In the first week after the Spring Festival, more than 2900 stocks rose and more than 1600 stocks closed down in the A-share market. There were both stocks that continued to fluctuate upward and stocks that continued to decline significantly. The value stocks, white horse stocks and theme stocks that had been hyped for a long time in the early stage began to return rationally due to their overvaluation, showing a situation that a large-scale head has been built, while some long-term low price to book ratio At present, the stock exchange of the sector continues to move out of the low level, and the stock exchange of the industry is still in a stronger stage, especially at the bottom.
From a fundamental point of view, in addition to stabilizing the economy and advanced infrastructure, there are few possible bright spots. The rest depends on the new policies of the "two sessions". At present, the issuance of new funds is still less than expected. Whether the market can attract large-scale mainstream funds in the first quarter has a great impact on the annual market, and it is very important to keep up with mainstream funds.
From a technical point of view, taking the Shanghai stock index as an example, it still runs in the box from 3330 to 3730. As long as there are no stronger positive or negative factors than expected, it is unlikely to break through the box area. At present, the Shanghai stock index is located near the middle of the box, which can be up and down, and the distance from the top and bottom of the box is not very large, Generally speaking, it is an area that can be used for rolling operation of low absorption and high throwing. Combined with the different operation situation of each sector in the sector, the small-scale fluctuation can be basically ignored.
From the market level, the top gainers in the first week of the year of the tiger are coal oil, tourism and catering, transportation services, construction and transportation facilities, telecommunications operations, etc. due to seasonal relations, US Iran nuclear talks and other factors, the sustainability of the coal oil market is not necessarily reliable. Tourism, catering and transportation services are related to epidemic prevention. Pay more attention to epidemic prevention policies, construction and transportation facilities Telecom operators and others pay attention to the progress of advanced construction.
To sum up, in the past few years, it is suitable to choose the best to participate, choose the track and choose the leader; In the coming period, it is suitable to first exclude some industry sectors and individual stocks that are not suitable for participation with the exclusion method, and select individual stocks in some industry sectors with low price to book ratio, low price and low price that have not been concerned by the market for a long time; Avoid high priced, high priced and overvalued stocks. Even if some of them have fallen greatly, the process of return is far from over. For these stocks, any rebound can be regarded as an opportunity to escape.
(the author is a former senior investment consultant of CICC wealth securities)
