Recently, listed real estate enterprises have successively announced the sales data in January. However, this is not a story of "hard work and happiness", but a "cold wind". Yihan think tank said in the research report that in terms of sales, the top 200 real estate enterprises decreased by 42.9% year-on-year in January 2022, continuing the cooling trend since July 2021. In 2022, real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of sluggish house purchase demand and sluggish sales.
On February 11, the shares of Zhengrong real estate and Zhengrong service plunged sharply. It is rumored that Zhengrong will no longer redeem a $200 million perpetual bond as planned. Subsequently, Zhengrong real estate responded that it would redeem us dollar bonds on schedule. It is noteworthy that since this year, in order to boost market confidence, many real estate enterprises have redeemed dollar bonds or put the redemption of overseas foreign debts on the agenda. Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) issued an announcement on early redemption of overseas US dollar bonds on February 7. Country garden also repurchased bonds. According to the monitoring of China Index Research Institute, since the beginning of 2022, the scale of repurchase of US dollar bonds by real estate companies has reached 1.28 billion yuan, and 14 enterprises have carried out share repurchase, with a repurchase amount of 203 million yuan. Repurchase has become the main means for real estate enterprises to boost confidence in the capital market and reduce risks.
repurchase boosts market confidence
Since the release of a series of regulatory policies such as the "three red lines", the overseas market became more and more worried about the risk tolerance of Chinese real estate enterprises last year, and the rolling mechanism of "borrowing new to repay old" of real estate enterprises was also tested. In the first half of 2021, the debt problems of many real estate enterprises broke out one after another, reducing the confidence of overseas bond investors.
At the press conference of the national development and Reform Commission on January 18, 2022, Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission, said that last year, some highly leveraged real estate enterprises defaulted on overseas bonds due to their own business problems, resulting in a brief panic in the real estate sector of the Chinese funded foreign debt market, which belongs to the self-regulation of the market, It will not affect the overall function of the Chinese funded foreign debt market. In the long run, the Chinese funded foreign debt market will further mature and improve.
In order to boost market confidence and avoid the risk of debt default, many real estate enterprises began to actively redeem the maturing US dollar bonds in the second half of 2021, and successively repurchase the company's shares, releasing relatively stable signals to the outside world through the repurchase of US dollar bonds.
Liu Shui, the research director of the enterprise business department of China Index Research Institute, told reporters that the purpose of active repurchase by real estate enterprises is to avoid the risk of debt default and credit crisis; The second is to reduce the level of debt ratio and promote enterprises to downshift; Finally, due to the industrial environment, real estate enterprises buy back overseas foreign debt.
Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, told the Securities Daily that due to the default of US dollar bonds of some real estate enterprises and the frequent reduction of credit ratings by international rating agencies, the overall credit structure of the real estate industry has been affected to a certain extent. Under this background, the repurchase of US dollar bonds and stocks by many real estate enterprises to a certain extent shows that they have a relatively abundant capital, Have certain confidence in their own development prospects, which plays a positive role in boosting market confidence.
However, active repo does not mean that real estate enterprises "have a good time". Liang Nan pointed out that in the current environment, real estate enterprises also need to strengthen the de commercialization efforts, increase sales collection, reduce investment actions, and ensure the adequacy of funds as much as possible. At the same time, if the enterprise's capital liquidity allows, they can repay debts in advance, avoid centralized payment of debts as much as possible, and strengthen the debt security boundary.
loose policy, market bottoming
One side is the active repurchase of real estate enterprises, and the other side is the "spring cold" sold by real estate enterprises in January. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) according to the research report, in January (as of the 28th, the data update of the Spring Festival holiday lags behind), the transaction area of commercial housing in 63 cities was - 30.10% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of the first, second and third lines was larger than that of the previous month. In the same period, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was - 34.18% year-on-year. Except for the marginal improvement trend in the first tier cities, the year-on-year growth rate decline in other cities has expanded. There is no trend improvement in sales, and the stability of demand side expectation needs the introduction of other supporting policies.
In January 2022, the national real estate regulation was 66 times, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, and the policies to stabilize the real estate market were frequently introduced. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told reporters that on the whole, the real estate regulation policy in the first year of 2022 continued the policy direction of the fourth quarter compared with the previous one. With the stability of the credit policy, the policies of stabilizing the real estate market around the country were frequently released. The most typical policy contents are loose reserve policy, talent subsidy and house purchase subsidy. From the central government to local provinces and cities, they are issuing policies to stabilize the property market. From the market point of view, with the emergence of the bottom of the policy, the bottom of market transactions is gradually approaching.
Zhang Dawei said: "it is expected that the overall market will still find the bottom in the first half of 2022 and the market will gradually get out of the downturn. From the capital chain of real estate enterprises, it will still be very difficult in the first half of 2022, but with the easing of policies, the market will gradually show signs of getting out of the downturn."
Liu Shui also said that under the pressure of sluggish house purchase demand and sluggish sales, in the short term, the strategy of real estate enterprises is to invest rationally and speed up marketing collection. In the long run, according to the development stage and trend of China's real estate market, it is the general trend to plan the transformation and upgrading of business model, enter the era of stock housing, and transform real estate enterprises from developers to service providers. Expand the second growth curve and open up asset light businesses such as real estate agency construction, asset management and commercial management.
