Zhengzhou were common. Many real estate projects launched time limited activities to reduce the down payment, liquidate special offers, buy houses and send parking spaces, and even some projects made the slogan of free subsidies upon signing a contract. However, the price war did not change the downturn in Zhengzhou's real estate market. According to the data of 360 real estate network, the sales volume in Zhengzhou fell sharply during the Spring Festival holiday. In the sixth week of 2022 (January 31 - February 6), the trading volume of new houses was only 20, mainly concentrated in the main urban area.
"Compared with previous years, this year's Spring Festival is basically 'not returning home'." In an interview with Huaxia times, Ms. Guo, a real estate seller in Jinshui District, Zhengzhou, said that due to the restrictions of the epidemic and return policy, her customers in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing and other places did not return to Zhengzhou for the new year. "Compared with previous years, there is basically no trend of return home ownership".
The reporter also learned from Ms. Guo that the channel situation is similar to that of the case field, almost all of which are local tourists. "On the one hand, there is no home buyers. On the other hand, it is also the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. Out of caution about the market, they will decide whether to buy after a long time of consideration and comparison." Ms. Guo said.
According to Ms. Guo, her project is a large-scale school district house in Jinshui District, Zhengzhou. It has been on sale since 2019. At present, it is sold in phases 2 and 3, with a unit price of about 18000-19000 per square meter. "Compared with thousands of discounts for projects in the area, we have almost no discount. However, due to the particularity of school district houses, the situation of our project is fairly good." Ms. Guo spoke to the reporter of Huaxia times.
As for the market downturn and consumers' wait-and-see mood, Ms. Guo also told reporters, "Indeed, a small number of customers feel that house prices will fall. Due to the continuous promotion activities of real estate in the market, some potential customers choose to wait and wait until the real estate price falls to the psychological expectation. They hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market, especially after the repeated floods and epidemics."
However, there are still strong projects in the cold market of the Spring Festival. Through the investigation, the reporter also found that although there are preferential unit prices in Zhengzhou, most of the just needed houses, the improved houses and the house prices in the school district are relatively stable.
In this regard, Liang Botao analyzed to the reporter of Huaxia times that for the hot sector school district housing project, the school district is an important scarce resource that can not be copied in the sector. The psychological favor of home buyers for the school district has not been broken in the short term, and the demand is still greater than the supply. For the downward trend of the overall market, the price fluctuation of school district housing is relatively small.
In the process of talking with Ms. Guo, the reporter felt that those who step into the sales office in this "unusual" Spring Festival, whether they finally buy a house or not, are a warmth in winter for them who stick to their posts.
Ms. Guo also admitted that the trading volume did decline significantly compared with the first half of 2021. Consumers were on the sidelines, afraid of developers' thunder and even the uncompleted project, and the transaction cycle was obviously lengthened. "Even if it is a relatively good (project), the income has been affected, which is a relatively difficult period in the working time."
"little sunny spring" or difficult to meet expectations
In fact, the downturn of Zhengzhou property market is not only reflected in the Spring Festival, but also after the flood and epidemic in the second half of 2021. The China Index Research Institute mentioned in a series of reports that in 2021, Zhengzhou was affected by policy regulation, flood impact and epidemic counterattack. The real estate market moved forward with a heavy load, and the overall market was poor. The whole year was first raised and then restrained. Among them, due to the flood impact in the middle of the year and the epidemic counterattack, the market fell significantly in the second half of the year, the land transaction was dim, the real estate market was not well decontaminated, and the macro policy continued to work at the end of the year, Maintain the "three stabilities" and repair the market slowly.
So, after the low-temperature operation of Zhengzhou property market in the Spring Festival, can it still usher in the "little sunny spring" as promised?
In an interview with Huaxia times, Liang Botao said that in previous years, there would be a wave of spring Market in Zhengzhou property market, but in 2021, due to the impact of floods and multiple epidemics, the property market was under serious pressure and the overall market declined significantly. Near the end of the new year, there has also been a multi-point spread of the epidemic in China, and the number of home buyers returning home in the province has decreased sharply. At present, the confidence of real estate in Zhengzhou property market is still in the recovery period, and the wait-and-see mood of consumers will continue for some time. On the whole, the xiaoyangchun market in Zhengzhou property market will be difficult to meet expectations this year.
In this context, Liang Botao suggested that for private enterprises, it is suggested to actively consider joint land acquisition and joint development when acquiring land, so as to reduce their own capital pressure; It is suggested that real estate enterprises with abundant funds and good financial status should make overall and centralized use of funds, seize appropriate land acquisition opportunities in the first half of the year, reduce the delay of project development due to the impact of land sealing period and dust control in the second half of the year, resulting in capital precipitation, improve the efficiency of fund use, and promote the timely entry of projects into the market and rapid payment collection.
Looking forward to 2022, the China Index Research Institute mentioned in its report that it is expected that in 2022, Zhengzhou government may strengthen the promotion of urban reform projects to ensure the smooth implementation of urban reform projects, and the number of open land may continue to increase, so as to boost market confidence. Enterprises' land acquisition is mainly stable, and joint land acquisition may become more.
However, the China Index Research Institute also pointed out that it is expected that the real estate market confidence at the sales end of Zhengzhou will still be in the repair period in 2022. At present, the downward trend of the real estate market has not completely changed. The short-term market repair still needs time, just needed products will still be the main force of the market, the main transaction areas will still be the main urban areas, and the market in suburban counties will be in the recovery period.
