On February 10, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms, policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation. The opinion proposes to promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy. Focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases, upgrade and transform the existing coal-fired power units in the region, explore and establish a mechanism for coordination between the sending and receiving ends to provide regulation for the transmission of new energy power, and support the construction, combination and development of new energy power.
In fact, from 2021, under the guidance of the double carbon goal, relevant plans and policies to promote the scientific and efficient development of new energy have been accelerated, driving the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industry into a new stage of development. In 2021, the National Energy Administration successively formulated the guiding opinions on energy work in 2021 and the notice on matters related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021 to promote the development of clean energy industry. The wind power industry will benefit from the “sustainable investment” as two important directions of the policy.
On the other hand, policy guidance goes in the same direction as the new energy industry, and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is accelerating. According to the data of the national energy administration, the new installed capacity of wind power in China continues to grow. As the first year of the 14th five year plan, the newly added installed capacity of wind power in China will be 47.57gw in 2021; In particular, offshore wind power has sprung up, with an annual installed capacity of 16.90gw, a year-on-year increase of 452%. According to the Beijing Declaration on wind energy, in the 14th five year plan, the average annual new installed capacity should be more than 50gw. After 2025, the average annual new installed capacity of wind power in China should not be less than 60GW, at least 80gw by 2030 and at least 300gw by 2060.
speed up bidding and stabilize price
In order to accelerate the realization of the goal of “increasing the proportion of non fossil energy to about 20% of the total energy consumption”, the new layout of the wind power industry is scientific “capacity expansion”. This change is first reflected in the continuous rise in the scale of wind power bidding. According to the calculation of securities companies, the bidding volume of wind turbines in China in January 2022 was about 10.56gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 2.6 times and a month on month increase of nearly 40%, significantly higher than that in the same period of previous years. Among them, large bidding projects include China Resources Datang 5GW, Huaneng 3.11gw, China Resources 0.65gw, etc. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is estimated that the amount of offshore wind power bidding will exceed 15gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 21 times.
It is worth noting that after experiencing the rapid “parity” of wind power prices, the bidding price of wind power shows a stabilizing trend. During the interview, industry insiders conducted relevant calculations according to the public bidding information. The calculation results show that the arithmetic average price of monthly bidding for onshore fans in China has remained stable at around 2250 yuan / kW since October 2021. In particular, the arithmetic average price of the bidding price from January to February 2022 has rebounded compared with the end of 2021.
large scale + scientific and technological wind power enterprises reduce prices without reducing profits
In recent years, the large-scale units have accelerated the trend of cost reduction. According to the prediction of the Global Wind Energy Council, the power of offshore wind turbine will reach 15-17mw in 2025. The larger impeller means the better wind catching capacity, and the large-scale offshore fan will bring more power generation. It is understood that under the same conditions, if the impeller diameter is increased to 2 times, the power generation of the fan will be about 3 times of the original. At the same time, according to rystad energy, if the 1GW offshore wind power project adopts 14MW wind turbine, the investment will be saved by US $100 million compared with 10MW wind turbine.
Under the background of affordable Internet access, the response speed and cost reduction ability of wind turbine enterprises will become the key to this round of competition. The large-scale wind turbine is the mainstream way to reduce the hourly power cost of wind power. Under the same wind speed, the blades are longer, the swept area is larger, and the power generation is also increased accordingly; The higher the tower and the greater the shear value, the greater the value of wind energy utilization. At the same time, the large-scale unit effectively reduces the installation quantity of fans and the hoisting cost. At present, China’s offshore wind turbines have begun to move towards the level of 8-10mw, and onshore wind turbines are also developing to the level of 4-5mw, with a clear trend of high power.
At the “2021 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition” held in September last year, most wind turbines launched by machine manufacturers were 4.0mw and above. In terms of single machine scale, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) China offshore equipment and other complete machine manufacturers have launched wind turbines of more than 10MW.
In August 2021, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) launched myse16, the world’s largest 16mw offshore wind turbine 0-242, impeller diameter 242 m, which can meet the needs of fixed and floating offshore wind power development. In December, the world’s first anti typhoon floating offshore wind turbine developed by Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) was successfully connected to the grid for power generation in Yangjiang offshore wind farm, Guangdong Province, marking that China is the first country in the world to have the independent R & D, manufacturing, installation and operation capacity of large-capacity anti typhoon floating offshore wind turbine, which is of great significance to promote the manufacturing and upgrading of high-end offshore wind power equipment in China Tapping the potential of far-reaching sea wind energy resources is of positive significance.
At the same time, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) also said in response to investors’ questions that the company actively took various measures to continuously optimize its operation, such as cost control, cost reduction, improving R & D input-output rate, improving production and operation efficiency through lean manufacturing, and promoting the platformization, component modularization and equipment lightweight of unit equipment products. At the same time, the company also pays attention to common value creation and sharing in the construction of all excellent industrial chain, improves delivery efficiency and promotes the improvement of gross profit margin by cooperating with suppliers to reduce costs.
Benefiting from the continuous drive of cost reduction and efficiency increase measures such as large-scale, scientific and technological and industrial chain optimization, the leaders of the wind power industry have achieved good performance, and the prosperity of the industry continues to rise. On January 11, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) disclosed the 2021 annual performance forecast, which said that in 2021 Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) is expected to achieve a net profit of 430-550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.55% ~ 217.91%; On January 25, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.9 billion ~ 3.2 billion yuan, an increase of 111.05% ~ 132.88% year-on-year compared with 2020.
Industry insiders said that with the joint influence of factors such as the obvious decline of unit kilowatt cost caused by the large-scale wind turbine, the improvement of wind turbine efficiency and power generation caused by technological progress, the further improvement of the proportion of localization of parts and components, and the effective growth of supply scale, the process of price equalization in the wind power industry has been significantly accelerated, which has a great impact on the clean energy supply of the industry, the industry and even the whole society It is a process of sound development.
